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Filter Exchange · Upper ascending triangle 2
traderblues
msg #43114
4/21/2006 12:45:59 PM

Actually, I think it is. It looks like the upper ascending triangle line is at around 39.60. The close is 36.77, which is about 8% below 39.60.


Filter Exchange · 78% Win rate but how to work it??
traderblues
msg #42953
4/14/2006 8:11:01 AM

maxreturn-

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry, I should have explained more.


Filter Exchange · 78% Win rate but how to work it??
traderblues
msg #42927
4/13/2006 8:02:36 AM

I think a 90% success rate is unreasonable. In my opinion, anything over 67% for a short-term swing system is good. For longer term trend following systems, you can make a lot of money with a 50% success rate. I don't pay a lot of attention to ROI. That can be a very misleading number. The 3 things I look at are:
1. A Reward:Risk ratio better than 3:1
2. Number of trades made
3. Average return per trade

I have also discovered a key element in good results: In the backtester, set your entry price as S1, and set it so the buy won't execute if S1 is not hit. You will find that you will only be buying about 20% of the stocks that make your filter, but the return per trade is much higher.


Filter Exchange · i have a filter,it may be a money maker
traderblues
msg #42884
4/11/2006 7:38:32 AM

How about this;

Fetcher[Show stocks where close crossed above 2 in the last 4 days
and count(close is above 2.1,4) is below 0.5
and close is below 2
and close is above 1.9
and price is above MA(200)
and average Volume(20) is above 100000
]




General Discussion · Buy and hold stocks for nice ROI
traderblues
msg #42811
4/7/2006 5:57:10 PM

heyen,

Nice! Start with a basket, and hold them as long as they stay on the list. I like it. The only thing I would question is, if a stock crosses above $10, then it will disappear from the list. Would you sell a stock if it crossed above $10?
I think I might take that line out. When you buy a stock, you can always manually weed out the ones that are above $10.


General Discussion · Buy and hold stocks for nice ROI
traderblues
msg #42771
4/6/2006 7:53:06 AM

At the lower end of your price range ($1.30), I'll throw in BWLRF. It is about 3 weeks past the DMI crossover, but is showing a lot of momentum, and might have a long way to go yet (upward).


General Discussion · Suggestions for tools needed for non-active (day) traders.
traderblues
msg #42764
4/5/2006 5:55:27 PM

Oh yeah, I see that in your post now. I have always liked www.clearstation.com, also.

I will sometimes watch Level II pre-market if some news came out on a stock, but only for stocks I am holding and am thinking of selling. Otherwise, I feel that Level II is not very beneficial for my style (I hold stocks anywhere from a few days to a few weeks). It just adds to the noise.


General Discussion · Suggestions for tools needed for non-active (day) traders.
traderblues
msg #42759
4/5/2006 3:47:44 PM

Don't forget www.prophet.net


Backtesting Support · What's a Good Risk:Reward Ratio?
traderblues
msg #36786
7/8/2005 7:56:40 AM

Sorry about the formatting problems with that last post. I'll try it again.

Period--------Number of Buys--Winning%--Reward:Risk
9/1/02-3/1/03------11-------------60------------3.60
3/1/03-9/1/03------34-------------91-----------20.61
9/1/03-3/1/04------43-------------82------------8.74
3/1/04-9/1/04------43-------------76------------4.37
9/1/04-3/1/05------49-------------70------------4.73

Brian


Backtesting Support · What's a Good Risk:Reward Ratio?
traderblues
msg #36785
7/8/2005 7:49:47 AM

All,

I've backtested a system that doesn't give that many opportunities, but gives very good returns. I tested it for 5 different 6-month periods, and came up with the following results:

Period Number of buys Winning % Reward:Risk
9/1/02-3/1/03 11 60 3.60
3/1/03-9/1/03 34 91 20.61
9/1/03-3/1/04 43 82 8.74
3/1/04-9/1/04 43 76 4.37
9/1/04-3/1/05 49 70 4.73

I want to do some more checking, with some actual case testing on this before I pass along the details, but I will say it uses ADX as a buy signal, and holds stocks for 10 day periods.

Brian


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