ron22
255 posts
msg #156158
- Ignore ron22
modified |
3/16/2021 10:19:27 AM
I heard somewhere that 50% TMF/50% TQQQ with quarterly rebalancing is a good strategy.
I would like your comments regarding:
1. Do you agree that TMF/TQQQ is a good strategy?
2. Forgive my ignorance: Does rebalancing mean adjusting the number of shares quarterly so that the value of TMF and TQQQ each amount to 50% value for this investment?
3. I realize that TMF and TQQQ are not correlated, but is it not possible for TMF to only go up 4% while TQQQ goes down 22%?
Also, what is your opinion of investing in ARK funds short term or long term?
Thank you for your input (pros and cons). Ron
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shillllihs
6,045 posts
msg #156160
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
3/16/2021 2:24:31 PM
I figured this out years ago, I’ve discussed it with Xarlor.
I forget the proportion either 1-1 or 2-1. Trend has been good for a decade but no guarantees.
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snappyfrog
721 posts
msg #156161
- Ignore snappyfrog |
3/16/2021 4:04:15 PM
I am a fan of ARK funds. I look at their holdings and Daily buy / sells. I keep buying more each week for long hold.
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VirginTrader
73 posts
msg #156162
- Ignore VirginTrader |
3/16/2021 6:04:48 PM
@ron22
maybe this site can help you with some of the answers..
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/
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ron22
255 posts
msg #156167
- Ignore ron22 |
3/16/2021 11:00:06 PM
shilllihs,snappyfrog, & Virgin Trader, Thank you all for your comments. It is helpful to have other opinions when evaluating trading alternatives. Ron
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davesaint86
725 posts
msg #156171
- Ignore davesaint86 |
3/17/2021 7:49:16 PM
Here is TQQQ/TMF Quarterly
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=100000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=3&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=SPY&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=3-QLD+TYD+50+50&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=TMF&allocation1_1=50&symbol2=TQQQ&allocation2_1=50
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davesaint86
725 posts
msg #156172
- Ignore davesaint86 |
3/17/2021 7:50:08 PM
Here is QLD/TYD Quarterly
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=100000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=3&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=SPY&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=3-QLD+TYD+50+50&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=TYD&allocation1_1=50&symbol2=QLD&allocation2_1=50
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davesaint86
725 posts
msg #156173
- Ignore davesaint86 |
3/17/2021 7:54:24 PM
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&savedModelList=3-TQQQ+Q%3AD+QQQ+TMF+UBT+TLT&timingModel=9&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=100000&periodicAdjustment=0&adjustmentAmount=0&inflationAdjusted=true&adjustmentPercentage=0.0&adjustmentFrequency=4&symbols=TQQQ+QLD+QQQ+TMF+UBT+TLT&singleAbsoluteMomentum=false&volatilityTarget=9.0&downsideVolatility=false&outOfMarketStartMonth=5&outOfMarketEndMonth=10&outOfMarketAssetType=1&movingAverageSignal=1&movingAverageType=1&multipleTimingPeriods=false&periodWeighting=2&windowSize=3&windowSizeInDays=105&movingAverageType2=1&windowSize2=10&windowSizeInDays2=105&excludePreviousMonth=false&normalizeReturns=false&volatilityWindowSize=3&volatilityWindowSizeInDays=0&assetsToHold=4&allocationWeights=4&riskControlType=0&riskWindowSize=10&riskWindowSizeInDays=0&rebalancePeriod=1&separateSignalAsset=false&tradeExecution=1&comparedAllocation=-1&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=SPY&timingPeriods%5B0%5D=5&timingUnits%5B0%5D=2&timingWeights%5B0%5D=100&timingUnits%5B1%5D=2&timingWeights%5B1%5D=0&timingUnits%5B2%5D=2&timingWeights%5B2%5D=0&timingUnits%5B3%5D=2&timingWeights%5B3%5D=0&timingUnits%5B4%5D=2&timingWeights%5B4%5D=0&volatilityPeriodUnit=1&volatilityPeriodWeight=0
Here is an Adaptive Allocation Risk Parity buying the top 4 monthly based on the % shown, currently March 1st allocations
15.13% ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD)
29.81% Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
45.13% iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
9.94% ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)
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ron22
255 posts
msg #156178
- Ignore ron22
modified |
3/17/2021 11:00:12 PM
@
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ron22
255 posts
msg #156179
- Ignore ron22 |
3/17/2021 11:14:42 PM
@davesaint86, I really appreciate your efforts in back testing these different models. I cannot seem to get the links to work. Can I assume that the top 4 monthly Adaptive Allocation is the best one? If so, please post the average annual returns and the largest drawdown for this allocation. Thanks again.
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