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General Discussion · Happy holidays everyone.
msg #98029
12/16/2010 1:02:32 PM

I can't believe it has been a year already!!!

Happy Holidays, Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas

General Discussion · Swing Trading Ideas and methods
msg #98028
12/16/2010 12:55:14 PM

Eman, I sent you an email few days ago. Did you get it? I am not sure if the email adress I have still your primary.
Anyway, did you develop the filter for the triangle pattern or it was already on the site?

General Discussion · TRO Fade the gaps for next week
msg #98013
12/15/2010 12:57:33 PM

Nice trade and great job sticking to your plan. Not a biggie but I believe there is a typo in the second exist, it should be 51.xx not 50.xx

General Discussion · Where is Mr. Luck?
msg #97921
12/10/2010 12:52:09 AM

I am sorry to hear about your recent trading experience. I see some of our friends here have already offered you what looks like a robust and reliable filters. However, I am concerned more with your strategy and tactics. From what you said, it looks like you are using the Japanese Candlestick patterns as trading triggers. If you have read Steve Nison work on the subject – he is the highest authority on Candlesticks and the one you should be learning from – you would know that Candlesticks are best combined with western traditional technical analysis to define a complete trading strategy. In fact, the pullback you mentioned with ALTID is very common with Engulfing pattern as well as the Hammer. Here is a quote from page 44
“A prime use of the engulfing pattern is utilizing them as support and resistance”
Another quote from the same page
“… by the time a bullish engulfing pattern is completed ….. the market may be well ff its lows. As such, I would feel that it has gotten away from an attractive buying area”
From these quotes you can conclude that the pattern itself is by no means a trigger and whatever your entry point would be, you have to be very comfortable with the risk associated with it. For instance, some traders enter long once the market is trading above the close of the engulfing candle. At this scenario, your stop is below the low of the same candle; remember, the low of the candle is a support. The low of the engulfing candle in ALTID example was 1.72 and the close was 2.24. This is a (0.52 * lot size) to risk. Are you ok with that? Some less aggressive traders put the stock on watch list and wait for a pullback near 50% of the engulfing candle before they enter so they can be a little closer to the logical stop. The pullback may never come but nonetheless, this is the trading plan they are comfortable with.
The most important point I want to make and the mistake we all keep doing until we learn the hard way is, patterns and filters help us compile a list of potential trade candidates, timing the trade for low risk entry is a whole different story. You can have a winning trade that goes sore because you entered prematurely and no longer can stand the heat. Once you get out, the market – of course – go into your planed direction but without you.
Spend some time studying and never trade a strategy without back testing it. After that, try paper trading the strategy for a while before you risk you hard earned money on live trades. Finally, even though John and Kevin are advanced traders and I am sure they will not post a filter they don’t trust their own money with; trading these filters – or any filter for that matter - blindly can still lead to the same results you are suffering from right now. Spend some time developing a trading plan for these filters. Your stop must be the first and most important decision you make before you enter. Make sure you are absolutely ok – both financially and emotionally - in case this stop gets triggered. If not, reduce your lot or pass. Now, what is your entry trigger and on what time frame (for example 5, 15, 60 minutes chart). What if the stock gaps up? Are you going to wait for a pullback? Chase? Or pass? Answer all of these questions before you entered a trade, I think this will increase your odds of winning.
Best of luck to you and sorry if my reply is too long.

General Discussion · Question about a 60min chart in relation to the delay chart .....
msg #97572
11/20/2010 3:33:26 PM

Daily charts don’t have the data you need to calculate the hourly moving averages. Simple moving average – as you sure know – is the sum of data points divided by their count. The daily bar doesn’t address the close of each hour. You can go from fine granularity to less (i.e from hourly data to daily) but not the other way around. Best of luck

General Discussion · Not hard to see why we are in the situation we are in...
msg #97199
10/25/2010 10:49:48 PM

These are the same people who will elect someone like Sarah Palin to be our next president. I don't see this funny at all. Actually, it is extremely sad.

General Discussion · Intraday Alerts
msg #96745
10/5/2010 1:56:23 PM

Congratulations John!! Hard work always pays off.

General Discussion · Swing Trading Ideas and methods
msg #96719
10/4/2010 12:37:48 AM

Eman, Once I finished my MBA, I ran away to Hawaii for 3 weeks to rejuvenate and recharge my batteries. I am back now and hoping to be able to participate here as actively as I can. I am following your work for a while now and I am really impressed with the progress you make.

John, I don’t listen to market gurus and I am not one of them by any starch of imagination. I only try to read the market signals and put my $$ where my thoughts are. Trend following trading methodology is a legitimate one and it has its own axioms with “The trend is your friend” being the most common, and rightfully so. But counter trend methodology is no less legitimate. From trend following point of view I agree with you, we don’t have sell signals yet. But we do have signs of reversal that warn us the uptrend is losing momentum. Reverse signals – as we know – don’t necessarily mean we will change direction immediately. They simply mean that the upward move has waned. Look at the spinning tops near the upper channel line on S&P, the bearish diversions, the light volume, etc. I can’t ignore this engine noise and just continue on driving. If I were holding from the bottom of the last up wave, this is where I would start cashing in and locking my profit and I suspect lots of money managers will do just that fueling some devastating selling.
With that said, I am short only in my swing account and only by a small pilot position. My stop is tight and I am not married to this market. If I get stopped out, so be it. This is trading, and my small losses are the cost of doing business. In my day trading account, I trade both sides of the market based on my day trading setups. Your point is very well taken and I – as always – appreciate your feedback.

Best of luck to all of us.

General Discussion · Swing Trading Ideas and methods
msg #96703
10/3/2010 12:42:57 PM

Some people like to call it speculation; I call it statistical analysis and forecast. Most of our indicators are pointing down now. Contrarian indicators also are in shape for an upward move. The market can be manipulated for a while but not forever. So, can we move up more? Well, America elected Bush Jr for a second term, so I guess anything can happen; but – at least statistically speaking – when this much clouds gather above our head, rain is more likely than a sudden sun shine. I am short this market via inverse ETFs. I will add more to my position once the neckline of the inverse head and shoulder pattern on S&P (daily) has been taken out.

General Discussion · Intraday Alerts
msg #93506
6/4/2010 1:31:43 PM

I am a little surprised by your AAPL call John. I am short for the day after the ninth candle (double top) on 5 min chart and since then I see no reason to cover. What kind of a play was it, swing or intraday scalp? Do you mind sharing your analysis?

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