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Filter Exchange · rsi(9)
msg #88542
2/22/2010 9:40:15 PM

It's an excellent filter but I find the premise of the article, the use of RSI(9), a momentum oscillator, as a trend indicator, to be of questionable reliability. The article's author includes one chart to demonstrate that the use of RSI(9) as a trend indicator "works". My guess is that backtesting of the system would show many whipsawsand would not produce very good consistent returns. Based on his argument, one could use stochastic or any other oscillator as a trend indicator too. I could probably find many charts that would show that any oscillator can "work" as a trend indicator, at least for certain charts under certain conditions.

Not knocking this particular author but I think a lot of the articles that show up in trading magazines are written just to fill up space and aren't based on any better methods than many of the filters posted here.

General Discussion · Staircase screen
msg #88479
2/21/2010 7:04:00 AM

This one finds the stocks per your script.

Count(high reached new 21 day high, 60) > 20
close gained more than 10% over the last 60 days

This one eliminates the ones that have pulled back below MA(30)

Count(high reached new 21 day high, 60) > 20
close gained more than 10% over the last 60 days
Count(close < MA(30), 60) < 0.5

Filter Exchange · Micro-cap Weekly Volume Pop Screener
msg #88461
2/20/2010 5:24:57 PM

I've been running this or variations of it for a month or so, looking for micro-caps that are starting to break out of a solid base on higher volume. With many microcaps, I get a better sense of price-volume action by looking at weekly charts rather than daily.

Most hits from this aren't worth buying. But if you see an interesting chart, do some DD and you may find a good trade. I got a nice 25% trade on CRWG in Jan using this approach.

/* Micro-cap Weekly Volume Pop Screener*/
/* looking for stocks starting to break out of well formed bases on higher vol*/
/* look for tech, China, pharma, medical, maybe financials*/
/* Look for weekly bars with fewer top tails in base*/

set{ money, close * average volume(10)}
set{Voltrig, 2.5 * weekly average volume(20) two weeks ago}

money > 8000
money < 600000
close > 0.05

/*money reached new 120 day high within last 5 days*/

weekly volume > voltrig
weekly OBV reached new 60 day high within last 5 days

/*weekly volume one week ago > average weekly volume(20) two weeks ago*/

Count(close reached new 20 week high, 15) > 1

add column money
add column weekly volume {W vol}
add column weekly average volume(20) {w avg vol}
add column ind
draw weekly average volume(20)
draw weekly OBV
chart-display is weekly
chart-length is 8 months
sort by column 5 ascending

General Discussion · Rolling Stone's Take on the Wall Street/Banker scams of '08 and '09
msg #88441
2/20/2010 7:56:32 AM

Excellent article by Matt Taibbi on the various scams that the banks and the Federal Reserve used to loot the US Treasury and American taxpayer.

General Discussion · STOP !!!! .... We Need To Work as a TEAM !!!!
msg #88440
2/20/2010 7:52:25 AM

Karen, if you haven't seen this already, dshort has been tracking and comparing the stock market during the Great Depression and major recessions.

if you click on the figure, it enlarges for easier reading.

Filter Exchange · pp reached a new 4 week low
msg #88422
2/19/2010 3:42:25 PM

The version I was referring to with regard to the 4th line is:

pp reached a new 4 week low
close > pp
open < pp
pp near pp reached a new 4 week low

volume > 1000000
close > 1

The 1st line appears to be the key set-up line. I don't understand what the 4th line is looking for. In plain English, it seems to looking for stocks where the pp is near pp making a new 4 week low. But if the 1st line is true I don't understand why the 4th line is needed since the first line is already stocks where pp is making a new low.

I'm mainly focused on microcaps right now so I don't plan on trading this filter. But if I was a short term trader I might add "optionable" to this and also look for other indicators that could be added to increase the chances for short term success.

I also played with this version a little. Gives some interesting results:

weekly pp reached a new 4 week low
close > weekly pp
open < weekly pp

volume > 1000000
close > 1
chart-display is weekly
chart-length is 9 months

Filter Exchange · pp reached a new 4 week low
msg #88411
2/19/2010 11:15:36 AM

That's golden. Is the 4th line even needed?

Could flip it to look for shorts too.

Or take it to 6 months to look for more extreme conditions.

Nice one, four

General Discussion · Real Time Intraday Data
msg #88370
2/18/2010 11:22:20 AM has near real-time scanning capabilities if you have a real-time subscription to that site. The query language is much more restricted than SF. The data may be a few minutes delayed but it's close ti RT. You can find high volume breakouts, BB breakouts, new highs, and other queries with it.

General Discussion · Losing the Red Queen's Race
msg #88357
2/17/2010 9:14:26 PM

Losing the Red Queen's Race by Charles Hugh Smith

The Red Queen's Race ('s_race) is an apt analogy for the meltdown in assets and debt now swamping the global economy.

The Red Queen's race refers to running very fast to stay in the same place. As asset values fall globally (except where massive government stimulus has pushed the day of reckoning forward a bit), debt holders are frantically paying down or writing down debt--running very fast--but finding themselves in the same place--zero equity--despite their prodigious efforts.
I've prepared a chart to illustrate The Red Queen's Race in assets and debt:

Owning an asset as it catapults ever higher in a credit/asset bubble offers a fateful temptation to leverage that rising equity ("free money") or extract it to enjoy. Millions of speculators did so by borrowing against their stocks (margin accounts) and tens of millions did so by borrowing against their home equity via second mortgages or HELOCs (home equity lines of credit).

Alas, when the asset bubbles bursts, values quickly begin a long and painful retrace to pre-bubble valuations. In very short order, those who bought with high leverage or borrowed 90% of their equity find themselves underwater, owing more than the value of their asset/property.

Those with 80% of bubble-top value mortgages who cling to the hope of a rapid recovery in valuations soon find they too are underwater.

Lenders who thought they were "safe" extending 80%-of-value loans at the bubble top find their 1-2% reserves against losses are woefully inadequate as assets continue their ceaseless decline to rational valuations.

In a desperate attempt to stave off losing the Red Queen's Race, The Federal Reserve essentially hands the banks billions in easy profits, loaning them unlimited funds at near-zero interest rates so they can "re-capitalize" by loaning their unlimited "free money" at higher rates of interest.

But even the incantations and legerdemaine of the Fed are no match for the inexorable punishment of running in place just to avoid falling behind; no matter how fast the Fed-induced profits flow, they cannot gain on the declining assets. Banks pocket billions yet their net equity remains far below zero.

At some point, the lender or owner tires of writing down or paying down debt to no avail, and they lose the Red Queen's Race. Having lost, some lenders, owners and even governments (see Japan, Inc. for a woeful example) maintain the fiction that equity is above zero by continuing the fraud of pricing assets at "mark to fantasy" valuations.
In other words, they list a mortgage at full nominal value, as if the underlying asset--the house--was still worth more than the mortgage.

Here's the desperate game being played now on a global scale: mark the debt as if the bubble had never burst ("mark to fantasy") in the hopes that government stimulus and lending will re-inflate the bubble, enabling owners and lenders alike to exit the asset at a price which makes them whole (no losses incurred).

That is the entire raison d'etre for quantitative easing, near-zero interest rates and massive support of the mortgage markets, from China to the U.S. If only another generation of suckers can be conned into believing that bubble prices are "rational" and can even be exceeded (greed is not just good, it is necessary), then various financial Elites can exit their liquidity and debt traps by selling at the "new top."

Unfortunately for global financial Elites and homeowners alike, there has never been a bubble which was reinflated for long. Running faster (expanding credit in a futile attempt to spark another bubble frenzy) never wins the Red Queen's Race, but it certainly sets up a higher bubble and a catastrophic exhaustion of credit, debt and belief in the system (loss of institutional credibility).

Welcome to the Red Queen's Race, which can only be lost. Writing down debt as assets fall is simply staying in one place. At some point the runners--lenders and debtors alike--tire of maintaining the futile fiction that "equity" still exists, and the race is lost: losses are finally accepted, debt is renounced, and bankruptcy wipes out the fictional equity.

We might call this inevitable reconciliation with reality the Red Queen's Revenge.

Filter Exchange · Cyber Cycle Followed by IFT - Help
msg #88353
2/17/2010 8:38:09 PM


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