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Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily
kibo
msg #134259
2/13/2017 12:57:18 PM

I made a mistake and shorted YINN also too soon. I guess it will hit 20.5 or 20.6 before any pull back.

Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily
kibo
msg #134158
2/9/2017 10:37:23 AM

@Kevin just wanted to thank you, as you are doing exceptionally well on your short thread you have. I have been following your pattern. I happen to use a filter with very similar output as yours but was afraid to trade and when I see your postings, I get confidence. This last one shorting NUGT was tough I got signal few days ago and waited to short higher.

Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily
kibo
msg #133986
1/31/2017 11:20:58 AM

Fundamentally I don't see any reason for major pull back. In either case, rates dropped again and that is again good for stocks. If they go up, again that's good for stocks unless it goes up dramatically which I highly doubt it would. The only case for that if china starts dumping treasuries in faster pace. Feds won't do anything. So I guess Kevin's trade is good.

Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily
kibo
msg #133969
1/30/2017 3:06:07 PM

I think Kevin did a good job again. This market is systematic not emotional. I see still money pours into stocks and shorting VIX. But we are kind of on edge, one trump tweet can disrupt everything.

Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily
kibo
msg #133957
1/30/2017 10:59:02 AM

I guess XIV has some room to fall. There will be better buying opportunity.

Filter Exchange · A NEW ^VIX TRADING SYSTEM
kibo
msg #133464
1/2/2017 7:58:12 AM

OK the last trade is now in the money but not by a huge margin compared to huge draw down. But this is very promising... Thanks Kevin for this. I think it can be optimized. I will try to see if I can re-implement it using python and post it here. That's mainly because I don't have SS account.

Filter Exchange · A NEW ^VIX TRADING SYSTEM
kibo
msg #133413
12/27/2016 4:35:18 PM

The contago has rendered the system useless... Now VIX and UVXY/TVIX have negative correlation! VIX is up 4% and UVXY down 3%!!! Its ridiculous. I guess if we want to get back to where we were we need around 30-40% move on VIX.

Filter Exchange · A NEW ^VIX TRADING SYSTEM
kibo
msg #133350
12/21/2016 4:00:49 PM

As a follow up I see CMF of SPX has become barely negative finally. Everytime that happened, we had min 30points drop. I still don't know if VIX will spike on the drop because of contagon. This is specially true as SPY closed below 226.

Filter Exchange · A NEW ^VIX TRADING SYSTEM
kibo
msg #133349
12/21/2016 3:41:14 PM

I am still holding with a lot of loss, but contagon seems to be coming down. I don't know if I should hold or sell on the next up leg and cut my losses.

Filter Exchange · A NEW ^VIX TRADING SYSTEM
kibo
msg #133292
12/19/2016 3:20:50 PM

@kevin Thanks for the comment. Have you tested the system against the ETFs to see what would be the difference in outcome? I don't have SS account yet. Perhaps, I can help in that once I get one. Also, contago can be calculated from VXX VXZ ratios. But on the overall, I guess you are right, we shouldn't try to over optimize it if its already working.

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