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General Discussion · 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
msg #68724
10/23/2008 8:18:49 PM

Can not agree with step 7, check your portfolio once a year. Take a peek now and find 40% gone will not make you a millionaire.

General Discussion · 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
msg #68775
10/25/2008 3:53:52 AM


Let's say you started investing in the slotmarket five years ago. Today all the gains made since have been wiped out. You think I'll be able to convince you that buy and hope is the way? I don't think so. But if you do think so, then I got a bridge to sell you too.

This is heading toward the arguement between buy and hope versus market timing. TRO please let me know if you don't want us to hijack your thread and to start a fresh one.

General Discussion · 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
msg #68798
10/26/2008 12:26:07 AM

I don't have any problems with the other nine steps, they're all fine and good.

Well, let me clarify now that I have TRO's blessing. I think most of us have been brainwashed into thinking that the best and only way to grow your long term investment in the slotmarket in to buy and hope, that you'll never be able to time the market so just forget about it. The most popular argument is that if you try to time the market you'll miss out on the large gains at the start of bull markets. My two cents on that is, why don't they ever talk about the other side of that argument? What if you had missed out on the humongous losses of all the bear markets? From the studies that I've seen, avoiding the bear is more advantageous for your portfolio than missing the bull.

Let's look at the last two vicious bears, 2000 and the current nightmare on wall street. Using something as simple and unsophisticated as the 50 dma 200 dma crossover as your timing signal you be a happy camper right now. Go to some free charting site like yahoo finance and bring up the SP500 chart of the last ten years with those two moving averages and you'll see that you would not have miss out on much of the last bull market from the spring of 2003 and that you would've gotten out by the first day of this year. And it would've gotten you out of the 2000 bear also. You do that math and see how much ahead of buy and hope you'll be timing the market the last ten years.

Of course there is a catch, isn't there always. That is in the implementation.

For the record all my IRA's have been in cash well before the start of this year.

I'm heading up to Tahoe in a few hours and won't be able to respond until Tuesday evening but I'm sure this will get things rolling.

General Discussion · 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
msg #68875
10/29/2008 2:14:25 AM

Let's look at this little scenario. Roll the clock back 20 years. We are living in boom time Japan. I'm 45 years old and will be retiring in 20 years when I'm 65. I've hired a very competent financial adviser who tells me just buy the Nikkei index fund and hold it for 20 years and I will retire a rich man. I couldn't find any reasons to doubt him, after all, the market's been going up year after year and my house too. I instruct my company's 401K plan to take a portion of my pay every week and buy the Nikkei and went back to working hard at my job for the next 20 years. Forward to today, I'm 65 and should be retiring next week.
But I can't afford to retire because when i started buying the index fund back in 1998 the Nikkei was at 28,000 and today it is at 8,087.

How can this be? I did everything right. I bought and held just like the generation before me who retired very comfortably with their huge 401K nest egg. What the hell happened?

chart of Nikkei^N225#chart2:symbol=^n225;range=19840131,20081028;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

Sorry, I lack skills to embed the chart in the post.

Filter Exchange · 2-Period RSI
msg #49165
1/11/2007 11:45:03 PM


Thanks for the link to a very good read. With the empirical data backing up the power of the RSI2 strategy, I feel much more confident using it. I've always been more comfortable with buy low sell high rather than buy high sell higher. Not that I'm knocking buy high sell higher which I'm sure is a profitable strategy for some.

The RSI2 filter alone can return a very large number of stocks, too many for me to manage. Does anyone have a profitable RSI2 filter incorporating a few other conditions which will produce 20 or less stocks? Or just a method to narrow down which RSI2 selections to focus on will help.

General Discussion · A filter worth paying for
msg #52925
7/10/2007 3:37:45 AM

The best things in life are free, same goes for filters. If you think I'm joking, just wait for others here to offer their concurring opinion.

General Discussion · A filter worth paying for
msg #52975
7/11/2007 2:09:29 AM

7/10/2007 3:24:52 PM

Some may actually believe their system works for some of the people, but, rest assured that all will primarily be interested in parting you from your hard earned money."

I don't believe you're referring any of the posters to this thread.

OK, Anthony, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. Contact me and you'll get a working/profitable filter for FREE.

PS. When you have found me, the filter will be there waiting for you. Again, no joke. If you are unable to find me, then it'd be fair to say you didn't desereve it.

General Discussion · A filter worth paying for
msg #53158
7/16/2007 1:51:39 AM

My instructions to anthony is universal, will be applicable to anyone else.

Nothing like solving a little riddle to get those wheels upstairs turning, eh?


Filter Exchange · A Question re Posting:"LONG FILTER - 1-2 day hold"
msg #51546
5/12/2007 10:47:42 AM

The filter works, I've gotten results but very far and few in between days. I'll backtest it when I have more time later and will post some numbers for you.

General Discussion · Blog: Designing a Profitable System - Keep It Simple
msg #51650
5/17/2007 12:08:17 AM

Thanks Guru for the good read. Had some good positive reinforcements such as moving stop up to breakeven after clearing by a proper margin. And K.I.S.S. sometimes works best.

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