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Filter Exchange · "Acting right" filter
trendscanner
msg #87370
1/29/2010 6:19:32 AM

Mike, I've spent a lot of time pondering how to find these types of stocks and, especially, how to find these early so you can ride them up for a few months. MSPD is a good model for the type of chart I like to find. I got lucky last year and was able to find and ride a few of these upward for multi-baggers. It only takes a few of these a year to have great success in trading/investing. Probably going to be harder to find them this year after the Great Run-up of 2009.

A few variations to Chet's filters that you might find helpful:

Version 1. A few additional MA qualifiers

Fetcher[
SET{VAR1,DAYS(LOW BELOW MA(75),100)}

DRAW MA(25)
DRAW MA(50)
DRAW MA(75)

VAR1 BELOW -0.5
VOLUME ABOVE AVGVOL 500000

count(close < ma(50), 100) < 7
count(close < ma(25), 100) < 15

CHART-TIME 6 MONTH
]




Versions 2a, 2b, and 2c - Add some A-D or OBV Qualifiers. These get more to the root of what is propelling these stocks higher.

2a
Fetcher[
SET{VAR1,DAYS(LOW BELOW MA(75),100)}

DRAW MA(25)
DRAW MA(50)
DRAW MA(75)

VAR1 BELOW -0.5
VOLUME ABOVE AVGVOL 500000

120 day slope of OBV > 0

CHART-TIME 6 MONTH
]




2b
Fetcher[
SET{VAR1,DAYS(LOW BELOW MA(75),100)}

DRAW MA(25)
DRAW MA(50)
DRAW MA(75)

VAR1 BELOW -0.5
VOLUME ABOVE AVGVOL 500000

120 slope of accumulation distribution > 0

CHART-TIME 6 MONTH
]




Version 2c - Both A-D and OBV Qualifiers

Fetcher[
SET{VAR1,DAYS(LOW BELOW MA(75),100)}

DRAW MA(25)
DRAW MA(50)
DRAW MA(75)

VAR1 BELOW -0.5
VOLUME ABOVE AVGVOL 500000

120 day slope of OBV > 0
120 slope of accumulation distribution > 0

CHART-TIME 6 MONTH
]



A key to long term consistent upward movement is to find stocks that have persistent accumulation by shareholders that don't get shaken out at the first pullback and want to hold them for at least an intermediate term. Generally there needs to be an investment story that people find compelling. That's a topic for another day.



Filter Exchange · $volume
trendscanner
msg #78219
8/29/2009 10:57:09 AM

You might also want to use the MFI indicator since it does what you're interested in doing (multiplying price by volume).

The way it calculates MFI is (from Stockcharts.com):

Typical Price = ( (Day High + Day Low + Day Close) / 3)
Raw Money Flow = (Typical Price) x (Volume)
Positive Money Flow = Sum of Raw Money Flow for the specified number of periods where Typical Price increased
Negative Money Flow = Sum of Raw Money Flow for the specified number of periods where Typical Price decreased
Money Ratio = (Positive Money Flow / Negative Money Flow)

Finally, the MFI can be calculated directly from the Money Ratio:

Money Flow Index = 100 - (100 / (1 + Money Ratio))
The fewer number of days used to calculate the MFI, the more volatile it will be.

I run a screen with it a few times a week to look for up and coming, fast growing small caps.

Fetcher[
Show stocks where the MFI(15) has reached a new 6 month high
and close is between 0.50 and 20
and average volume(30) is between 30000 and 1000000
]



It occasionally turns up some companies I'm interested in.



General Discussion · 2 Period RSI for VIX?
trendscanner
msg #84055
12/8/2009 4:36:44 PM

that's awesome.

Filter Exchange · 2010 SP500 and NYSE stocks for longs and shorts
trendscanner
msg #85104
modified
12/29/2009 8:54:55 AM

Going into 2010, Iím expecting that it will be difficult for many companies to show improvement in their financial performance versus 1 year ago, as the poor 2008 performance results fade and 2009 numbers, which are generally much better than 2008, are used for comparison. As the so-called recovery proceeds, I expect it will be especially hard for many small and mid caps to put up good financial results since itís the large cap firms that have been able to use lobbyists to steer much of the stimulus money and new legislation towards their industries. I expect it will be difficult even for many large caps to do well in 2010.

I decided to try to put together a filter that would identify, for swing trades in 2010, large cap or NYSE companies that are doing well financially, have had a small pullback, and appear ready for a short leg back up. I donít plan to trade filter the long version of this is until the market shows some sort of pullback.

After preparing the long version, I decided to reverse the criteria and see what a short version would look like, i.e., a filter that would identify large caps/NYSE companies that are not profitable and have had a swing up and may be ready for a short decline. These would be short or put candidates.

Here are both the long and short versions. Comments or suggestions for improvement are welcome.

LONG VERSION
Fetcher[
* Stocks are either NYSE or SP500*/
Set{N_yes, Count(NYSE, 1)}
Set{SP_yes, Count(SP500, 1)}
Set{sum, N_yes + SP_yes}
sum > 0.5

/* Companies are profitable, optionable, volume is adequate */
pe ratio > 0
optionable
average volume(45) > 700000

/* Pullback criteria*/
Count(Money Flow Index(15) reached new 4 week low, 3) > 0.5
Count(Chande Momentum Oscillator(20,9) reached new 4 week low, 3) > 0.5

/* Swing criteria*/
close above ema(5)
close 1 day ago below ema(5) 1 day ago
close above open
Slow Stochastics Slow %D(10) < 30 within last 3 days
close above ema(100)

draw ma(50)
draw ema(100)
draw ma(200)
add column ind
add column eps
add column roe
add column pe ratio
add column exchange
]




SHORT VERSION
Fetcher[
/* Stocks are either NYSE or SP500*/
Set{N_yes, Count(NYSE, 1)}
Set{SP_yes, Count(SP500, 1)}
Set{sum, N_yes + SP_yes}
sum > 0.5

Set{MFI1, Count(Money Flow Index(15) reached new 4 week high, 3)}
Set{CHande1, Count(Chande Momentum Oscillator(20,9) reached new 4 week high, 3)}
Set{sum2, MFI1 + Chande1}
sum2 > 0

/* Companies are not profitable, are optionable, volume is adequate */
pe ratio < 0.1
optionable
average volume(45) > 700000


/* Swing criteria*/
close below ema(5)
close 1 day ago above ema(5) 1 day ago
close below open

/* Optional Stochastic Criteria*/
Slow Stochastics Slow %D(10) > 65 within last 3 days


draw ma(50)
draw ema(100)
draw ma(200)
draw Slow Stochastics Slow %D(10)
add column ind
add column eps
add column roe
add column pe ratio
add column exchange
]





Filter Exchange · 2010 SP500 and NYSE stocks for longs and shorts
trendscanner
msg #85271
12/30/2009 10:19:52 PM

Durgin, thanks for the heads up on the SF fundamental data. I'll definitely check Yahoo or other sources before making any trades based on this filter.

Having reliable fundamental data, especially going having data that goes back 4 to 6 quatters, would be a really big benefit for this site. Seems like those data are widely available and would be relatively easy to make available here.

Filter Exchange · 2010 SP500 and NYSE stocks for longs and shorts
trendscanner
msg #86061
1/12/2010 7:17:28 PM

dm1518, about your questions, here are a few thoughts.

Regarding when it would be optimal to trade large caps, I think it depends on what the market does. If it continues up, buying pullbacks of strong large cap companies probably makes sense. If it settles into a trading range, which I think is more likely, then using an oscillator, such as stochastics, will probably work for many large caps. If it starts tanking, then best to stay flat or short, obviously.

Personally, I don't think we're going to see the beginning of another true bull market for a long time. That doesn't mean there won't be bull rallys to be played.

A pair of filters that I think are good qualitative indicators of how overbought or oversold the market is are:

Fetcher[
index is SP500
rsi(2) > 95
]



and

Fetcher[
index is SP500
rsi(2) < 5
]



If you run these daily and generally track how many hits you get, it can provide an overall sense of how many SP500 stocks are getting overbought or oversold. I find that this works better for finding bottoms than tops. As a bottom approaches, once you get past the peak in how many stocks have rsi2 < 5, it can be a good qualitative indicator that a bottom is settling in. Then look for confirmation such as the SP500 bullish percent index crossing above its 4 day MA.

Not sure how to track the relative amount of money going into or out of large caps versus small caps. Maybe others on the form can offer some ideas.

General Discussion · 545 PEOPLE vs. 300,000,000 By Charlie Reese
trendscanner
msg #87770
modified
2/3/2010 4:53:27 PM

I'm definitely up for voting all incumbents out of office. I'm not convinced it would change a whole lot.

It's hard to have much of an impact on the world we live in. One thing I do is support small, locally-owned businesses whenever I I have a choice regarding a purchase. Small businesses have to compete in a true free market with real competition, not like many of the large mega-businesses who, through their major lobbying activities, are often part of the crony-capitalism oligopolies that have contributed significantly to the current economic problems. I'm not "against" the large companies, I'm just more "for" the smaller independent businesses.

Examples - I've moved my banking operations to a local credit union from Wachovia (now part of Wells Fargo). When I need something from a hardware store, I go to the small local hardware shop rather than Home Depot. When going out to lunch or dinner, I'll usually go to a small independent restaurant or pub (that have real character) rather than a large chain. If I need running shoes, I'll go to the locally owned small athletic shop rather than Sports Authority. Etc, etc. Minimize the amount of my money that goes to the Corporate-Government Borg.

These are small actions, for sure, and in the larger scheme of things, perhaps they don't make a big difference. But hopefully, in the aggregate, it helps the local economy and people in my community.

General Discussion · ? can anybody find this BIO-Tech company ?
trendscanner
msg #79657
9/19/2009 8:58:26 AM

mystiq, I'm don't know exactly which company is referred to here but I think I've narrowed down the possibilities.

A quick Google search shows the 2009 World Stem Cell Summit happening in Baltimore, Sept 21-23.

http://www.worldstemcellsummit.com/

Long list of academic heavyweights speaking at this conference.

Checking the presentation agenda on the website shows 10 CEOs from biotech companies speaking. Eliminating privately owned companies and Osiris narrows the potential list down to: Celgene (CELG), StemCells, Inc, (STEM) Stem Cell Therateutics (SSS.V), Neostem (NBS), and Biotime (BTIM)

CELG hasn't shot up 50% this year. Probably not the company he's referring to.

NBS is up about 400% YTD. Looks like an interesting company, might be the one he's referring to, although price increase doesn't match.

Couldn't find anything on Stem Cell Therapeutics (SSS.V from Yahoo),maybe its delisted

STEM shot way up early this year but came back down, up about 50% for the year and in a long flat base. Seems unlikely this is who he's referring to but possibly.

BTIM has had a nice uptrend this year, up from about 1.80 on Jan 1 to about 4.50 on Friday. That just about meets the up 150% he mentions.If I had to guess, I'd say he's probably referring to BTIM. BTIM looks like a buy to me on a pullback.

STEM has what may be the strongest academic and scientific team of that group. If they develop something marketable, they might take off from their base pretty quickly.

General Discussion · ? can anybody find this BIO-Tech company ?
trendscanner
msg #79708
9/20/2009 9:07:34 AM

Cheton, thanks for the CRIM link. I spent some time looking at their website and downloaded their 2008 annual report. About $800 million in grants already awarded and maybe another $billion in the pipeline. Lots of matching contributions being made by private investors and research foundations. Most of the money went to California state universities, which makes sense since it's state taxpayer dollars. But Stanford also got $110,000,000 and was the largest single recipient. With that kind of money and the level of bain power involved, I'm sure there will be some companies associated with this industry that will eventually be 5 or 10 bagger stocks.

Not too many publically traded companies appear to be in the thick of this so far. The ones presenting at the global conference are probably the ones to watch. BTIM is one of only a few publically traded company that received a grant (about $4,000,000). Stanford's director of stem cell research is a scientific advisor to STEM and one of his former post-doc students leads STEM's research efforts. I expect they'll figure out a practical application of this technology at some point.


General Discussion · ? can anybody find this BIO-Tech company ?
trendscanner
msg #79713
9/20/2009 11:08:54 AM

On STEM's home page, http://www.stemcellsinc.com/company/scientificfounders.html

under the Company's Scientific Founders

Irving L. Weissman
Irving L. Weissman, M.D., is the Karel and Avice Beekhuis Professor of Cancer Biology, Professor of Pathology, and Professor of Developmental Biology at Stanford University and Director of the Stanford Institute for Cancer/Stem Cell Biology and Medicine, Palo Alto, California. Dr. Weissman's lab was responsible for the discovery of the first ever mammalian stem cell, the hematopoietic (blood-forming) stem cell. Dr. Weissman was responsible for the formation of three stem cell companies, SyStemix, Inc., StemCells, Inc., and Cellerant, Inc. He is a member of the Board of Directors and Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Boards of StemCells and Cellerant. Dr. Weissman co-discovered the mammalian and human hematopoietic stem cells and the human neural stem cell. Past achievements of Dr. Weissman's laboratory include identification of the states of development between stem cells and mature blood cells and identification of the states of thymic lymphocyte development. More recently, his laboratory at Stanford has developed accurate mouse models of human leukemias, and has shown the central role of inhibition of programmed cell death in that process. Dr. Weissman has been elected to the National Academy of Sciences. He has received the Kaiser Award for Excellence in Preclinical Teaching, the Pasarow Foundation Award, and the Outstanding Investigator Award from the National Institutes of Health


From the Management page on same website

Nobuko Uchida, Ph.D., VP, Stem Cell Biology
Dr. Nobuko Uchida is responsible for the Company's discovery initiative focusing on identifying new stem or progenitor cells, as well as for characterizing the Company's human neural stem cell and candidate liver and pancreas stem cells. Dr. Uchida has been with the Company since 1998, and in 1999 she was first to identify, by cell surface marker, the human central nervous system stem cell. Dr. Uchida was previously employed at SyStemix, Inc. as a Research Scientist working on hematopoietic stem cell biology, and has worked in stem cell biology for the past 15 years. Dr. Uchida obtained her Ph.D. in Cancer Biology from Stanford University and completed her post doctoral training in the laboratory of Dr. Irving Weissman at the Stanford University School of Medicine.



Their other founders have impressive credentials and experience too.

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