Mactheriverrat
3,156 posts
msg #149852
- Ignore Mactheriverrat |
12/10/2019 7:04:38 PM
Anyone hear from FOUR?
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #149987
- Ignore karennma |
12/23/2019 11:31:15 AM
"Four" prolly figured out what I did back in the summer ...
Trading is way too much work in a "buy and hold" market.
"A secular bull market is characterized by above average stock market returns for a long time, typically 10 to 20 years."
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Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150007
- Ignore Cheese |
12/24/2019 11:51:18 AM
karen, this is just a note to myself more than anything else.
Mebane Faber approach may help us mitigate the drawdown risks with buy and hold.
I'm sure you've already known this since you participated in past discussions.
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #150088
- Ignore karennma |
1/3/2020 11:18:40 AM
Mebane Faber
Never heard of him.
I'm disgusted.
My life is ruined.
A year of lost profits.
I looked at my old spreadsheet .. what my Buy & Hold porfolio made.
(the one I sold Oct 2018)
Six figures! NO trading required.
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Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150093
- Ignore Cheese |
1/3/2020 12:21:38 PM
SUMMARY mebane faber
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/11/29/moving-averages-november-month-end-update
mebane faber
https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/General-Discussion/2008-redux-and-your-version-of-Market-Timing/134310/-1/134389
FWIW
If I remember correctly, Kevin_in_GA at one time preferred a faster Mebane Faber approach with monthly ma(2) and ma(3) instead of monthly ma(10) and ma(12)
Best wishes with your trading in the new year 2020
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150095
- Ignore Village Elder |
1/3/2020 12:34:08 PM
I think that Kevin_in_GA was looking more at just a ROC timing strategy without using MAs:
2/17/2017 3:11:00 PM
Just allocate based on the performance over the last three months - you will never catch the tops and bottoms so don't try. Focus instead on catching the meat of the move.
Even easier is to simplify your choices down to either stocks (SPY) or bonds (AGG) - be wholly invested in whichever has the higher ROC(63,1)
Submit
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xarlor
581 posts
msg #150099
- Ignore xarlor |
1/3/2020 4:36:28 PM
Visual representation of when to switch to AGG and back to SPY based on which ROC is higher.
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shillllihs
6,045 posts
msg #150101
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/3/2020 11:16:04 PM
Where is the value in this filter, it enters and exits near the same level. Unless you scale out of your position.
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