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| karennma 8,057 posts msg #130565 - Ignore karennma |
8/25/2016 7:19:35 AM NUGT split - looks like 5:1 |
| karennma 8,057 posts msg #130566 - Ignore karennma |
8/25/2016 7:24:17 AM Gold still flat since yesterday. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #130567 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/25/2016 10:56:44 AM Out of my position in REN at $17.20 for a gain of $504 after commissions - I had originally only had 350 shares short, but doubled down twice for a final of 1400 shares at $17.56. Poorly managed trade that played out in my favor. |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #130572 - Ignore mahkoh modified |
8/25/2016 2:46:13 PM I choose poorly managed profitable trades over perfectly managed losing trades without hesitation. |
| BarTune1 441 posts msg #130573 - Ignore BarTune1 |
8/25/2016 3:35:12 PM I'm out of REN at $16 .... bad trade but could have been a lot worse ... was short 3,600 shares |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #130574 - Ignore Eman93 |
8/25/2016 3:56:05 PM graftonian 188 posts msg #130553 - Ignore graftonian 8/24/2016 5:50:04 PM Could anyone explain the correlation between gold and the S&P 500? I offer this crude comparison. Is there a piece of the puzzle that I am missing? ================================================================ It like this.. the simple answer is more likely than not to be correct. You look at that chart and what do you see... it is not a big secret, its there to be seen. The investing world is made up of asset classes right? To be simple we have Commodities, Stocks, Bonds and Currencies. So most people need to sell something in order to buy something else (reallocate capital), be it bonds, stocks .. ect... so what you are seeing is people selling the spx and buying gold or vice versa.. gold is perceived to be a safe store of value in times of trouble. I watch the correlation between Dollar, TBills(TLT) and stocks(Thanks JP). |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #130577 - Ignore Eman93 |
8/25/2016 5:22:52 PM The fed speaks tomorrow at 10am as much as i want to go all in short at the moment I know better.. the theme of this market has been don't fight the fed! Let the doves fly DOW 20k..the great thing about trading is you only need to react and then get on the bus. |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #130578 - Ignore Eman93 modified |
8/25/2016 5:51:02 PM |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #130589 - Ignore Eman93 |
8/25/2016 10:08:39 PM MW UPDATE: Four technical factors that will show the direction of the stock market 8/25/16, 4:20 PM By Michael Kahn Investors' reaction to the Federal Reserve's meeting is key Although the stock market is basically on hold until Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen addresses the masses (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-going-out-to-jackson-hole-to-get-divorce-from-markets-2016-08-23) Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyo., it pays to watch a few key bits of data generously provided by the market itself. Traders will no doubt react quickly on a hint that the Fed will or will not once again raise short-term interest rates and when that might happen. However, it will be the market that tells us how all of that will play out past the initial knee-jerk reactions. Specifically, there are four ratios on the charts that hold the key, and each has to do with the market's mood for risk. They are small-capitalization stocks vs. large stocks, emerging markets vs. the U.S., copper vs. gold, and junk bonds vs. high-grade corporate bonds. Let's start with the ratio familiar to most investors, small caps vs. large caps. Typically we look at a ratio of the Russell 2000 to the S&P 500. When investors feel good and are more amenable to take risks in the stock market, this ratio moves higher. Small-caps outperform large caps, and many believe this is a necessary condition for a healthy bull market. Currently, this ratio is quite strong and has been most of the year: We can apply many technical studies to a ratio as easily as we can to individual stocks or indexes. While we do not want to get too fancy, we can rely on the basic analyses of trendlines and momentum indicators. As we can see in the chart, the trend is clear to the upside since February. It is above its major moving averages -- the 50- and 200-day -- which is bullish. And momentum, as indicated by most popular technical studies, is strong but not overbought. All of these factors tell us that small-caps are back in favor. The worry is that the ratio is already at resistance from turning points over the past few years and the trendline from early 2014 is nearby. Again, I don't want to place too much meaning on these factors, but they do exist and that suggests the ratio is at a crossroads. Conveniently, Yellen's speech will happen at the right time to spark either a breakout or a downside reversal. Which one occurs will be very important going forward. The next ratio is emerging markets to the world, and we can chart it using the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) divided by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). This ratio has been falling since 2010, so emerging markets have indeed suffered relative to the domestic market. However, the ratio started to rally in January and recently broke out to a 10-month high: It also moved above its major moving averages, so it is quite possible that the tide has turned and the bear market is over. The ratio currently sits on a short-term rising trendline from May. Should it continue lower to break that trendline, then we can conclude that bullishness in emerging markets may have been premature. And as with the Russell 2000 ratio above, should this ratio bounce off that trendline and head higher, then the chances for a sustained rally increase. When emerging markets outperform the U.S., we surmise the market is feeling feisty and willing to take more risks. Again, that is a characteristic of a healthy bull. The copper-to-gold ratio is interesting for two reasons. First, commodities in general tend to move inversely to the U.S. dollar as they are priced in dollars. A ratio of two metals naturally removes the dollar from consideration since both numerator and denominator are affected. However, the real reason to look at this ratio is that copper represents economic activity while gold represents hedging. Strong copper suggests more copper pipes for housing and more copper wires for manufacturing. Therefore, high demand and rising prices for copper from a strong economy are better than high demand for gold from nervous investors. Currently, the ratio as represented by the iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (JJC) divided by the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is still in a vicious bear decline: The latest leg of this decline started more than a year ago and it took the ratio below its major 2008 low at the bottom of the commodities debacle that year. This year, while stocks managed to rally to all-time highs even as this economic indicator fell to new lows, it would seem that it is a condition that cannot continue forever. Either copper picks itself up or stocks could fall. However, there are no technical indications on the charts that suggest the bearish trend is in any danger at this time. That is why it is very important to see if it reacts after Yellen's speech. If the Fed thinks the economy is strong enough for a rate hike but copper continues to fall both on an absolute basis and relative to gold, then something is likely to be wrong. When words and markets disagree, it is usually the market that is right. Finally, the ratio of junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds to quality corporate bonds can round out the quartet of risk-watching measures. As with the stock market ratios, when riskier junk bonds outperform safer high-grade bonds, we know the market is feeling more bullish. Right now, the ratio of the SPDR Barclays High-Yield Bond ETF (JNK) to the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is trading flat or sideways. (Please see below.) It did rally off very low levels starting in February but within a few weeks, it stalled. The reasons why this happened are not evident on the charts, but the pattern it left for us is quite useful. When the ratio finally starts to move one way or the other, it should become evident fairly quickly. A move higher would tell us investors are willing to take on more risk. A move lower would, of course, indicate the opposite. All four ratios are themes and variations on the market's risk-aversion profile. Since they originate in stock, commodity and bond markets, they give us a good indication of the overall condition, and that will help us interpret what Janet Yellen's words really mean beyond the surface jargon. -Michael Kahn; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires 08-25-16 1620ET |
| johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #130593 - Ignore johnpaulca |
8/26/2016 12:06:42 AM Thanks for the article Eman!! AG($13.49)....keep an eye out for this bad boy, looking to buy this and hold long term. Some support on daily is at $12.58, I will wait for gold futures to turn up and weakened dolla. |
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