StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up
nibor100
524 posts
msg #145708
Ignore nibor100
12/24/2018 10:04:50 PM

@KSK8,

Here's a tip for you, if you want to own a thread on SF make it read only, otherwise expect to get what you ask for....

Being a mathematician and retired cost analyst I've seen many, many claims of profit making strategies that don't hold up when actual data is provided for all to see and analyze. Which is the primary reason I asked all of my questions which I still believe to be serious in nature.

So I hope you are as patient with me as I use my own patience and understanding to sort thru the assorted text claims and rants you've provided until some actual data appears. ( note the use of the English language in regards to the words patient/patience)

1. Historical backtest data when further back than 3 years is often full of survivorship bias due to stocks being delisted over time and secondly the universe of stocks that the backtest may have been conducted upon, may differ in many ways from the current universe of stocks that SF deals with.

2. Max Drawdown info is key info for many traders to consider when choosing which strategies to follow.

Even my simple 10 days quicklook of your filter results showed 1 of your short picks surging higher after the open by more than 70% before the days close, which usually is not a good situation for shorts to be in.

Other times Max Drawdown data leads to discovery of chains of consecutive losing trades that some traders might not want to deal with. But without any actual data who knows?

3. I'll be among the first to praise your strategy and filter if the data required to answer those questions is ever provided and proves out your claims.

I've come up with a few more less serious questions related to the filter you provided:

a. what is the point of your "offset is 0" line it looks like its superfluous to me.

b. What is the purpose of the 30 filter lines after the mysterious "close is 10% below high" line? Those lines seem to have absolutely nothing to do with finding the stock selections that we are supposed to short, unless there is something else you haven't told us about this strategy?

Perhaps those lines present some additional decision criteria for evaluating whether or not to pull the trigger on the shorts? Bur, surely you wouldn't need them since the strategy is already so perfect.

You could have just as easily claimed 20 years of results and 98% accuracy or 1 month of results and 100% accuracy and it would still read to many of us as all text no fact!

By the way I have no problem being in the same boat as Mactheriverrat.
Actually it is a preferred boat to that of the hype dinghy that you seem to be captaining.

Thanks again for your patience,
Ed S.









KSK8
453 posts
msg #145711
Ignore KSK8
modified
12/25/2018 12:38:06 AM

nibor,

In statistics when you analyze a stochastic series (this is nothing to do with the stochastic oscillator)..the representative sample for an infinite population is 967 (or above) cases tested. Only then you can be probabilistically sure that a rule has been born. Over the past 14 years for this specific system there has been well over that sample number.

To answer your drawdown concern in a simple approach;

Show me a stock produced by this filter that closed over 70%. Good luck finding one because scenarios like so don't exist. And 14 years of data tells me it won't! RULE OF 967!
Also you can't make the argument that it won't work live trading because it does work !! LOL

Now to address your minor questions;

The point of the "offset is 0" is for those who don't have a subscription would still have the ability to look back into data to see the historical results. Now the purpose of the columns based upon price movement are all for my own leisure because despite being 100% mechanical I feel it is always educational to know what the stock has been doing prior to the criteria transpiring and that is how I gauge price action prior to the current session.

"it is a preferred boat to that of the hype dinghy that you seem to be captaining"

You can insult me all you want but at the end of the day you haven't posted a better system filter. I'd like to see you do so, but I am confident you CAN'T.

Cheers & Merry Christmas!

KSK8


shillllihs
5,255 posts
msg #145714
Ignore shillllihs
modified
12/26/2018 3:37:14 AM

Not that I was trying to create a better filter than anyone for shorting but after partying for 2 days I felt I needed to create something. You guys don’t need to like it but what do you all think?
I call it,

Fukin Good Short
Fetcher[ show stocks where open is more than 10% above close 1 day ago
price is above 5
draw ema(4)
draw ema(9)
draw ma(20)
add column Average Volume(30)
* 49 is number of consecutive days ema(4) above (+)/below(-) previous EMA(9) */
set{49b,days( ema(4) is above EMA(9) ,250)}
set{49a,days( ema(4) is below EMA(9) ,250)}
set{49, 49a - 49b} and add column 49 {49}
do not Draw 49
draw Upper Bollinger Band(20,2)
draw Bollinger Width(20,2.0) line at 6 month low
Set{cnt49,count( eMA(4) > eMA(9) ,1)}
draw cnt49
Set{cnt49b,count( eMA(4)< EMA(9) ,1)}
draw cnt49b
]



Maybe I didn’t create the whole thing but altered some stuff, I’m really drunk so not sure but looks real good.
Does this beat your filter?


KSK8
453 posts
msg #145715
Ignore KSK8
12/26/2018 11:33:00 AM

If you were truly intoxicated and were able to create such a filter I applaud the endeavor but I don't think this filter adds any generic value to mine unless I am not seeing something in it. It does look appealing though.

shillllihs
5,255 posts
msg #145716
Ignore shillllihs
12/26/2018 3:09:24 PM

Yeah was drunk.
Not an improvement on your filter but possibly a better overall filter.
Price above 5 and more easily shortable stocks. But whatever, don’t use it.



KSK8
453 posts
msg #145717
Ignore KSK8
12/26/2018 3:46:15 PM

Its NOT difficult to short stocks under a $1 using Centerpoint. I don't know what old fashion broker you use shillllihs but go google Centerpoint Securities.

But high-5 for the effort!

Maybe one day you'll craft an improved version.

Mactheriverrat
2,366 posts
msg #145721
Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified
12/26/2018 9:35:17 PM

deleted - you wanted a shorting filter

KSK8
453 posts
msg #145722
Ignore KSK8
12/26/2018 10:30:30 PM

Mac,

I encourage you to improve upon it rather than compete, perhaps tinkering with the criteria may yield more plays or more of a return, the possibilities are endless!

Mactheriverrat
2,366 posts
msg #145723
Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified
12/26/2018 11:00:22 PM

Roger that! The possibilities are endless!
;-)

johnpaulca
12,034 posts
msg #145724
Ignore johnpaulca
12/27/2018 12:13:01 AM

Why would anyone try to improve on a filter that yields a 95% win rate? If this correct then it would be the best filter ever posted on SF and kudos KSK8.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BEHOLD THE HOLY GRAIL<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up

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