Lapre506
48 posts
msg #138639
- Ignore Lapre506 |
10/9/2017 6:31:57 PM
I can't speak for Snappy, but he and I have discussed how to handle stop losses. I believe he uses a 10%. But this is how I am handling that issue. I tweaked TRO's filter to only show stocks in an uptrend (basically just added code for trading above SMA (200). So if I get stuck in a losing position eventually that stock will get back to the price I bought it. Sunday night when I sit down and check the filter and put the results into my spreadsheet I identify the top 10-15 candidates. Add them to watchlist Monday morning and I monitor the premarket activity. If a stock is down in premarket I won't buy it at open. I only buy the ones that are slightly up or no activity. This results in 2 positions bought at open. Most times both these positions spike up and hit their 1%-2% by 9:45 and I am out of both. Then the rest of the day I monitor the other stocks in the watchlist. Around 2:30 I put buy orders in on 4 of them that opened and went straight down, or opened and spiked up less then the 1% and then went down. These positions I hold through the week and sell when they eventually come back to 1% gain. I don't use a stop loss on these because I am already getting them cheaper then the opening price on Monday, they are uptrending stocks, and the mathematical probability on them hitting their 1% is 95% plus.
I realize this is not the way the system was designed and intended but it allows me to stack the probabilities in my favor and minimize risk. Eventually I will get slammed by a big loss and then I will have to decide whether to eat it or hold over the weekend for the next week. If the loss has a catalyst like bad news I'll probably just cut my losses on Friday. But if it's just a normal ebb and flow of the market, being an uptrending stock I'll just hold it til the next week. The downside being a quarter of my capital will be on pause.
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snappyfrog
731 posts
msg #138706
- Ignore snappyfrog |
10/14/2017 1:36:11 PM
Mike,
I use a mental stop loss. I got stopped out too many times using a physical one. I change my mental stop loss if I hear news - good or bad - or volume is weak - less likely to get a good swing.
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snappyfrog
731 posts
msg #138707
- Ignore snappyfrog |
10/14/2017 1:40:45 PM
Lapre506,
I use this filter as designed on the 5 picks. However, like you, I have found that watching another 20-40 stocks on Monday - culling those that go over 1% - and picking those that make a turn back up on Monday, Tuesday and even Wed, I have greatly increased my profit.
I have used this filter as designed for 2 years now and the picks hit 1%-5% consistently 85% of the time. Some weeks a few look scarey and I bail, but they almost always come back up by Friday.
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snappyfrog
731 posts
msg #138708
- Ignore snappyfrog |
10/14/2017 1:44:04 PM
I left a lot of money on the table this week as most weeks, but that is why I have other accounts to invest also. In this account I buy as the filter is designed to show others that it does work week after week. IMO
Week 41 Results: October 07, 2017
The S&P 500 was UP this week +0.15% and YTD UP +13.40%. My picks were UP this week +23.67% and YTD UP +192.49% compounded (earnings re-invested).
I am 5/5 for 100% on this weeks picks and YTD my picks are 159/185 or 85.9% based on my goals of 1-5%.
Stock - Open - High - Percentage
HMNY - $16.10 - $32.90 - +104.35%
EDIT - $25.13 - $25.93 - +3.18%
IMGN - $6.80 - $7.19 - +5.74%
MRNS - $7.01 - $7.09 - +1.14%
EMES - $8.32 - $8.65 - +3.97%
All numbers are MAX profits that could have been made this week / year. None of us are good enough to hit top price any week.
MY RESULTS -
Personally, in this group I had 4 winners and 1 loser. This week I made 7.73% (HMNY +27.02, EDIT +1.91, IMGN +1.18, MRNS -1.85 and EMES +1.44).
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shillllihs
6,046 posts
msg #138709
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/14/2017 2:56:18 PM
Nice job. But you can never convince me to trade this swill. Why risk trading a stock when an etf will almost never go belly up? How do you close out losing trades? Just for your information, ETFs are superior.
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Lapre506
48 posts
msg #138713
- Ignore Lapre506 |
10/14/2017 8:22:05 PM
This filter can easily be applied to ETF's instead of stocks. Just edit the code to market is ETF.
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WantingLittle
11 posts
msg #140064
- Ignore WantingLittle |
12/13/2017 1:54:39 PM
Snappy, if you're still reading this thread, I saw where you use mental stop losses based on news, etc. (no longer using the 10% stop you previously mentioned), but what is your exit strategy for profit?
You said you spend about 15 mins. a week watching your phone related to these picks so do you just have alerts set or some other way of tracking the movers? How do you decide when to get out as it appears you are making different returns on each stock?
Thanks!
Daniel
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #140068
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/13/2017 3:36:23 PM
STOP LOSS is a function of RISK and POSITION SIZE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQQTXx6yYFc
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WantingLittle
11 posts
msg #140071
- Ignore WantingLittle |
12/13/2017 3:57:59 PM
Thanks, Avery. I'm curious about the profits though--Snappy seemed to have different exit strategies for clearing profits as opposed to setting a limit.
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