| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options) | << 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 31 >>Post Follow-up |
| 15minofPham 169 posts msg #141301 - Ignore 15minofPham |
1/23/2018 10:04:50 PM Big Option Volume Play of the Day - QQQ A premium of $6.3 million on 24,852 of the 3/16 166 Put for $2.56 with stock at $169.50. This is a hedge play for a pullback. I normally don't pay attention to a lot of SPY, QQQ, IWM hedge plays, but when it's over $6 million, caution should be noted. Even if it's insurance, $6 million is not something to sneeze at. As with the market, QQQ has been going up non-stop with only two losing days this year which has elevated its daily RSI to 84.40. Break even on this play is $163.44 which means it needs to drop 3.58% in two months. DISCLOSURE: No position. Monday's spotlight - VMW 7K 7/20 160 Call $3.10, Stock $136.87 Gained 0.93% to close at $137.96 which is negligible so it didn't move the option price. May have to wait until earnings which is sometime first week in March. |
| 15minofPham 169 posts msg #141302 - Ignore 15minofPham |
1/23/2018 10:49:36 PM I've been keeping track of how big money plays have fared this year. These are the rules to streamline the tracking process. 1) Sell at 50/75/100% profits depending on your risk tolerance. Columns "Days to 50/75/100" show number of days it took to reach each level. Zero means it accomplished same day as purchase assuming you bought close to the big money price. Of course, almost all of us will continue to hold even after it reaches 100% until we see the trend has changed. Take FCAU 6/15 22 Call for example. It closed yesterday at $3.88 giving you an 870% gain. If you had invested $1K, this would give you a profit of $8700. But since everyone's risk tolerance is different, we'll assume we'll all sell at the aforementioned levels. This way it's easier to calculate the number of days. 2) Sell at 50% loss. 
As you can see the win-loss record is 67%. The plays with the dash in Current column means it was sold since it hit 100%. The win-loss record for CLOSING plays is 9-1 so your profits would be $8500 in three weeks. We'll have to see how the open plays pan out. |
| shillllihs 6,045 posts msg #141306 - Ignore shillllihs |
1/23/2018 11:33:25 PM Intriguing. |
| 15minofPham 169 posts msg #141308 - Ignore 15minofPham |
1/24/2018 1:15:48 AM I wish we could edit messages. I forgot to note that Light Blue color is a win and Salmon a loss. The only loss so far was XLP 3/16 57 Put which was sold when it hit -50%. MLCO shouldn't have any numbers in the Days to 50/75/100 as it hasn't reached it yet. It was a mistake due to pasting from the column above, MAT. |
| four 5,087 posts msg #141309 - Ignore four modified |
1/24/2018 1:41:07 AM 15min, There is a limited time to edit: Example from one of my previous posts that is still editable. Look for this area in your message (left-side of screen) and find the last line/link (see my bolded item below): four 4,079 posts msg #141294 - Edit message -- -- -- -- After my first edit (modified is added AND I can edit again): - Edit message modified |
| 15minofPham 169 posts msg #141325 - Ignore 15minofPham modified |
1/24/2018 12:35:13 PM Four, I didn't see an "edit" link so maybe I waited too long. Wonder what the time frame is? I see it now on this message!!! Thanks! |
| mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #141330 - Ignore mahkoh |
1/24/2018 2:40:05 PM $ 13 million trade on RH around noon when 3.415 Jan '19 calls for the 70 strike were bought. With the stock at 103.05 and the options trading for 37.9 there's only some 5 $ extrinsic value, which means this trade could be considered as an outright buy of the stock. |
| gmg733 788 posts msg #141336 - Ignore gmg733 |
1/24/2018 4:20:15 PM What condition are you looking at? Regular? I saw in another post where you mentioned other types. I'm curious what he primary condition. Thnx. |
| 15minofPham 169 posts msg #141347 - Ignore 15minofPham |
1/24/2018 10:26:23 PM I've been researching opening range 30 minute high breakout and if you approach it correctly you can make massive money via options. The best time to use this method is during earnings season since it can move so fast after a good beat. The key is that it needs to take out the initial 30 minute high as quickly as possible, preferably right away and no later than 1- 1 1/2 hours after the market open. Any later than this & you'll see a lot of head fakes and you won't have enough time to clear profits since there's no guarantee there's going to be a follow through day the next day. Let's take GD today for example. Its initial 30 minute high was $212.85. My entry would've been +.10 so $212.95. GD has weekly options & since today is only Tuesday I would've bought the 1/26 215 Call. You can also buy the 210, but looking at the daily chart I thought it could take out the 10/13 214.81 high or at least reach that level again. The option closed at .35 after 30 minutes so could've gotten in at .45. It went as high as $4.10 and closed at $3.30. Let's say you sold at EOD, your gain would've been 633%. Investing 1K gave you $6333 in profits! Of course you don't have to wait until EOD. Depending on your risk tolerance, you can sell at 50% or 100%. Once it clears the level you're comfortable with, either sell half or put a trailing stop. Put a stop loss between 30-50% after purchase. I wouldn't do anything less because options move so fast that you would be stopped out too often then realize it was just a head fake. Unfortunately that was the only such play today. I paper traded last quarter to see how well it would work. I tried 5 minute, 15 & 30. I feel more comfortable with the latter since by then the market has pretty much settled. Of course waiting longer will make you leave a lot of profits on the table, but on the other hand it keeps you from being stopped out on head fakes. I stopped after a month because the profits were outstanding. The final profits were $180K from 61 trades with the best trade at $16K. There were five trades over $10K while the rest were mainly 1-5K. Note these were all DAY trades which will require that you have 25K. One way to get around is sell it the next morning. Caveat: Not sure if last earnings was an aberration because this earnings so far have not seen similar continuation. Most gap up have been immediately faded or gone sideways. I haven't traded real money due to this, but I will start jumping in from here on. Here's to your success!!! |
| gmg733 788 posts msg #141348 - Ignore gmg733 |
1/24/2018 10:40:34 PM Volatility is always the highest at the open, a good reason why 30 minute worked out best for you because vol settles in after about the first 10 minutes or so. Why did you pick GD as an example? If you wanna take a page from the TRO milk the cows hand book you could probably use this method every day on AAPL, NFLX, etc and highly liquid instruments with tight bid/ask spread. With GD you are giving up a lot in the B/A spread. Thoughts? |
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