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General Discussion · Fundamental Analysis
msg #152979
7/6/2020 11:25:32 AM


I've always wondered why so many self described "free thinkers" are addicted to insane conspiracy theories. I admire your efforts but you know they won't listen to logic or reason.

General Discussion · Fundamental Analysis
msg #152951
7/4/2020 10:06:48 PM


"Also, a certain segment of the population commits 8.5 times the serious crimes of the other segment and the media spins it to make it seem the other way nor do they ever mention these facts."
If you're talking about so called "white collar" crime and financial crimes like pension theft or wage theft, yeah, that's true. Those kinds of crimes are prosecuted far less often than more simple crimes.

"More people die from the flu than this strain which most of us already have had from when we were kids."
You were a kid in 2019? That's when this strain started. Also, what time period are you using to compare the death rates? Covid has killed more people in a shorter time span that the flu usually does.

"Where’s the lockdowns for all the other things that kill people like pharmaceuticals, car accidents, infections, smoking etc."
I don't know about "free thinkers" but smart thinkers understand that none of those things - except other infections - can be compared to a virus. You can't catch a car accident by being around someone who has been in one.

General Discussion · Days Ago annoyance and question
msg #152806
6/26/2020 5:56:18 PM

So it's trading days for the line in question as well as the Days Ago phrase. Thanks. That's good to know.

General Discussion · Days Ago annoyance and question
msg #152801
6/26/2020 3:33:10 PM

For some reason I started wondering if the Days Ago phrase was counting calendar days or trading days so I did a little test. I wrote a simple two line filter. I'll even make it clickable.

Fetcher[Show stocks where close is > 1
add column close 7 days ago {week}

I found that gives me the close from 7 trading days ago, not 7 calendar days. When I changed it to 5 days ago it showed me the closing price from one calendar week ago which is what I wanted. I'm annoyed because I never thought to ask this before. Now I'm wondering if I have to change other parts of some filters, like the comparative relative strength lines.

Would this set {rs1, relative strength(SPY,20} be looking at 20 calendar days or 20 trading days?

General Discussion · general
msg #152621
6/13/2020 10:29:44 AM

This gave me 156 results without any other code like "market is not..." or close or, well, anything but these three lines. It's just a starting point. You can change the number of days to whatever you want.

ema(8) crossed above ema(21) within the last 5 days
ema(8) has been increasing for the last 5 days
ema(21) has been increasing for the last 5 days

Filter Exchange · Will this filter make you wealthy?
msg #152587
6/9/2020 10:23:45 PM

Mansor, I had forgotten that I took that out. I have that and "market is not ETF" as part of a global filter. I didn't get anything when I ran it with the global on either.

General Discussion · ETF Ladder Results so far
msg #152586
6/9/2020 4:44:08 PM

Cheese, I always appreciate your feedback.

I don't use the Change number in scoring since it's part of the ROR. It's the first part of the ROR calculation; how much has the current price gone up or down compared to 28 days ago. I should have fixed the filter I posted. It's the original but I took the ROR out of the scoring, going only with the Relative Strength and the Sharpe.

There are definitely limitations to using the Relative Strength, especially in a bear market. I know a higher number doesn't mean the stock or ETF is going up if the indexes are falling. The stock might be falling too, just slower than the indexes. That's part of why I'm using four indexes for the RS number. I think averaging it out helps a bit but I don't know for sure.

Still, this filter has helped me make a few bucks so I'm happy with it.

General Discussion · ETF Ladder Results so far
msg #152585
6/9/2020 4:31:51 PM

Village Elder, that's good to know.

I was going off what Kevin said in this post:

"the higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the performance and the greater the profits for taking on additional risk." I understood that to mean the higher the ratio the riskier the investment. I'll have to do some research on that. I also found the post where SF added the Sharpe Ratio function. As I'm sure you know they keep adding things but not updating the manual. Makes it frustrating.

Filter Exchange · Will this filter make you wealthy?
msg #152577
6/9/2020 8:55:33 AM


Yes, exactly. I also took out the blank lines but those don't affect the filter when you run it.

Bollinger Width Oscillator(5,2) below -1 in last day
Lower Acceleration Band(5) dropped more than 3.5 Percent
Lower Keltner Band(5) dropped more then 3 percent
Day Position(0.5,1) below day position 2 days ago
do not draw day position (-1.00,5)
do not draw day position
and price between 0.01 and .99
IMI(4) below 11
/* shares outstanding above 100 */
/* add column shares outstanding */
add column market cap
draw rsi(14)
draw ema(100)
draw ema(200)
draw ema(300)

General Discussion · ETF Ladder Results so far
msg #152574
6/8/2020 11:45:46 PM

Back on 4/3/2020 I made a post about making an ETF Ladder, similar to a CD Ladder. If you don't know what that is go read this post ( because I've already explained it there. This post is about how it's worked out so far.

I have to admit that I didn't follow my own rules much of the time regarding how long I was going to hold them for. Looking back on those trades I can't remember why I sold them when I did. I think sometimes it was just because it had gone up and I wanted to take some profit when I could. Anyway, here they are in alphabetical order. Entry and exit prices are per share. Entry and exit trades were entered before market open, usually the day before if it was a Sunday or the night before on weekdays. These were market orders to be executed ASAP after the market opened.

EDIT: I tried spacing this out but it isn't showing up that way in the preview. I apologize for not knowing how to make it more readable.

Symbol Days Held Entry Exit P/L$ P/L%
EPI 7 19.12 19.78 0.66 3.45
FCG 5 6.35 6.42 0.08 1.18
GLDM 6 17.38 16.89 -0.49 -2.82
GWX 25 24.61 25.90 1.29 5.24
NANR 28 28.94 31.08 2.14 7.39
SLVP 7 12.92 12.21 -0.72 -5.55
XLRE 28 32.52 35.04 2.52 7.75
XOP 2 42.01 44.01 2.00 4.76
XOP 17 52.10 68.02 15.92 30.56
XRT 21 38.49 45.05 6.56 17.04

As you can see there were two losses out of 10 trades, giving me an 80% win rate. I'll take it. If you had bought just one share each (and yes, I did buy more than just one share each) you'd have risked a total of 274.44 for a return of 304.40, a gain of $29.96 or 10.92%. It's not an earth shattering return, but it's not bad. I think the key factor here is how long I hold each one. The best results came from just less than a three week hold but I know I can't ignore other factors like overall market direction along with others I can't think of at the moment.

Here's the code again. The Sharpe Ratio came from Kevin_in_GA, as well as the Relative Strength code (though I changed that to average four indexes). The top results are usually leveraged ETFs. I can't always tell by the title so I use Yahoo Finance to look up the symbol. I stay away from leveraged ETFs but if you like them then go for it. The NVI and PVI indicators in this filter are just for information. I'm not using them to help pick ETFs. I just like to see where the interest (and money) is. As always, if you want to use this filter feel free to make any changes to it that you want to make it work for you.

market is ETF

set {rateor1, close - close 28 days ago}
set {rateor2, rateor1 / close}
set {rateor, rateor2 * 100}

set {rs1, relative strength(^INX,28)} /* S&P 500 Index */
set {rs2, relative strength(^DJIA,28)} /* Dow Jones Industrial Average */
set {rs3, relative strength(^RUI,28)} /* Russell 1000 */
set {rs4, relative strength(^IXIC,28)} /* NASDAQ Composite */
set {rsavg1, rs1 + rs2}
set {rsavg2, rs3 + rs4}
set {rsavg3, rsavg1 + rsavg2}
set {rsavg, rsavg3 / 4}

/* SHARPE RATIO (the higher the ratio the riskier the investment) */
set {srclose, close 28 days ago}
set {srreturn, close - srclose}
set {srpercent, srreturn / srclose}
set {rfreturn, 0.0015417}
set {srperf, srpercent - rfreturn}
set {etfstdev, cstddev(close,28)}
set {etfvol, etfstdev / ma(28)}
set {sharpe, srperf / etfvol}

set {score1, rateor + rsavg}
set {score2, score1 + sharpe}
set {score, score2 / 3}

close is > 5

draw ema(21)
draw ema(63)
draw NVI on plot NVI
draw PVI on plot NVI

add column separator
add column rateor1 {change}
add column rateor {ror}
add column rsavg {rel str}
add column sharpe
add column score
sort column 10 descending
chart-display is weekly

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