shillllihs
6,045 posts
msg #140157
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/16/2017 9:56:03 PM
I think shorting SOXS is better for the decay but I think long Soxl is a good trade.
Shorting SOXS, you can set a stop loss somewhere above that and exit and re-enter,
If it goes below again. Just what I'm doing.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #140218
- Ignore sandjco |
12/19/2017 9:09:18 AM
Yes...ultimately, I would like to be able to "short" as well. Right now, I'm more focused in being able to take the "signals" generated by SF and decide to take it or not (correctly) and then be able to figure the exits (I'm also not very good with SF yet to be able to code an exit) while keeping it simple (which is one of my goals).
So far, I'm happy with what I've been able to do (with everyone's help here)...but hey, everyone is a genius in a bull market right? How will I fare in a bear market? I don't know and right now...it doesn't matter.
One day, I'd like to just be able to look at the price and the volume and be able to trade it accordingly.
Right now, Im thinking I should bail on XIV....but my other brain tells me, let it ride and see if it triggers my mental exit.
Thanks for dropping by shill!
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #140494
- Ignore sandjco |
12/30/2017 10:05:01 AM
All cash now. Sold XIV using EOD price of $134.44 for a gain (8%). Sold SOXL $137.90 for a slight loss (2%) and CWEB at $51.08 for a slight gain (7%).
Overall, looking back, I think I did well (despite not really following my rules to the T). Portfolio grew, albeit, with more trading costs and didn't beat B&H XIV. XIV was at $82.40 when I started here; it is now $134.44 or 59%. As expected, portfolio growth (or being able to minimize possible losses) was dictated (outside of trading) by position sizing/trading in tranches.
Going forward, I would want to (1) minimize my "second guessing" in entries and exits, (2) mentally, train myself to "move on" after selling a position instead of kicking myself for not holding on holder - a win is a win, (3) continue to find myself - swing, scalp, BnH add on dips, or ??? (or does it really matter), and (4) learn and understand more about the functionalities provided by SF.
Comments/Feedback, as always, are welcome.
Happy New Year everyone and thank you very much for sharing and teaching me. I look forward to learning more with the SF community in 2018.
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shillllihs
6,045 posts
msg #140496
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/30/2017 11:48:45 AM
it's taken several years, but now that I am in the upper echelon of traders if not the worlds greatest trader, Ithe only thing I can say is, that no matter how much advice someone gives, they will refuse to heed it. Do you know how many times of given my world class opinion only to have it rebuffed? It would have saved 10's of thousands in losses but bottom line, most everyone wants to be the it guy.
Having said that, what I've learned is swing trading is king, using ETFs for safety.
I've compiled a list of 10 go to filters, four of which constitute my entries and exits. I use the others as confirmation. I've gone almost exclusively to shorting ETFs. My success ratio is well over 90% I'm not worried about drawdowns since I'm well diversified. My biggest problem has been entering trades too early and exiting too early. I am working on this. Entering early chips away at your gains.
The other thing I will never do again is follow anyone's trades unless looking for confirmation. Following others is a proven recipe for failure. Also, don't blend too many systems.
Don't let boredom get in the way of trading like I just did by buying frivolous options. Dumb idea.
I have never been so comfortable in my life as I am now in my trading.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #140510
- Ignore sandjco |
12/30/2017 11:46:53 PM
Thanks Shils!
- Use ETF. Check.
- No options. Noted.
- Swing. Don't know if that is what I do (guess I have to add to the "shorting" component or buy the inverse).
- Don't follow someone's trade unless to confirm. Check.
- Don't blend too many systems. Check.
- Don't let boredom get in the way. Check (surprised about my patience).
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #140512
- Ignore mahkoh |
12/31/2017 11:13:28 AM
Options are OK so long as you are selling them.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #140516
- Ignore pthomas215 |
12/31/2017 12:00:50 PM
mahkoh, are you really arguing the only way to get decent margins on options is buying puts? It seems like on some stocks like Micron last fall, once you get the weekly MA crossover up your odds of a long call option success are pretty good. thoughts?
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shillllihs
6,045 posts
msg #140519
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
12/31/2017 2:15:13 PM
I didn't mean options were bad, just getting involved with something idk. much about out of sheer boredom was a bad idea.
One problem that could arise from buying options is, you know the eventual direction, but the timing is off.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #140558
- Ignore sandjco |
1/1/2018 12:18:27 PM
RE: Options
To be clear, I didn't take it as Options were "bad". I understand that I shouldn't really go balls out on something I do not have the required knowledge or experience. I know I've lucked out on playing the TSLA bounce using options. I know it could've gone bad quickly. I need to learn more about it before I play.
For 2018...I will stick to the basics. Plan the trade; trade the plan. ETFs (and maybe the big techs).
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #140567
- Ignore mahkoh |
1/1/2018 3:48:46 PM
Like Shillis mentioned, if you know for sure that you have direction, magnitude and timing right options are a great way to achieve leverage with limited risk. However, if you are not entirely right about all three you lose.
Going for deep in the money options that have a shelf life of 3 months or more gives you some room for error, but comes at the cost of lower roi. You''ll probably also have to deal with higher spreads.
For me personally, I have traded options for some 10 years, but have only turned profitable when I became a premium seller.
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