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Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
xarlor
msg #150857
2/22/2020 12:10:03 PM

My ROKU C will be held till expiry or will close worthless. Chalk it up to impatience and trading on earnings


sandjco, don't take a max loss! One of the biggest advantage of using options is how many options (pun definitely intended) we have to mitigate losers. Will your ROKU call become profitable? Doubtful; 7.49% chance it ends up ITM. But you can reduce the loss you take. Below are some ideas to consider. I have put in bold how much your max loss can be reduced to in each case. Please be aware that some strategies INCREASE your max risk. I have noted those that do.

Prices are of course during market close, so they won't exactly reflect what you can get come Monday.

Disclaimer: Options can involve greater risk than is generally associated with stocks. Options can result in significant capital losses and may have a detrimental effect on the value of your portfolio. If you don't understand options, you WILL LOSE A SHIT TON OF MONEY. My advice is not a recommendation to purchase or sell any given security. If you don't get it, you will lose money. Don't do it.

Stay bullish:


Turn it into a Call Debit Spread.
SELL -1 ROKU 100 17 APR 20 165 CALL @1.41 LMT
You guarantee a max possible outcome of -$244, but your max loss is reduced to -$744 instead of the -$885 you paid.

Create a butterfly.
SELL -2 ROKU 100 17 APR 20 155 CALL @2.26 LMT
BUY +1 ROKU 100 17 APR 20 150 CALL @2.90 LMT
Max possible outcome: -$215. Max loss: -$715

Sell earlier dated calls for a rolling Call Calendar.
Choose the $160 strike of any earlier date and sell it. For example, sell the 06MAR2020 for -$15. When it expires worthless, do the same for 20MAR2020 and keep doing it till the week before your expiration. Alternatively, just sell the week before right now for -$116 and let it ride to expiration. Once expired, do the Call Debit Spread above. Max loss here is variable as it's a tiered approach. However, this leaves you open to the 7% chance of ROKU coming back to $160 before April, although Theta will have killed you by then.

Flip to bearish:


Create a Call Credit Spread (possible increased risk).
SELL -1 ROKU 100 17 APR 20 155 CALL @2.26 LMT
Increases your max loss to -$1159, but only if ROKU rises to $160 by expiration.
If it stays below $155, then your max loss is reduced to -$659

Go Neutral


In addition to the Call Credit Spread above, sell a Put Credit Spread to turn it all into an Iron Condor
SELL -1 VERTICAL ROKU 100 17 APR 20 85/80 PUT @.41 LMT
Reduce your loss by an extra -$41 by selling a Put credit spread. Max loss is -$1118, but as long as ROKU stays between $86 and $155, your max loss is reduced to -$618.




Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
xarlor
msg #150781
2/13/2020 5:40:10 PM

If you want the dip, just have to reverse the filter and tweak a bit. This looks promising, though you have to monitor if it bounces off the resistance (it does quite often). Still, you can buy the dip and sell at resistance for a tidy gain.

Fetcher[
close > 10
average volume(30) > 1234567
close > ma(200) for last 100 days

10-day slope of close 10 days ago > 0
close decreasing for last 5 days
]



Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
xarlor
msg #150777
2/13/2020 3:37:41 PM

Here is an approximation of your checkmark.

Fetcher[
close > 10
average volume(30) > 1234567

10-day slope of close 10 days ago < 0
close reached a new 30-day high

draw 10-day slope of close
do not draw var1
do not draw close 6-week high
]



Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
xarlor
msg #150746
modified
2/11/2020 10:23:07 AM

close-to-open gap is the command you are looking for. This filter checks for both a 9% (or worse) gap down and 9% gap up (or better) within the last 150 days. It does not check order though, so it could show a gap up first then a gap down or vice versa.

Fetcher[
chart-time 7 months
close > 100
set{Gapdown,count(close-to-open gap < -9,150)}
set{Gapup,count(close-to-open gap > 9,150)}
set{Gappers,gapdown * gapup}
Gappers > 0
]



Not sure what you mean by angle, but if you mean something like the angle of a trendline, then slope of might be of use. It doesnt use angles per se, but multipliers. For example a value of 1.0 means the value close to doubled from start to finish.

Fetcher[
chart-time is 150 days
close > 10
100 day slope of close > 1
]



Stock Picks and Trading · Picks and Pans Since Jan 2020
xarlor
msg #150740
2/10/2020 9:18:56 PM

I hear Google is hiring sandjco /snicker

Filter Exchange · New close above EMA(21)
xarlor
msg #150721
2/7/2020 11:24:45 PM

Fetcher[
close 1 day ago < ema(21) for last 45 days
close crossed above ema(21)
]



Filter Exchange · Help Needed with New close above EMA(21)
xarlor
msg #150720
2/7/2020 11:23:53 PM

Fetcher[
close 1 day ago < ema(21) for last 45 days
close crossed above ema(21)
]



Filter Exchange · Is there a way to identify how many days highest/lowest close today is?
xarlor
msg #150707
2/7/2020 1:00:40 AM

Fetcher[
chart-time 1 year

set{var1,days(high equals 52-week high,212)}
add column var1 {Days since 52-week high}

draw high 52-week high
sort column 5 descending
]



Filter Exchange · Swing Trading with Larry Connors
xarlor
msg #150703
2/6/2020 3:31:52 PM

2/4/2020 10:49:30 AM
Thanks! Any favorites? Have you noticed higher percentages with any particular filter?


@Samhill, the ones with higher percentages are the ones that occur the least often. Larry Connors books show this pattern repeatedly - the stricter the rules, the less times it hits, but they have a higher win%. Of those listed, VXX Short, Terror Gap, and Buying into Further Weakness intra-day are examples of low occurrence but high win%.

The RSI(2)s, Double 7s, and Powerzones have frequent occurrences, but their win% is less than the three above. According to Connors backtesting through 2017, the win% on these is still 70%+.

The intra-day trades on here are nigh impossible to catch using SF since by the time the filter shows with its 20-minute delay, they have already bounced back in real time. I recreated these with a thinkorswim scan and they work beautifully.



General Discussion · Can you view the charts after running your filter ?
xarlor
msg #150644
2/2/2020 10:21:37 PM

Clear your cache and data. That fixed it for me.

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