StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up
KSK8
453 posts
msg #145728
Ignore KSK8
modified
12/27/2018 11:15:09 AM

I am going to go ahead and explain this filter which I should have done earlier;

WHY THIS FILTER HAS SUCH A HIGH WIN RATE:

The reason this has such a huge accuracy is because of a number of factors that transpire which gives more weight to the next day being bearish.

Essentially the prospect of the filter is based upon extreme price exhaustion and bagholders dumping their shares. This creates a manifestation of panic.

Explanation of the criteria:

-Stocks under $5 are typically unsuccessful companies so whenever there is a large move to the upside, a lot of bagholders will be taking their profits and getting out creating selling pressure.

-The RSI(2) crossing above 98 component signifies price exhaustion from a technical standpoint. This being a huge bearish indication of a 1 bar pullback or a large reversal. One of those factors will happen. So it is better to assume its a 1 bar pullback and take the short trade as the rules go.

-The close is 10% below the high criteria in this tells us that the stock failed to break to higher highs intraday giving a strong signal the move is out of power and weakness is now in play.

-When there is over 50,000,000 worth of liquidity for a stock that prior had liquidity minuscule to that number, this gives the ability for fakeouts to transpire since there are too many new traders and investors trading the stock for this particular day.

--------------------------------------

With all these in play, you can bet with little doubt the next trading secession will indeed be bearish! That next day is what we want to play, NOT the next several days. I don't care what happens after because it could keep running after the expected bearish move, who knows! But what we do know is there is a high probability the stock will undergo a bearish day after its big green day.

In terms of profitability, until presented another one, this stands as THE most profitable filter on stockfetcher.

However the caveat is you need the correct broker because tdameritrade, robinhood,etrade, and traditional brokers WILL NOT have the shares you need to borrow in order to short. Centerpoint Securities and Speedtrader however are notorious for having shares to short because you have the ability to locate and route your own shares.


Now go put it to work before telling me I am wrong!

-KSK8

ron22
183 posts
msg #145730
Ignore ron22
12/27/2018 2:18:39 PM

KSK8 or anyone else, I only have an IRA account and cannot short stocks. Is there a way to reverse the criteria to make this a long filter?

KSK8
453 posts
msg #145732
Ignore KSK8
12/27/2018 3:28:33 PM

ron22,

The inverse of this system unfortunately just does not work. This whole concept is based upon a number of factors that can't be flipped to the bullish side such as bagholders dumping their shares and the prospect of panic selling. Phenomenons like these make this system work beautifully. The challenge for a lot of people however regards finding shares to short of hard-to-borrow stocks which can be done easily if you have a broker that allows you to route and locate shares by yourself.



shillllihs
5,255 posts
msg #145733
Ignore shillllihs
12/27/2018 4:40:07 PM

This could have been a good gap fill filter but several spikes early in the year.
Very intersting but I think we all know that with the limited selections and the probable lack of humongous shares, even though you can probably find them at the other brokerage, it’s not practical. Go create an ultimate TQQQ SQQQ system, now that would be The Holy Grail.
You want a 100% system so far, leveraged inverse ETFs, most fill fast but some may take a couple years.

ron22
183 posts
msg #145734
Ignore ron22
12/27/2018 6:30:38 PM

KSK8, Thank you for explaining why the inverse of your system will not work.

ron22
183 posts
msg #145735
Ignore ron22
12/27/2018 6:35:05 PM

Shills, I like your SQQQ fill idea with 100% winners. My problem is that I do not have the patience to wait two years for the super slow fills. Also, the drawdowns would keep me up at night. Do not misunderstand me, it is a great idea for the right person.

KSK8
453 posts
msg #145736
Ignore KSK8
12/27/2018 6:45:03 PM

Then post it shillllihs!

I am willing to wager $50,000 that going forward whatever system filter you want to post will NOT be able to outperform mine on a monthly basis. Unless you trade with million dollar positions at a time then I am confident anyone would agree.

Also I am pretty sure I read somewhere in the forums you traded XIV with a "system" of your's.

Please let me know how XIV is doing for ya!

LOL

shillllihs
5,255 posts
msg #145737
Ignore shillllihs
modified
12/27/2018 7:28:05 PM

You are correct Ron that it’s a problem, but it’s THE ONLY TRUE 100% play.
Right now DWT, DRIP are about a 60% profit play and virtually sure things if it takes 1 day or 1 year.
But I truly agree without discipline it can’t be done.

K, I’m sorry, you’re right, continue putting 200,000. - 1million on 1 short position stock.
We all know you don’t believe it’s plausible, hence the reason you are here and so frustrated.
Sounds real safe and we know there are that many shares available, not to mention there are not many opportunities with the filter.
As far as Xiv goes, I made just under 470k trading it, and I sorely miss it. If you read my last thread you will see that I was telling Kevin to be out and it was dipping. Wish SVXY performed like Xiv. I had a system of being in and out of Xiv and it worked 96% of the time so I cleaned up, but it no longer works with Svxy.
I understand you want a pat on the back and want to feel shiny, so good job!

KSK8
453 posts
msg #145739
Ignore KSK8
12/27/2018 8:06:15 PM

Shillllihs your patronizing speaks for itself.

I asked you to post the filter you keep gloating about. Instead, you attempt to justify your decimated no-longer existing system which was supposed to have a very strong win rate. However I will be honest, for a strategy that sounds so solid, I really overrated my anticipation of your success with it. A 95% win rate system on a very liquid tradeable asset should farm well over just half a mill with the proper capital.

But oh well,

I suppose I overrated you Shillllihs .

Pity..




shillllihs
5,255 posts
msg #145740
Ignore shillllihs
modified
12/27/2018 8:32:59 PM

I couldn’t handle staying in 1 Etf too long. A lot of second guessing. I agree I should have made at least 2-
3 mill. That was on Xiv not to mention the shorts I had on at the time in tvix and Uvxy, plus the longs I’ve had in over 70 penny stocks over those few years. It took me a long time to perfect Xiv. I’ve made millions in the market. I’ve lost money since Sept. and this is the worst stretch I’ve had since I was in my 20s. I didn’t expect this much of a dip, but made some back this week. You were referring to just Xiv were you not?
But in any case you have a kool novelty filter.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up

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