mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #116097
- Ignore mahkoh |
10/20/2013 10:43:21 AM
FREE had a 10 for 1 reverse stock split in February 2013.
Prior to the week beginning April 1 FREE did not reach the 2 % limit 8 times out of 52 weeks. The average loss during those 8 weeks was 22.42%. Out of those 8 failures it closed profitable within 3 weeks only 3 times.
I think I would have skipped FREE as a candidate.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #116098
- Ignore johnpaulca
modified |
10/20/2013 12:02:43 PM
I ran FREE through my system, this had high risk written all over it but then so are penny stocks. Buy point was triggered at about $0.35 and this was last month
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compound_gains
222 posts
msg #116099
- Ignore compound_gains |
10/20/2013 12:31:48 PM
Rule #1: Admit when you're stupid. FREE was not top-of-list for w/o 01 April.
Rule #2: Make sure you've had your morning coffee before you post so you don't show everyone you're stupid.
It's really hard to back test and replicate a real world experience so who can say what's achievable or not? Gain or loss also depends on how you factor in commissions. For example, SNSS was the top listing w/o 11 February and peaked at +2.11%, so getting in at the opening price or lower technically gets you your 2% gain. But what if your entry was actually higher than the open because of the bid/ask spread?
I also built commissions into my back testing and 2% gain test so based on the opening price plus commissions, SNSS would likely not have made a 2% gain that week or since. It opened @ $6.16 then and closed Friday @ $4.75. Again, maybe you got in below the open or you pay less than the $13.90 round trip commission I used. The size of your investment would also make a difference in your total cost, and no one can buy exactly the number of shares that match your equity...you always leave something unspent on the table.
My back testing showed a high risk of loss using small percentage gains, which does not reconcile with the success that some have reported. What is particularly problematic for me is trying to understand the huge difference in results. But then again, I'm playing with what ifs.That being said, I wouldn't be rolling the dice with a $20,000 investment until my comfort level was a lot higher.
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #116102
- Ignore mahkoh |
10/20/2013 2:49:07 PM
SNSS had 5 failures in the 52 weeks before the week of 2-11 with an average loss during those weeks of 6.62 %. Out of the five times it recovered with a profit in 3 weeks 4 times. I would have played SNSS.
I think you're supposed to set the limit at the open + 2 %, not your entry + 2 %. If you want to incorporate commissions you should check statistics for maybe a 2.5 % gain from open: 6 failures, average loss 7.89 %, 4 recoveries in 3 weeks.
SNSS closed 3 weeks later at 5.95 and reached a high during that week of 6.05.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #116108
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/20/2013 4:37:24 PM
SNSS($4.75)...buyers are in this area down to about $4.53, you wanna see buyers buying at about $4.70
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tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #116371
- Ignore tennisplayer2
modified |
10/31/2013 7:26:10 AM
Frank, I started manually testing your system. I was going to use 2012 as a starting point. Before I go any further on 11/16/2012 ( Friday), TZA (it does not have a earning date) was one of stocks in the top 5. Monday's open was 70.28. If you were looking at a 2% gain, that would make your exit at 71.68 (70.28 *1.02). TZA has never hit 71.68 since. What did you do in this case to prevent a HUGH LOSS, since you said you didn't use a stop loss? Was there a split? Thanks.
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jemarcks
26 posts
msg #125838
- Ignore jemarcks |
10/26/2015 7:14:56 PM
While reading the user guide I noticed an issue with this filter and its use of the count command.
This filter uses weekly data BUT the count command only uses DAILY data.
count(Long_Profit > .04 , 52)
This would be looking at the last 52 days and NOT THE LAST 52 WEEKS!
Is there a way to make count use weekly data? Can this be done another way?
Thanks!
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #125932
- Ignore mahkoh |
10/28/2015 5:40:59 PM
I'm not sure but I believe the filter does look back 52 weeks. Running the filter on page 1 and clicking on the 50-99 column you get the stocks that are supposed to have made a number of over 50 % gains during either the 52 day or 52 week timeframe. Looking at the charts I would say 52 weeks.
Perhaps SF staff can give a conclusive answer.
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graftonian
1,089 posts
msg #125953
- Ignore graftonian
modified |
10/29/2015 1:22:33 PM
I too, would like an explanation. The filter works, and jemarcks does have a point,
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jemarcks
26 posts
msg #126069
- Ignore jemarcks |
11/5/2015 9:02:39 AM
stockfetcher, can you confirm the documentation for the count command is correct?
Does it only use daily data?
Thanks.
jeff
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