StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · I FINALLY FIGURED IT OUT...<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 6 >>Post Follow-up
6,364 posts
msg #35443
Ignore TheRumpledOne
3/24/2005 9:22:14 AM

Now I know why people are constantly looking for new filters...


They want a filter that spits out stocks and so then they can just buy the stocks and make money. They want the stocks to rocket up and then walk away with a huge pile of cash. This filter should never ever fail to produce nothing but winners. They should not have to be concerned with nothing but selling for a huge profit. No waiting for green. No watching the price/volume action.

I am still using the same old filter guts from when I first was told of StockFetcher about 2 years ago... RSI(2) < 1.

That's all I need. Everyday I get a list of stocks to chose from that we pay off IF I TRADE THEM PROPERLY.

It is the TRADING of the stock that makes money NOT the selection.

I have another filter that spits out volatile stocks... these stocks go up and down and up and down all day long. All I have to do is pick any ONE of them and trade. If I time my entries/exits correctly, I profit. If I don't, I lose.
It is that simple. Everyday, there is an opportunity to make or lose money on these stocks.


1,373 posts
msg #35446
Ignore EWZuber
3/24/2005 12:17:57 PM

I disagree. The stock you trade has a great deal to do with success in the markets. You can try to skim a few percent out of a bounce in a stock who's company has been losing money for years, is running out of capitol and has been in a cronic downtrend for years or you can buy stock in a company that is long and short term oversold and has just started to make money, has a new and innovative product, has just hired personell to fascilitate a corporate expansion, and has just guided estimates higher for the next quarter and the full FY.
It is what you trade AND how you trade it.

299 posts
msg #35452
Ignore wallman
3/24/2005 9:01:59 PM

Zub,i gotta way disagree with you here,take a company like SYBR that basically stinks on fundamentals etc.,it was in a 8 mo downtrend from March of last year till Nov when it broke out,then went on another slide from Dec to March 3rd,do i care, nope , BECAUSE I COMPOUND and jump them when they get momo,i took 6% from this stock in 12 minutes today,sold and could care less about anything else about this stock except that it's on my radar again Monday if goes green and i'll do it all over again,i can and do take $10k and run it to $30k in a few months like this over and over,you can believe it or not but i know it's true

39 posts
msg #35453
Ignore acervapsych
3/24/2005 10:04:49 PM

I am not a pro at this yet. Been trading to years since Rumple one introduced me to RSI(2). Still using a simple filter and every day I pick my picks based on a low RSI(2) and touching lower linear regression. I wait for green and I make money if I use proper money management. I agree with Wallman and Rumpleone. I really donít care what the company does or where it goes. Still using the same all filter that rumple one gave meÖ

1,373 posts
msg #35456
Ignore EWZuber
3/24/2005 10:53:45 PM

I believe you misunderstood my point. With adequate skil and discipline all sorts of bad odds can be overcome. I did not imply at all that a trader could not do very well daytrading or trading volatile stocks, but it does make a difference what you trade. Otherwise you wouldn't have made a choice at all you would have just picked any old stock and tried to figure out a trading strategy. You picked SYBR for a reason. Something made a it appear more promising and SYBR doesn't come anywhere close to the discription of a failing company that I gave.

SYBR fundamentals show promise. Revenues have increased from $20.7 Mill in FY2000 to $52 Mill. in 2004 a 150% increase.
Losses have gone from (-$7.8 Mill. ) in 2000 to (-1.8 Mill. ) in 2004 a 333% improvement. The losses have improved in fairly sequencal manner;
2000(-7.8) 2001(-4.3) 2002(-2.5) 2003(-1.4) 2004(-1.8)
Investors like sequential improvements.
Plus the company has recently reduced their debt substantially.
( Jan 12, 2005; Synergy Brands Expects 2004 Revenue to Grow by 37% to $56 Million )
( Dec. 16, 2004; Referrals from Google searches in the past month represent the majority of page views that have been directed to the company's online cigar sites. In particular, increased its page views by over 250% to 250,000 page views in the past 30 days with sales increasing by 300%. )

This is what speculators want to see. Earnings improving faster than revenues and lots of good news indicating that managements actions are paying off. It indicates that management is playing with a full deck. Often times you will see increasing revenues but losses increasing even faster than revenues. It looks like SYBR could be making money before long and could very well become one of those stocks that I was refering to that makes a steady climb.
The downtrend you mentioned was just a consolidation pattern after an explosive price and volume spike. It was a low volume stock before the spike. There were days it didn't trade at all, not even 100 shares, then it was hit with a day of 3.3 Mill. shares traded and a 42% gain. The consolidation pattern was to be expected, it's not an indication of weakness.

William Oneal has a system that looks for stocks that have the parameters that I mentioned in the last post and there is no system available to investors that has a better return. That is a documented fact. His system has won every major trading contest. There is no need to constantly dart in and out of a stock winning some losing others. When you are in a winner one can sometimes hang on for years.
These stocks can yield returns into the thousands of percent.

910 posts
msg #35501
Ignore marine2
3/31/2005 8:15:56 PM

I use the IBD 100 listing and established them in one of my watch lists. I then have 4 of my top filters analyzing each IBD 100 companies for the "buy" flag.

So yes, William O'Neil's stock picking method is a wonderful tool to use with my favorite filters. Companies with great fundamentals being watched for any "pause that refreshes" moment. All good companies pauses for a few days to gain more momentum for further leg up. Watching positive companies that are rich in value sure makes sense. Jumping them when the time is right does makes you sleep sounder.

RSI(2) <1 method is a nice day trading tool which many probably use. We all have our favorites and if they work well heck stick with them.

Happy Investing!


6,364 posts
msg #35504
Ignore TheRumpledOne
3/31/2005 9:23:38 PM

EWZuber... "It is what you trade AND how you trade it."

I disagree... plenty of people lose money on good stocks.

Others make money regardless of the stock.

I will agree that trading a good stock has advantages over a poor stock but...

If one can make money on a stock, by going long at the appropriate time, that lost value on that day that just proves...

It is NOT what you trade, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

1,373 posts
msg #35505
Ignore EWZuber
4/1/2005 4:11:36 AM

EWZuber... "It is what you trade AND how you trade it."

TheRumpledOne, "I disagree... plenty of people lose money on good stocks."

Losing money on a good stock does not negate my statement as half of the statement is refering to timing.
However as you said later, "I will agree that trading a good stock has advantages over a poor stock but..."
Thats my point.
By saying, "It is NOT what you trade, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!" Ignores the realities of trading. Assuming one is looking for success, you want the best odds you can find with the best gains. Even with as many odds stacked in your favor as possible there will be bad trades and losses. So only if ones trading is flawless, which no ones is, could one ignore the odds and actually forgo picking a stock. Its not practical.
I just don't want people reading this to think that chosing the right stock to trade is irrelevant. It is relevant if you wish to succeed and I encourage people to look for stocks with a reason for people to buy them. For instance, a company with rising fundamental value is going to attract more buyers and make your job a whole lot easier. A stock will have a tendency to rise steadier and have shallower and shorter distribution phases.
One thing I have noticed about moves higher caused strictly by oversold bounces is that the Hourly Chart short term supporting trendline is often violated after the first run up. The chart is more choppy and timing must be very good.
If there is fundamental strength behind the move in addition to a technical oversold bounce then there are more reasons to be buying and there is a more diverse crowd buying and this supports the price better.
Thats all I'm saying.
I will concede though, that junkbomb stocks can realize more volatility at certain times than profitable stocks and if your timing is very good these can also be big winners.

6,364 posts
msg #35513
Ignore TheRumpledOne
4/2/2005 1:06:32 PM


I will use an analogy... auto racing.

What's more important the car (stock) or the driver (how you trade)?

910 posts
msg #35515
Ignore marine2
4/2/2005 2:42:17 PM

Trading styles are predominantly of three different natures: day trading, swing trading, and long term trading. My style is, swing trader (between 4 to 12 days mostly). I think RumpledOnes trading style is of day trading mostly. In and out fast. Which does create vastly different trading techniques as far as watching technically and / or fundamentally.

Since TheRumpledOne is trying to promote not only his one particular filter (hard and fast) as well as his web site he is more the salesmen than the technition.

We the forum participants do appreciate his purpose, and that being, showing us his way of prospering in this constantly moving stock market. I too, when I get the chance, to show people my view on filter making and trading in general. People like us, are needed and looked at in this wonderful web site. We should all, ones that communicates in these 3 areas of StockFetcher should be proud of our work here.

Happy investing, and lets make some money!


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