rrobin
1 posts
msg #106425
- Ignore rrobin |
5/26/2012 9:22:04 AM
pop
|
dave_r
1 posts
msg #114841
- Ignore dave_r |
8/11/2013 8:27:24 PM
I have a question about the risk side ofTheRumpledOne's one percent pop filter (see below).
Currently Today's filter is showing for LITB:
1% Pops = 94%
Last = 20.94
AvgRng = 1.96
... so the average range is approx 10% of the stock price. Over a hundred days, I would expect to make 1% on 94 of those days. But on 6 of those days lose up to 10%, if I set my stop loss to the average range.
So,
win = 1% x 94 = 94%
max loss = 10% x 6 = 60%
expected profit = 94 - 60 = 34% x amount staked.
However, I may not always be stopped out, when I do not make 1%, so maybe a more realistic figure is probably a loss of 40%, giving expected profit of around 54% x stake.
Can anyone, see holes in this calculation?
|
mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #114852
- Ignore mahkoh |
8/12/2013 4:43:37 PM
You can take the gaps up that were over 1% into account, those will close at the open for a larger profit.
As you'll be dealing with lower priced stocks you may want to consider commissions.
I tried this strategy and even created a short version to be "market neutral", choosing an equal number of overnight pops and drops. Worked like a charm for three weeks on paper, and then for some reason it stopped working the minute I started trading it with real money.
|
TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #127141
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
2/4/2016 12:02:48 PM
Still works after all these years!
|
Mactheriverrat
3,153 posts
msg #127152
- Ignore Mactheriverrat |
2/4/2016 5:01:25 PM
Welcome back TRO
Yes RFR still works real well. I use the /* RUN FOREST, RUN for 1 day 8 pct gain or more*/
and 13th_floors Deadly Combo
|
SFMc01
358 posts
msg #127369
- Ignore SFMc01 |
2/20/2016 11:44:41 AM
TheRumpledOne: Respectfully to clarify things, after 554 posits and many years, would you mind posting the "Run Forest Run" filter that you presently use?
Thank you,
Steve
|
ron22
255 posts
msg #138027
- Ignore ron22 |
9/7/2017 3:56:29 PM
TRO, You state below: "stock starts to move up and you enter". What is your entry price? a percentage of Average Run? or a percentage of ADR? or something else? Please educate a newbie. Thank you.
6,359 posts
msg #63711
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
6/15/2008 1:17:46 PM
How to trade using the TRAVEL information?
Think about it...
Market opens, stock starts to move up and you enter...
Price reaches average RUN, time to sell part of your position to lock in profit.
Price stalls and you exit the rest.
Price now drops below open to the average drop, you enter part of your position because price stalls.
Price drops more, stops and reverses, you can enter the rest of your position or wait.
Price bounces back to average bounce. You exit again.
Two trades, both profitable, more than 2% gains.
Do this every day and YOU'RE RICH!
|
DBFETCH
2 posts
msg #139667
- Ignore DBFETCH |
11/30/2017 2:42:33 PM
Some really great stuff here TheRumpledOne for this newbie. What is the plot of Weekly ziphix showing me? Thanks!! dbfetch
|
TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #140069
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/13/2017 3:39:01 PM
Filters have not changed in years... BECAUSE THEY WORK!
For those who still have stop loss questions, watch my video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQQTXx6yYFc
|
manojb21
16 posts
msg #149712
- Ignore manojb21 |
11/29/2019 2:39:06 AM
Hi TRO,
There are so many filters in this thread and each has multiple versions .. could you please post the final version of the RFR filter ? I would prefer the one which works for swing trading..
|