| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey | << 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up |
| shillllihs 6,047 posts msg #138194 - Ignore shillllihs |
9/15/2017 4:31:21 PM The earth can flood and the Antichrist can pay a visit and Xiv would still go to 96. |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #138202 - Ignore sandjco |
9/16/2017 3:02:21 PM Hahahaha! Shils...u dawg; u are certainly a character! Now, IF only I could understand half of what you are trying to say when it comes to trading or sharing your trading thoughts...it will make me a better trader as you certainly aren't the "herd"! I am learning lots...but I still seem to "over think" my entries and exits. Maybe it is supposed to be this way. Sitting on XIV has been an interesting experience. I still have a long ways to go to figure what what filter is the most efficient to weed candidates out. And, of course, thank you to all those who have provided me tips and tricks along the way. I am grateful. I see XIV coming off a symmetrical triangle with $71.21 as the low, $86.40 as the high...with a $15 diff...add that to $86...gives me a $91 target |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #138203 - Ignore pthomas215 |
9/16/2017 5:16:25 PM sandjco, one way to estimate resistance is to take a 3 month view or 6 months. you can see with XIV it tests 95-96 and comes down. it re tests it again, hits 96 and comes down. This is one indicator that if we continue in a bull, which is probable, XIV will run to 95-96 and test it once again. Then if it runs to 98....get back in, as it has broken resistance. |
| shillllihs 6,047 posts msg #138204 - Ignore shillllihs modified |
9/16/2017 10:39:01 PM Sandy, there is somethings I like to keep to myself but I will share something that I believe is a good start. Identify the long term trend, meaning years. Look at the symbol SH which is the inverse of SPY, When the monthly SMA(2) closed over SMA(21) in Jan 08, that meant the onset of a bear market to me. When monthly ma(2) closed below ma(21) in May 09, that marked the beginning of the bull and it's been on since then. There's so much more to it than that since you will get some pretty big dips even in a bull trend. That's on you to work on to catch those dips or temporarily bail, which could last up to 18 months. Also, bear markets are tough to trade too, sure you can short Tmv or Xiv for many months and live under duress doing so, while riding out all the spikes, that will be my biggest challenge. Bottom line catch the trend early and it should make you wealthier. Second bottom line ride this trend with a caveat, you also have to find those mystery indicators that get you out way before the bear hits as you will lose much of your gains. To me there are 3 phases, The bull, The bear and a mystery phase that's sort of grey during the bull which is when to get out. |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #138207 - Ignore sandjco modified |
9/17/2017 12:36:00 PM Thanks Pt and Shils! I certainly do understand and expect that there are some things that one may not want to share. No one should really begrudge that. I, for one, am respectful and grateful of what is being shared. I can attest that I have learned more in the short time I've been in SF than any other sites. The kindness that have been extended to me and to others that are also learning have been amazing. I would prefer to learn how to fish rather than being given a fish. I know I will be a better fisher of stocks in due time. In the meantime, I have a few challenges: 1. Knowing and being able to figure out what is true and what is not (this takes time as I have to read thru the forums in SF and then figure out who's who and then figure out the filters shared to see what works and what doesn't). I know who the prolific posters are....but who am I missing? 2. Simplify simplify simplify. This applies in creating filters, entries, exits, "reading" what the market is giving me, decision making, and the outcome of those decisions. From what I gathered from both of your feedback: 1. it is good to step back and look at the view of the forest from different levels (3, 6, or...months) to see a different perspective when it comes to support and resistance. Looking at the granular level (which I am right now) may result in missing the bigger picture. My challenge is to align the "big" picture with my goal (which is to make incremental profits and compound it over a trend instead of "riding" a trend). I have not found a compromise on this. 2. Trade with caution. We are in a bull market. How does one create a sufficient "warning" indicator in order to avoid the big hits? Shils suggested looking at SH. So far, I have been able to avoid this by not "sitting" on any of my positions in my trading account. This is the longest I've held XIV in my trading account. And hence, I am feeling like I'm playing in a musical chair right now given it is Sept and Oct is coming up. My brain is thinking I should be exiting very soon. Greed says....let it ride! ;=P The closest "exit" indicator I've found using filters for the LT is this script (my apologies...I cannot remember who wrote this or which board it came from)... symlist(spy,agg) add column roc(63,1) {month performance} sort on column 5 descending If bonds outperform...time to move out. Not sure if it has been backtested. |
| shillllihs 6,047 posts msg #138215 - Ignore shillllihs modified |
9/17/2017 6:33:57 PM Just to try to clarify what I mean by a third phase, there seems to be a trending phase in a bull market, which we are in right now, and a secondary phase which is more of a whipsaw phase but not necessarily done with the bull or maybe it is. For example, from around 11-2011, Xiv was trending until about July 2014, at which point it started its down ups and downs. I have a system that identifies when this phase will occur with Xiv. So we are not technically in a bear market but we do have these giant whipsaws to the point where shorting Tmv would have been your best play. Bottom line, look at long range indicators to set a foundation for your trades. In fact, if you did nothing but stay long in Xiv or Tna for several years and added on the dips, you would have made a killing. I know it's hard to do but overtrading is a curse. But I'm trying to stay in my swing trades longer. |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #138225 - Ignore sandjco |
9/18/2017 9:17:33 AM Thanks Shils! I read somewhere..."Bulls make money, Bears make money...Pigs get slaughtered!" My goal is to be mindful of what is going on from the bigger picture perspective BUT trade based on the plan as I'm certain the market will almost always provide us the opportunity. In the meantime, I want to simplify and be able to see the entries/exits as the present themselves and get rid of the gerbil in my head that constantly second guesses my actions! ;=D |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #138227 - Ignore pthomas215 |
9/18/2017 10:32:25 AM sanjco, ha. I think it is 'pigs get fat. hogs get slaughtered.' in general, the Shills is correct on longer swing trades. at the start of the bull in 2009, if you just expected a bull and entered XIV and never exited, you would have higher returns than anything else. The context of my thinking now is we are hitting true resistance at 2520....buying TVIX at SPX 2520.... |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #138233 - Ignore sandjco |
9/18/2017 12:12:09 PM @pt...hahaha...yep...them hogs are getting bigger! BTW..newbie question....what do you mean by the "true resistance" of 2250? SPY is now at 2506...so my brain ain't computing! Thanks |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #138243 - Ignore sandjco |
9/18/2017 2:39:05 PM Anyone thinking or playing USLV or UGLD? |
| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey | << 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up |
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