taylorsk
106 posts
msg #90050
- Ignore taylorsk |
3/21/2010 1:14:32 PM
Hey Miketranz,
I pulled my data in exel and it appears at least that the % profitable trades is actually better with a bid above the close.
Of all trades triggerd since jan 1.
Stocks that opened at or above the close there were 82 trades with 15 losers
Stocks that opened below the close there were 100 trades with 37 losers.
I think you indicated a bid 10 cents above the high, but I have not been collecting the high of the day, only the close, so so far I have used that as the guide.
More study required, but initial study suggests it is actually more profitable enter above the prior day close and most likely above the prior day high
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duke56468
683 posts
msg #90053
- Ignore duke56468 |
3/21/2010 3:45:58 PM
miketranz
- Ignore miketranz 3/19/2010 8:42:16 PM
If your entry is based on the previous days price,enter .10 above the previous days high,place a stop loss .10 under the previous days high.That way you'll be buying in the "right direction".If the stock falls back below your entry,and you get stopped out,the stocks heading in the "wrong direction".Most people loss money staying in stocks that are not "moving in their favor".On exits,you take what the market gives.The easiest thing to do is enter a trade.The hardest thing to do is exit it.Very simple methods that will keep you from getting into trouble....
Mike do you use .10 whether it is a $10 stock or a $200 stock?
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raviram80
30 posts
msg #90054
- Ignore raviram80 |
3/21/2010 4:09:01 PM
Hi Kevin,
When you say Bollinger band (10,2) is it the Bollinger band EMA or Bollinger band SMA
To confirm 10 is the number of days and +/- 2 is the SDeviation for upperl and lower band
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taylorsk
106 posts
msg #90055
- Ignore taylorsk |
3/21/2010 4:15:39 PM
Hey Duke,
I took Mike to mean 10 cents, but extrapolating the idea I would think you would want to scale it to the price of the stock. I personally trade stocks only in a price range of 5 - 40, so I will probably look at 10 cents except for stocks under $10. I may use 5 cents, but before I do, I need further study and practice trading.
Mike perhaps you have a different opinion.
And as I believe Kevin said, my biggest mistake with stops is ignoring them.
As for exits I am a big believer in selecting an EMA of a timeframe you are comfortable with and exiting when that ema turns down.
for a short term trader that might be a 5ema on intraday charts, a swing trader may alsu use a 5 ema or some other exit trigger.
I will usually exit a part of a position at one level usually 2% and then the other portion when the 5ema turns down.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #90056
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/21/2010 5:33:50 PM
When you say Bollinger band (10,2) is it the Bollinger band EMA or Bollinger band SMA
To confirm 10 is the number of days and +/- 2 is the SDeviation for upperl and lower band
++++++++++++++++
Bollinger Bands are usually constucted from SMAs. And if you are planning to use this approach, I would only use it for multi-day trades. Keep your stop losses aligned with your anticipated trading time fames.
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miketranz
962 posts
msg #90057
- Ignore miketranz |
3/21/2010 5:45:49 PM
Duke,as the price goes up,like as in $50-100 stocks,I would enter .20-.25 above the previous days high.If a stock can break over the previous days high,you know there's some kind of buying power.I'm not talking about all stocks in general,only momentum stocks showing above average volume,and in most cases,I would be entering right on the close.I only use the "above previous days high" entry when market conditions are volatile,or when trading high risk stocks such as biotech or certain otc stocks where I feel I could get caught up in a gap down.That way if the trade does not trigger,I'm not going to get stuck in dead money....
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taylorsk
106 posts
msg #90239
- Ignore taylorsk |
3/24/2010 11:23:38 AM
miketranz,
Thanks.
this 10 cent above entry has changed my approach.
It has not changed my filters, but it has changed my approach and improved my success already.
Entered CQB and DOW this morning as they appeared on my filter from yesterday. Have now been in and out with successfull trades this morning already.
To anyone reading this, I did not enter into trading this style on a hope and a prayer. I pulled all my data for the last 6 months, then pulled 5 minute charts for all picks and calulated the win/loss. saw the sucess rate and then and only then did I decide to implement. This took about 20 hours of work.
Even then when I decided to try with real money I am only trading at this early stage with about 20% of what I would call a full position.
I think I will search for all your post miketranz and see what other nuggest you have left for us dedicated traders!
Thanks, again,
My trading for today is done!
taylorsk
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miketranz
962 posts
msg #90255
- Ignore miketranz |
3/24/2010 2:13:46 PM
Taylorsk,that's right way to trade.Get in,take your profits,shut off the screen.Come back tomorrow,if conditions are right,do the same thing again.Only take the trades that work for you and have know high percentage success rates.Glad my entry method works for you.All the best,Mike..........
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taylorsk
106 posts
msg #90413
- Ignore taylorsk |
3/26/2010 12:12:03 PM
A few more trades and a couple of observations.
Mike is this inline with your experience? I am just going off early observations.
1 - If the entry price is not hit in the first hour..turn off the screen...go to the golf coarse
2 - if the stock gaps open above your entry, be carefull getting filled on the way down. wait to see if the stock finds support at the close and look for an upward move from within the "close to entry" zone
3 - carefull of stocks that open below the stop and then race through the zone.
4 - setting a time stop seems to be not a bad idea 3 or 4 hours max....most movers of this trype, seem to move early then dawddle along. some make more money, but most go sideways or down.
Thoughts? still formulating the gameplan andI am sure the more stocks I lok at the more predictabilities and probabilities will become evident.
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miketranz
962 posts
msg #90430
- Ignore miketranz |
3/26/2010 3:05:47 PM
Taylorsk,very good observations.What exactly are you looking to do? Scalp off the open day trade,swing trade a day or two,or hold longer term? Mike.........
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