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Filter Exchange · Thanks to DMA(28,-14) made 12K on SBUX!!
guru_trader
msg #40937
2/3/2006 2:58:56 AM

Care to post the entry filters you used to enter that trade?


Filter Exchange · Trade Planner Filter Display
guru_trader
msg #40780
1/30/2006 1:29:55 AM

Ohhhhh, you beat me to the punch ... I was about to post my own version on Friday! I'll post it later this week.


General Discussion · New virus deletes Microsoft Office and PDF files on the 3rd of each month
guru_trader
msg #40740
1/27/2006 6:07:49 PM

Just a reminder to update your anti-virus software and run a virus scan regularly ... this new worm likes to delete all your Microsoft Office and PDF files on the 3rd day of every month ... that would suck!


Kama Sutra worm set to bite next week
By Tom Espiner
URL: http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1009_22-6031881.html
Businesses have been warned to brace themselves for a possible traffic spike next week caused by the Kama Sutra worm.

The virus, dubbed Nyxem.E among other names, was first reported on Jan. 16. It is thought to have infected more than half a million PCs. Security vendor IronPort warned Thursday that these machines are now hard-coded to propagate the virus on Feb. 3.

Companies are unlikely to be directly affected if they are running up-to-date antivirus software, because the major antivirus vendors have now released patches. But IronPort warned that companies could experience secondary effects, as the virus tries to propagate itself by harvesting e-mail addresses on an infected machine.

"The knock-on effects will come as compromised PCs try to communicate with businesses. This will cause additional e-mail and network traffic and a possible slowdown in e-mail response time," said Jason Steer, a technical consultant at IronPort.

F-Secure has reported that Nyxem.E reached the top position on Thursday in its virus statistics list, with 21.7 percent of all reported infections. The worm has infected some 300,000 systems, according to a Lurhq analysis of logs from a Web site statistic counter that the worm uses to keep track of its spread.

Once active, Nyxem will try to delete all Word, Excel, PowerPoint and PDF file types from a compromised PC. The multifaceted malicious software will also attempt to propagate itself, both through e-mail and as a network worm, which can be particularly damaging on closed networks.

"Nyxem is certainly malicious. It can be delivered via e-mail, but also as a network worm. It probes other PCs on a closed network to compromise them and send itself to the other computers, to infect as many hosts as possible," Steer said.

The malicious software hides in attachment types not typically blocked by attachment filters, IronPort said.

The Internet community will not know the scale of the February attack until it occurs. "It depends on how many hosts are infected," Steer said. "At the moment it's just sitting there quietly, and we won't know how many home users have been infected until Feb. 3."

Businesses should warn their employees not to open suspicious e-mails, and to know what these e-mails may look like. "The subject lines may contain some references to pornography--fairly typical stuff," Steer said.

"Be vigilant. Update your antivirus patches and make sure your hard disk has been scanned to detect and remove the virus," he added.

Nyxem has the potential to cause havoc throughout the year, as infected PCs are set to activate on the third day of every month, unless they are cleaned up.

Tom Espiner of ZDNet UK reported from London.


General Discussion · Guru_Traders Uncertainty Principle applied to Backtesting
guru_trader
msg #40739
1/27/2006 5:25:49 PM

I read a thread the other day that got me thinking about backtesting. Shelupinin had just opened up a trading account with $20,000 and had lost several thousand of it within the first few weeks. (See thread entitled, "psychological problems after loose".) He asked why he would lose so much money on a trading system that backtested so well. Many great, and accurate, reasons have been given, but I'd like to add another.

I was thinking about the concept of backtesting last night and realized that no backtest can ever be accurate for the simple reason that a backtester's trades never actually influenced the movement of stocks over that period of time. It's just a side-by-side simulation.

It's much like "Guru_Trader's Uncertainty Principle (GTUP)" ... where, at any point in time, it is uncertain how your position in a system (market) will affect that system (market)! The system (market) will always be influenced by your participation (trading) in ways you may not be able to predict. The best you can do is calculate probabilities and odds.

Applied to backtesting, we can't judge the accuracy of our backtesting results unless our stocks are actually IN THAT SYSTEM!

It may be that, as our relative percentage ownership in the market decreases, we will most probably increase the accuracy of our backtesting. In other words, the fewer stocks we own in the market, the smaller our influence on the market (up to a certain point) and, the more accurate our backtesting will be ... at least, in theory.

This leads to another important corollary, backtesters who never put their money in the market will always have different percentage ROIs than those who actually have their money in the market!


General Discussion · How to calculate preferred minimum volume to buy / sell stock?
guru_trader
msg #40725
1/27/2006 6:20:51 AM

So, what percentage of daily trading volume ownership is considered too much?


Filter Exchange · Heres a Penny stock filter that will blow your mind!!!
guru_trader
msg #40647
modified
1/26/2006 4:24:20 AM

That may be, but I've been learning to work with the backtesting feature on this site and it has a lot more potential than I originally thought.

Note: Backtesting is definitely not a way to trade since it involves "curve-fitting" but it can be fun tweaking the results.

So far, I have tweaked the backtest of "Rigg's Penny Stock Filter" using TRO's RSI exit strategy over the last two years and here are the results:
2004-2005 = 1200.92%
2004 only = 1022.18%
2005 only = 1323.45%

Keep in mind, this is for "Entertainment Purposes Only" and I doubt I would have taken many of the risky trades this filter would have recommended.



Filter Exchange · Stocks NOT NEAR or MOVING AWAY FROM a low or high?
guru_trader
msg #40706
1/26/2006 4:22:15 AM

Thanks Niko!


Filter Exchange · Stocks NOT NEAR or MOVING AWAY FROM a low or high?
guru_trader
msg #40698
1/25/2006 5:34:49 PM

How do we find stocks that are "not near" and/or "moving away from" (as opposed to approaching) a certain indicator?

For example,

stocks "not near" their 10 day low in the last 1 day

stocks "moving away from" their 10 day low in the last 1 day


General Discussion · How to calculate preferred minimum volume to buy / sell stock?
guru_trader
msg #40693
1/25/2006 3:46:12 PM

What percentage of volume is considered strategically and/or statistically sound when buying and selling stocks? I know there needs to be enough average volume to allow for a relatively "stress-free" buy/sell; so, what are the preferred ways of determining this minimum volume?

How does this percentage of volume change when dealing with penny stocks? Should we consider price-to-volume ratios when calculating these percentages, as some mentioned? Someone mentioned purchasing no more than 20% of average volume(10), while others have mentioned calculating minimum volumes based on average trade length.

I've read some archived threads about this, but can't easily find them again.


Filter Exchange · Help with simple idea
guru_trader
msg #40657
1/23/2006 10:54:11 PM

Several really good consolidation filters have already been posted ... should be easy to find in the archives


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