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General Discussion · Options are a rip-off
skymuse
msg #82473
11/5/2009 9:20:46 AM

I don't necessarily think in-the-month options are bad if you know what you're doing and/or are incredibly lucky.

Before I tried doing the M4M path, I was playing with in-the-month options with some success; you just have to be able to correctly guess/understand if a particular stock is particularly volatile for the next 1-3 weeks. I made more money (probably due to luck more than anything) doing this than I have with the more prudent out-of-the-month options. That has served only to lock my money up for another 3 weeks before it finally dies at zero.....




Filter Exchange · 4 MONTH CYCLE market bottom seems to happening
skymuse
msg #82471
11/5/2009 9:04:10 AM

I suggest extreme caution if you're going to follow M4M. I have done so 3 straight times -- completely lost once and am currently way down on 2 others; I expect them to expire worthless as well since they're so far down. You'd better have a better head with options than I do if you're going to roll these particular dice.

I'm obviously not getting something in this process, and the spoilage date on options is a big problem if you don't get it right. I did exactly what M4M said to do and am out a fair amount.

This isn't a "feel bad for me" post -- I've been an idiot who let someone else plan my trades and it's proof that you should not do that. I was doing fine at losing money myself, but with M4M's recommendations, I can now lose it 500% faster......no thanks!

Filter Exchange · on blow out earnings- you can get rich doing this
skymuse
msg #81601
10/23/2009 9:49:00 AM

Yup -- AMZN Nov 110 -- from .30 to 6.00 today.....and only 20 minutes in....wow!

BIDU also up, but AMZN; where's my time machine?!?



Filter Exchange · on blow out earnings- you can get rich doing this
skymuse
msg #81548
10/22/2009 12:36:49 PM

Actually you'll make someone else rich doing this.

I bought in the SLM Nov 13 calls as directed and am now >50% down, less than 2 hours later.......

I'm sure the logic is sound and works in a lot of instances, but people need to be careful and remember the DD. I'm just glad I was playing with a small amount. Who knows, maybe it'll pop back up, but at the moment I'm underwater FAST.

General Discussion · Important Information about our American Car Companies
skymuse
msg #69621
12/6/2008 12:56:35 PM

One of the biggest fallacies about this whole bailout is the idea that if we don't give the Big 3 their danegeld, they'll simply go away and usher in a depression. This is NOT what will happen.

Assuming Congress tells them to pound sand, what will happen is that one by one each of them will either consider merging or outright sale first. If/when those transactions don't happen, the next step will be bankruptcy and reorganization.

Bankruptcy is NOT the evil bugaboo that will make them disappear. From this perspective they are correct --- they are too big to fail. The bankruptcy and reorganization will allow them to shake off the parasitic UAW contracts as well as the over-promised employee pension plans and healthcare programs. Maybe they'll also give the gold-plated board members and executives the boot also.

Yes, we the people will pick up the pension plans through the gov't programs already in place. Guess what: we're going to anyway regardless of the bailout status.

But what will happen is that these companies will emerge anew, leaner and meaner, without the monstrous overhead they already carry (i.e., $2k on each car just for employee healthcare in GM's case), and the union involvement should be drastically reduced (too much to hope for ended entirely, but reduced is good). Hopefully they will have learned lessons about basic capitalism throughout this -- build good cars that people want, stop spending money on fighting CAFE standards, and tell the unions to stick it.

They're not going to go away. They will be altered, and for the better. The kindest thing we can do now is let them "fail" so they can regroup and succeed in the future. It is also the best thing for the nation, and it preserves the spirit of free enterprise, capitalism, and consequences for poor business management.

Filter Exchange · new high since new low
skymuse
msg #67771
9/26/2008 4:30:33 AM

Hi,

I'm trying to find stocks that have established a new low and then a new high since that low.

For example, I find the 260-day low:

set{260low, 260-day low}

Next I want to find the high price SINCE that low and calculate the close versus that new high. Note that this is NOT the 260-day high, only the high since the 260-day low.

set{newhi, ?????}
set{comp_diff, close - newhi}
set{comp_div, comp_diff/newhi}
set{comp_pct, 100 * comp_div}
close is within 25% of comp_pct

This low could have occurred a month ago, last week, or yesterday, so I'm not sure how to set up that variable. I can do the calculation once I have my newhi variable.

Please? I'll share once it's put together......

Thanks!

General Discussion · SF owners - feature request
skymuse
msg #66607
8/24/2008 8:43:06 AM

How about the ability to choose selected filters and download the results en masse to a csv file, preferably with a Filter Name field as well? Just a thought.....

Thanks for all your great work on this site!

General Discussion · ADX screen
skymuse
msg #65442
7/25/2008 11:50:17 PM

Infront --

Thank YOU for the idea; I've got some other things I'm playing with on this as well. If anything pans out I'll post back here.

Thanks again; the wheels are spinning....

General Discussion · ADX screen
skymuse
msg #65441
7/25/2008 11:49:05 PM

Marine,

Just curious -- what are your settings for backtesting?

I go with a 25% Stop Loss and 9% Profit Stop, and everything else default. With my variation I've also managed to get into the high 80% win range:

Win Lose W/L Ratio Reward/Risk ROI%
89% 11% 8.00:1 22.27 177.25%

Can't wait to try this one for real! Hopefully next week......



General Discussion · ADX screen
skymuse
msg #65399
7/24/2008 9:10:45 AM

My variation....I left the commented lines in but it seems to limit the filter too much and nothing comes back.

My backtesting with this variation (25% loss, 9% profit, everything else default) is in the 80% range......

Thanks for the idea!

Fetcher[
/*Skymuse variation*/
/*ADX filter - buy screen*/
/*show stocks where adx(14) 2 days ago had been decreasing for 5 days */
and adx(14) has been increasing for the last 2 days
and adx(14) above 25
and adx(14) above +DI(14)
/*and adx(14) below -DI(14)*/
and -DI(14) above +DI(14)
and +DI(14) has been increasing for the last 2 days
and -DI(14) has been decreasing for the last 2 days
and volume above 100000
and price above 1
]



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