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General Discussion · I Just want to Share ... (Tongue in Cheek)
dtatu
msg #156218
modified
3/20/2021 7:40:00 PM

My humble opinion for avoiding Pigs: I used to have 2 big problems:
1- discipline of exiting at the "stops" ( « A long term trade is a Short term trade gone wrong»)
2- overtrading

I solved no.1!! ( Inspired by Chuck Hughes's style)
-A- only enter long in liquid-optionable- stocks in which 1 Mo EMA > 10 mo EMA and the 10 moEMA is trending up
B- instead of stock , buy an In the money call : the level of the call should be the stock stop level ( I use the lowest low of the last 3 months); use Chuck's 1% rule( do not pay > 1% extrinsic premium; so it takes a 1% move only to break even in the option); this guarantees you 'll be out when your hypothesis for your long position is no longer valid( in my case , a 3 month low), if you lack, like me, the discipline of getting out.
It also saves a lot of margin , simulating a stock with a ITM call+1%.
Ex: your stock is at 40; your stop is at 32; buy 32 call( expires more than 1 month out) : 1% of the stock price =0.4: ideally, do not pay > (40-32)+0.4= 8.4 premium .
* for No 2- I did not find a solution, but I try sticking to a 1-2 % max risk per trade /value of account + taking trades in less correlated markets. Maybe somebody else has an opinion in mastering the overtrading?


General Discussion · MACD
dtatu
msg #156137
3/13/2021 11:59:01 AM

Also, Wisam, if you think you discovered America with this MACD divergence filter, without even taking a look at it, I can tell you right away: You're wrong.
It took me years and years to remove all the complicated lines and MA's and oscillators from my real time trading .
1-The best thing that happened to me was to remove the daily charts from trading and only use weeklies filtered with monthlies.
2- as filters, a simple 3 week horizontal breakout up or down ( weekly Donchian might help) and that's almost all of it. Simple is always better.
Actually, The BIG secret is the Size of the Bet ( money management), not the indicators.

General Discussion · MACD
dtatu
msg #156135
modified
3/13/2021 10:35:28 AM

Totally in agreement : Although I' m not very active on the Forum , I use SF filters for my own trading for many-many years now. This group has seen it ALL. They always shared their filters and helped with their opinions improving them.
MACD has no secrets for this group , either. The chances you'll impress the group with your proprietary formula are close to NONE. I think you are in the wrong place with this mentality, sorry Wisam.

Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions
dtatu
msg #151469
3/26/2020 1:25:12 PM

Bravo to VE for the 100 trades STATS.
Thanks

Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions
dtatu
msg #151337
modified
3/20/2020 11:05:31 PM

Hello Guys,
First Thanks to VE for what seems to be a decent and simple filter.
I'm using it in real time: not enough trades yet to make stats, but, it feels good!
I made some changes for the real time trading which lower a lot the stress of big moves:
1. I do not enter on market on Open , to avoid the first minutes of big convulsions; I wait 5-10 minutes: if stable, I enter:especially an slow upward move( unless there is a big move down already on the open: I do not chase it)
2. As soon as I enter I put a stop loss above a significant previous high, or the amount at risk/trade
3. I exit 1/2 the position when profit = risk, creating a risk free trade( on several occasions, big moves during the day were erased before the close: frustrating)
4. I do not cover MOC but rather at 15.45-15.50: I noticed several times, that a losing position tends to be bid up in the last minutes of trading.

Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions
dtatu
msg #151084
3/5/2020 5:17:31 AM

Sorry,
I understand.

Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions
dtatu
msg #151082
modified
3/4/2020 7:50:45 PM

also
I did not find shares to short in
INO and NCNA

Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions
dtatu
msg #151081
modified
3/4/2020 7:49:56 PM

In response to the post from 4 march Re. APT trade: I'm surprised to see that loss, as I took a small 100 sh test- trade :
EXIT:APT 2020-03-04, 15:59:00 2020-03-06 - BUY 100 16.1800 -1,618.00 -1.00 0.00 D
Total APT (Bought) 100 16.1800 -1,618.00 -1.00 0.00

ENTRY: APT 2020-03-04, 10:06:28 2020-03-06 - SELL -100 18.5000 1,850.00 -1.05 0.00 P
Total APT (Sold) -100 18.5000 1,850.00 -1.05 0.00
Total APT 0 232.00 -2.05 0.00
Total 232.00 -2.05 0.00

The open was 16.75; the low 15.51

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/APT/technical-chart?plot=HLWCDL&volume=total&data=DO&density=M&pricesOn=0&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=KELT(21)&sym=APT&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions
dtatu
msg #150445
modified
1/22/2020 7:33:04 AM

Maybe a Safer Bet( decreasing risk of a severe loss) is:
1. wait for the 1 st reversal day after a New high?( sell on the close a Close lower than the Open)
2. sell on a trade above a previous significant weekly High?( I noticed that some of them take out a significant high before collapsing)

Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions
dtatu
msg #150423
modified
1/20/2020 9:37:03 PM

I agree with the post of Novacane 32000:
- if you do not test it with STOPS , you should never trade it.
We have some recent examples of 1 SINGLE FATAL TRADE, after long lasting winners:
- Kevin with XIV
- and the Famous : Optionsellers.com: one single Fatal NatGas trade blew up a successful Firm after 20 yrs?( naked options)
-https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/12/18/the-optionsellers-debacle/

One should NEVER be exposed to the upside with no stops, especially in these volatile stocks.
Q: is there an inverse system , in which the downside risk is maximum ZERO?

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