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General Discussion · Dow Theory' Confirms Sell Signal
msg #102012
8/5/2011 1:52:41 AM

WSJ reporting it 2 days after the fact is like the horse has already left the this case more stampeded. is much more timely.
He posted it Tuesday evening
"The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011."

General Discussion · how to tell if the bottom is in
msg #73099
3/27/2009 2:03:49 AM

These guys got it all figured out using their proprietary algorithm and years of back testing

Filter Exchange · DROPPED LIKE A ROCK
msg #69738
12/10/2008 4:37:46 AM

TRO, pardon my ignorance as I don't know squat when it comes to coding, it's just greek to me, could you please explain what this filter does?

Filter Exchange · seeking for trading filters....
msg #69737
12/10/2008 4:31:17 AM

How can I be sure you will send me the money after I send you the filter?

General Discussion · RDN
msg #69691
12/8/2008 6:00:29 PM

marine is that 30,000 shares? times $4.50 equals $135,000. Can you spare a nickel?
Man that's eye popping awesome. Big congrats.

General Discussion · I've got a couple of stocks, any additional suggestions
msg #69641
12/7/2008 1:48:43 AM

You're not on the right track if you want to trade any time frame longer than one day in these ultra volatile markets. On yesterday's Fast Money show, Jon Najarian said "These days Iím in trades for one to 8 minutes rather than hours or days."
If that's good enough for a professional trader like him, that's good enough for me. If you don't understand why the markets are having 500 point daily swings recently, I would recommend you stay on the sidelines and save your money.

General Discussion · Filter and trading strategy for trend trading
msg #69620
12/6/2008 12:27:57 PM

So, let me get this straight. You want a contest to see who can get the best backtest returns? Something like playing fantasy football? Yup that's correct. Backtest results and fantasy are the same thing. Don't just take my word for it , just ask around the folks here. You see that eye popping roi 1600% and you think you've found the holy grail. We've all been down that road before as many here can again attest to that. Your real life trading results will not match the backtest results as things like slippage, etc. will affect your returns.

There are filters that have backtest horribly but are traded profitably by many here. As TRO likes to say It's not what you trade but how you trade it. You don't need to find a filter that produces the highest backtest roi in the world to make money in the slotmarket. Having said that, the basic premise of your filter, that of fading the big move, is one that is traded profitably by many on a daily basis, so you are on the right track.

Your original post said you were looking for a win % of above 50. I would agree that a higher win% makes for a more tradeable filter as the length of losing streaks will be smaller. I played around with backtesting your filter and the highest win% was 41%, roi 1136% for the test period from 12/31/07 to 12/3/08. 5% stop loss, 17% profit stop, but the caveat is the holding period is only one day (day trade).

General Discussion · 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
msg #68875
10/29/2008 2:14:25 AM

Let's look at this little scenario. Roll the clock back 20 years. We are living in boom time Japan. I'm 45 years old and will be retiring in 20 years when I'm 65. I've hired a very competent financial adviser who tells me just buy the Nikkei index fund and hold it for 20 years and I will retire a rich man. I couldn't find any reasons to doubt him, after all, the market's been going up year after year and my house too. I instruct my company's 401K plan to take a portion of my pay every week and buy the Nikkei and went back to working hard at my job for the next 20 years. Forward to today, I'm 65 and should be retiring next week.
But I can't afford to retire because when i started buying the index fund back in 1998 the Nikkei was at 28,000 and today it is at 8,087.

How can this be? I did everything right. I bought and held just like the generation before me who retired very comfortably with their huge 401K nest egg. What the hell happened?

chart of Nikkei^N225#chart2:symbol=^n225;range=19840131,20081028;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

Sorry, I lack skills to embed the chart in the post.

General Discussion · SCA
msg #68799
10/26/2008 1:01:09 AM

Hey 13th,

Surprise to see you're still hanging around. Thought I heard that you were using your sizable winnings from the slotmarket to enjoy life in paradise (Hawaii).

Man, did we have a field day with DDR, er make that two field days in a row. That baby was a regular money machine. I rang the register about 10 times with it last two days and many others in the chat were downright giddy with the fun they were having with it. Though FDRY didn't provide as many opportunities as DDR, it did make for a couple of real loud KA CHINGs. If anyone is interested, the blow by blow is available in the chat logs.

When are you rejoining us in chat? Anyways good to hear from you.

General Discussion · 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
msg #68798
10/26/2008 12:26:07 AM

I don't have any problems with the other nine steps, they're all fine and good.

Well, let me clarify now that I have TRO's blessing. I think most of us have been brainwashed into thinking that the best and only way to grow your long term investment in the slotmarket in to buy and hope, that you'll never be able to time the market so just forget about it. The most popular argument is that if you try to time the market you'll miss out on the large gains at the start of bull markets. My two cents on that is, why don't they ever talk about the other side of that argument? What if you had missed out on the humongous losses of all the bear markets? From the studies that I've seen, avoiding the bear is more advantageous for your portfolio than missing the bull.

Let's look at the last two vicious bears, 2000 and the current nightmare on wall street. Using something as simple and unsophisticated as the 50 dma 200 dma crossover as your timing signal you be a happy camper right now. Go to some free charting site like yahoo finance and bring up the SP500 chart of the last ten years with those two moving averages and you'll see that you would not have miss out on much of the last bull market from the spring of 2003 and that you would've gotten out by the first day of this year. And it would've gotten you out of the 2000 bear also. You do that math and see how much ahead of buy and hope you'll be timing the market the last ten years.

Of course there is a catch, isn't there always. That is in the implementation.

For the record all my IRA's have been in cash well before the start of this year.

I'm heading up to Tahoe in a few hours and won't be able to respond until Tuesday evening but I'm sure this will get things rolling.

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