shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #150415
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/19/2020 7:31:49 PM
Just for discussion to make those uncomfortable with shorting feel better.
Hypothetically assuming you place a 20k trade shorting a stock how much of a buffer would you need to feel comfortable assuming some stocks can go up 600% or more. In other words what would be your account size or ratio.
Your system is ideal for someone who is broke ass with nothing to lose in case of a real bad spike, will they close you out before it gets real bad and or is there a way to get off the hook or set it up where they can't get your assets.
And I still contend since you are never really going All in in real life your return will be more in line with a decent long system without the risk of unlimited losses. For sure you will claim your system never losses 600% but it has lost 50-100% so it is possible. I mean if you were going to be honest you would say you might be playing 2-5% per stock plus subtracting borrowing fees. So what are you making then? That's the real deal.
|
KSK8
561 posts
msg #150416
- Ignore KSK8 |
1/19/2020 9:13:56 PM
I've already warned about the brutal drawdowns and the risks it encompasses. But to clarify, there is not one stock from any filter I've posted which spiked even close to "600%" the following day.
That aside, note, I've capitalized multiple 10%er's in a row. I could allocate even a small fraction of the portfolio into candidates and it would still outperform practically any other system by a large margin.
If I really wanted to, I could probably reach #1 on that 2nd rate hedge fund site in just a few months.
|
shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #150417
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/19/2020 9:44:41 PM
Maybe you would make it top 1 in a few months, but even those 2nd rate members would sniff out the fact that it's a Monopoly Money system so you wouldn't make a dime.
|
SFMc01
358 posts
msg #150843
- Ignore SFMc01 |
2/21/2020 12:12:51 PM
KSK8: Haven't seen any trades posted in almost a month. Are u still trading Shorts at OPEN?
Steve Mc
|
KSK8
561 posts
msg #150847
- Ignore KSK8 |
2/21/2020 5:13:47 PM
Been on vacation.
|
SFMc01
358 posts
msg #155429
- Ignore SFMc01 |
1/25/2021 8:26:08 AM
KSK8: Hope trading has been going well for you. Are you still trading this filter? Have the results held up?
Steve
|
Nobody
404 posts
msg #159590
- Ignore Nobody |
9/15/2022 1:08:55 PM
KSK8
Well played sir - you're doing great
Cheers
|
KSK8
561 posts
msg #159598
- Ignore KSK8 |
9/18/2022 6:41:37 AM
Even with it's high accuracy and profitability, surprisingly , this region of shorting has yet to be eroded.
|
redversa721
159 posts
msg #162156
- Ignore redversa721 |
8/20/2026 10:42:47 AM
I have traded a version of KSK8's strategy for over 2 years
I actually trade around close and try to exit before extended trading is over
Sometimes I also double dip and follow KSK8's morning strat but I typically get out when profit is 10% or more and dont leave till close.
So far i started around june 2024, started with 30K at centerpoint
ran it up to 60K by Sep 2024, then my big red day happened. I left a stock overnight and went out of town [Big FUBAR]
stock went 1600% in extended hours and 60K account was margin called and was left with 12K or so
Until then I had a 95% success rate and was morose for a few months on losing 30K of profit and and additional 18K of my capital.
was stewing for a few months, went back to drawing board and found out ideal stop loss is at approx 200%. I had never simulated a multi hundred percent after hours banger [You have to understand these junk stocks are already at 200-300 percent up during the day and it is unexpected that they have a 1600% run in after hours]
It was a black swan event and a humbling distasteful day.
Around may 2025, i added another 18K in capital and started again at 30K
From May 2025- Dec 2025, I trade at around 3-5% account value per trade
take profit is around 12 percent
I seldom hold overnight and the three or four times I held overnight, the overnight borrow fees killed me
by Dec 2025, account balance reached 70K again
Starting Dec 2025, i gained more confidence again and increased per trade to 6-7% and results have been stunning
I just crossed 152K in account value, basically doubled my account value since Jan 2026
5X account value since May 2025 [2nd start]
take-away:
-So n a 30K account, with a 2K trade, your stop loss should be set at a 4K loss. [200 percent SL]
-ideal take profit is approx 16% but again I am nervous and get out when have a 12-13 percent profit
-check locate fees , I keep locate fees at less than 5% of potential profit amt
-i also check borrow rates, anything more than 200%APY i skip them unless it is a pure pum and dump
-I personally also check fundamentals and see if there are any ATM offerings as this will dilute the stock which is great for this strategy
Thanks to KSK8 for sharing his strategy
|