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| Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions | |
| Village Elder msg #151518 |
3/27/2020 10:28:37 PM @Ratilal - I personally like to see no red candles in the last five days, but this is not a prerequisite for a better trade. Also like to be sure that I have a few days before the ROC(5,1) crosses back below 50 so just look at the price action and you can see if it will give you the time to make a profit. At an 83% win rate and an averaged return of 5.2% ($52,000 /100 trades = $520 per trade, or 5.2% averaged return per trade) the statistics would argue that any random 5 should be okay. |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions | |
| Village Elder msg #151483 |
3/26/2020 11:33:45 PM Note: neither of those were selected on the days you listed. Not sure how you can criticize a filter for picks it didn’t make. If you can show that these trades were in fact selected I’ll change my comment. |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions | |
| Village Elder msg #151479 |
3/26/2020 5:57:32 PM Not consistent? The stats clearly argue otherwise, but okay. Don't use it then. |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Short -Sell Filter | |
| Village Elder msg #151475 |
3/26/2020 4:30:37 PM OSTK - BTC at $4.97 for a gain of $234.00 (+2.93%). |
| General Discussion · Option feature application | |
| Village Elder msg #151472 |
3/26/2020 3:28:24 PM You can't. If you want to look at the number of positive hits for a given day and store this into a new variable I do not think it can be done. |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Village Elder Short -Sell Filter discussions | |
| Village Elder msg #151471 |
3/26/2020 3:26:36 PM You're welcome. In my opinion this is how I would love to see EVERY filter that is proposed here vetted. I was motivated by KSK8 and how he approached things, but felt that he was not fully clear on the details of his filter, and my personal choice was to avoid compounding as it tends to artificially inflate results. Too often I see filters that do not explain how they are to be used, or even if they are designed to be long or short in use. Almost never do I see clearly explained exit criteria. |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Short -Sell Filter | |
| Village Elder msg #151468 |
3/26/2020 12:57:27 PM OSTK trade is still open but will probably end of at a loss of ~$1,000 or so, but here is a review of the first 100 trades, each having been recorded here for transparency. Starting Equity: $50,000 Ending Equity: $102,350.35 ROI: $52,350.35 (104.7%) Total Trades: 100 Winning Trades: 83 Losing Trades: 17 Win Percentage: 83% Days since inception: 77 Doubling the initial equity in under 3 months, with no compounding. While this system did exceptionally well by almost any standard, what is more important is how the system was presented and validated - I tried to be clear in entry and exit rules as much as possible, recorded every trade I took and why I might have excluded a few potential trades, and traded it forward in front of the forum rather than simply claiming performance without proving anything. I'll close out the final trade tonight and want to thank those who have followed along with this thread. I would caution that this system has generated an enormous number of hits the past two days due to the bailout (preceded by the collapse), and these conditions are abnormal. Trade any system carefully (or don't trade and stay in cash) until things calm down and a new trend is established. |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Short -Sell Filter | |
| Village Elder msg #151454 |
3/25/2020 8:11:53 PM Okay - 133 candidates by the end of the day. Honestly thought this many would be impossible, but these are strange times. Trade updates (closing out trades 99 and 100 today): OSTK - STO 2,620 shares at the open price of $5.12 Holding until an exit signal is triggered. CRWD - STO 150 shares at the open price of $54.92 Trade closed at end of the day (exit rule 2). BTC at $55.78 for a loss of -$129.00 (-1.57%) APRN - STO 1,060 shares at the open price of $9.40 Trade closed at end of the day (exit rule 2). BTC at $3.93 for a loss of -$1,166.00 (-11.70%) |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Short -Sell Filter | |
| Village Elder msg #151442 |
3/25/2020 12:48:02 PM Okay - this is weird. At the moment there are 97 short filter candidates from this filter. Insane. |
| Stock Picks and Trading · Short -Sell Filter | |
| Village Elder msg #151431 |
3/24/2020 10:01:05 PM At this point there have been 98 closed trades, with 3 trades (APRN, OSTK, CRWD) still open. I am going to stop recording paper trades as I have hit my goal of 100 trades once these final three are closed. I'll post the final performance of the filter when all current trades are closed. Please feel free to use this as part of your personal trading if you want - my goal was to share this with the members of the forum and to document its performance in forward trading (versus backtesting, which I place less value in due to curve fitting in most algorithms). Best of luck to all going forward. |
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