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General Discussion · ETF Filter
novacane32000
msg #158902
modified
3/28/2022 11:39:14 AM

Fetcher[Close is below MA(5)
Average volume(50) above 500,000
RSI(2) below 5
stock market is ETF
optionable
]



General Discussion · Can someone explain this volume spike ?
novacane32000
msg #158885
3/25/2022 8:16:00 AM

This is one of my hurricane/disaster stocks.
I usually buy it when a hurricane is about to hit the US but it also does well when there are multiple natural disasters globally which there have not been many of lately and so you can see the chart is not very appealing.
I did know the company is repurchasing shares per the previous conf call and that it is currently undervalued and so I do have a small position. Can't tell you I know too much else concerning that specific insider buy.

I am not endorsing this stock as there may be much better buys out there. I happen to think this one has a shot at 10 soon.
I am transitioning more into an investor than a trader but I do know there are some good minds on this board and thought I could get the scoop on that crazy volume spike.

General Discussion · Can someone explain this volume spike ?
novacane32000
msg #158881
3/24/2022 3:57:10 PM

Thanks Cheese but still baffled.

I apparently know much less than the little I thought I knew about trading.

If you told me a thinly traded stock had a volume surge of >4000% in one day, I would bet a few paychecks that it moved well in excess of 20% in one direction or the other but it has barely moved.





General Discussion · Can someone explain this volume spike ?
novacane32000
msg #158875
3/24/2022 12:48:38 PM

Crawford A shares (CRD.A) normally trade about 30k shares/day. Thinly traded, to say the least.

So today they have a spike of 1.4 million shares traded at 11am. More shares "traded" in one hour than any single day in the last 8 years and the price barely moves??

Not sure what to make of this. Any thoughts ?



General Discussion · backtesting ideas
novacane32000
msg #157036
6/18/2021 2:06:02 PM

I have been searching for a sector rotation strategy for (SPY,XLE,XLB,XLV,XLY,XLK,XLU,XLF,XLP,XLI).

Every time I think I have something that works,it ends up that holding SPY worked better.

General Discussion · backtesting ideas
novacane32000
msg #157030
modified
6/18/2021 8:02:31 AM

Just seeing now that this thread is getting some traction

@Cheese-- I tried a few combinations on MACD slow/fast line crossovers and the results were so bad I stopped searching for a profitable combination. If anyone has a specific combo I can try to backtest it.

I did try several combos of the MACD crossing the zero line and (12,26,9) had the best results.

I use SPY as my benchmark for backtesting with the thinking that if it doesn’t work for SPY it won’t work for most equities .

Here are the other MACD combos I used crossing above the zero line and then exiting on a cross below the signal line.

(6,13,4)
(10,20,6)
(15,30,12)

Again, none worked better than (12,26,9) and it also worked well for most stocks in the SP500.

A few things I did find that I am now adding to all my backtest which reduces the max drawdown without too much sacrifice to net profit :
1) Take profit at 10%
2) Only take trades when price is above 150 MA
3) Instead of using a stop loss use the same signal you entered with to exit. So if for example you use a cross above RSI 2 ( ) to enter then use a cross below RSI 2 ( ) to exit.

@Redversa --Thanks for sharing your results. Do you manually trade your signals or do you have an automated system?

Also, does Marketinout allow you to optimize your backtest? I cannot do that on Trendspider. I have to enter every iteration manually.


General Discussion · backtesting ideas
novacane32000
msg #156956
modified
6/9/2021 6:26:32 PM

I use Trendspider. It is good for backtesting simple filters as you mention.

Here are the results of the MACD(12,26,9) signal line crossing above 0 as an entry and exit would be the signal line crossing below 0.

Daily for SPY

Over the past 4 years there were 11 positions

6 winners (avr win 9.38%)
5 losers (avr loss -2.48%)
Net profit 49%
Max drawdown -14.3%

So nice results for the investor type trader especially with the rather pain free low drawdown but the asset performance for SPY during the same period was 77% compared to the 49% gain from the strategy.


So you traded lower performance for a nice equity curve.

If you tell me exactly how you want to trade it, I can see if Trendspider can do the testing.


General Discussion · SF not working on my end, anyone else?
novacane32000
msg #156952
6/9/2021 9:27:22 AM

I was seeing the same thing all of Sunday AM. Looks good now.

General Discussion · Filter/Strategy Ideas
novacane32000
msg #156765
5/9/2021 9:56:00 AM

I actually have an excel sheet where I track daily SPY moves and thru 4/27/21 YTD here are some stats minus the social sentiment factor

Holding SPY just overnight (Buy at close sell at Open)
Wins 43
Loss 36
Avr Win .44%
Avr Loss -.34%
Best win 1.38%
Worst Loss -.93%

Hold SPY during Trading hours( Buy 9:30 EST sell 16:00 EST)
Wins 48
Loss 31
Avr Win .52%
Avr Loss- .64%
Best Win 1.40 %
Worst Loss -2.06%

Overnight Trades edge out Trading hours trades with an avr win /Trade of .08% vs .06%

General Discussion · Filter/Strategy Ideas
novacane32000
msg #156752
5/8/2021 7:57:22 AM

Has anyone checked out Quantpedia? Seems like a wealth of data to play around with. Tempted to get the premium package, any thoughts on this?

https://quantpedia.com/screener/page/2/?screener_tab=screener-classic&FilterPeriod=All&FilterMarkets=equities&FilterInstruments=All&FilterKeywords=All&FilterPerformance=All&FilterVolatility=All&FilterHedgeToEquitis=All&FilterTitle&FilterQuantConnect=All&FilterPeriodicUpdates=All&FilterConfidence=All&FilterDrawdown=All&FilterSharpe=All&FilterComplexity=All&FilterBacktest=All&FilterBacktestLength=All&FilterNbrInstruments=All&FilterPremium=All&FilterOtherPapers=All&FilterRegion=All&View&Column&Direction



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