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| General Discussion · Is this a crash or a correction? | |
| Cheese msg #145145 modified |
10/30/2018 9:27:58 AM Thank you, karennma. I don't know if this is your cup of tea or not. But, I got a better perspective by browsing English-language China news media, e.g. on Twitter, etc China is a very tightly controlled society. Semi-official media are actually government mouthpiece. Leaks are usually controlled permissible leaks. China views and strategies on tariffs and trade ware are impressively clear and clever compared to the incoherent rambling from 45. In a nutshell, according to my understanding or misunderstanding: * China wants to wait for mid-term elections outcomes * China drastically reduces imports of US soybeans by replacing much soybeans in cattle feed with other protein sources * China told US that Chinese can make and sustain bigger personal sacrifices longer than American people can * Rising US rates means China will get higher interest payments in higher valued USD. Many US pensions are unfunded, and rely on high asset values to fund current needs. Remember the past debacle with Orange County, CA when they took excessive risks to cope? * China reduces reliance on buying new issues iUS treasury bonds, and turns to quality Russian municipal bonds instead * I save the best for last: China has designed a clever way to deal with Trump tariffs: China hits more US products with China tariffs, thus hurting more of Trump base. But China also lowers their tariff rates so shield Chinese businesses and consumers from the financial impacts of Chinese tariffs, which are essentially Chinese taxes on Chinese. * China is working on trade agreements with the rest of the world. America may find itself facing powerful rivals with few allies left because 45 screwed too many old friends. In summary. China is ready for a long trade war. If you can read Chinese news in Chinese, you may get even better insights. I forgot this important tidbit: US trade deficit with.China still increased. China is buying less from America (in some cases for good US reasons because Chump didn't want to sell prized US techs) but US businesses and consumers still want to buy more from China with their higher USD. Chump tariffs and the Fed higher rates are burning the US financial candles on both ends. Chump needs to end the trade war and the Fed needs to slow the pace of higher rates to allow US growth to conti.ue at healthy rate. |
| General Discussion · Is this a crash or a correction? | |
| Cheese msg #145129 |
10/29/2018 3:49:56 PM Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors: "Regardless of the midterm elections' outcome, we're likely to see a negotiated deal, kind of outlines of a deal, between the U.S. and China by year's end. I think that will help give the markets confidence to move higher into next year," What will get both sides to the table is the fact that neither country can afford a protected trade war because they both have economies that are gradually slowing." The firm has $2.7 trillion in assets under management as of June 30, 2018. |
| General Discussion · Is this a crash or a correction? | |
| Cheese msg #145086 |
10/28/2018 2:44:31 PM @karennma Back in Feb-Mar 2018, Mac gave your cmadma7 suggestion a shout out. Mac seems to mention your cmadma7 suggestion again here in Oct 2018. https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Filter-Exchange/Markets-go-to-Hell-in-a-Handbasket-Symlist/142390 Your cmadma7 buy sell signals are quite good. Are you actually using them? Thanks. |
| General Discussion · Is this a crash or a correction? | |
| Cheese msg #145084 |
10/28/2018 11:55:57 AM @ karennma 10/28/2018 8:11:00 AM If MF is negative on FAANGS, the market will not be going back up ... =================================================== It is said that fear is more powerful than greed. Paid services tend to be alarmist in order to sell more subscriptions. Gerald Loeb (July 1899 – April 13, 1974) the renowned Wall Street trader and founding partner of E.F. Hutton & Co., liked to say "you don’t need analysts in a bull market, and you don’t want them in a bear market." As of October 25-26, 2018, for 2 weeks in three, US funds have seen net inflows (large caps, techs, semis, small caps, short-term treasuries) https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool http://lipperalpha.financial.thomsonreuters.com/2018/10/u-s-weekly-fundflows-insight-report-equity-etfs-take-in-net-new-money-despite-a-market-meltdown-during-the-week/ As of the end of Friday October 26, 2018 WSJ Money Flows showed Buying on Weakness for SP500 and many blue chip names http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html |
| General Discussion · Housing Market Decline | |
| Cheese msg #145065 |
10/26/2018 10:36:18 AM Thanks, karennma. Yes, residential investment tends to lead the economy. But here's a more complete view of the picture: Q3 GDP: Investment by Bill McBride on 10/26/2018 https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/10/q3-gdp-investment.html#DyRsvUrfyvXpOq7D.99 and here's a good summary of how to look at weak housing within context of firm broader macro trends Tim Duy's Fed Watch October 24, 2018 by duy@uoregon.edu Decision Time https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2018/10/24/decision-time/ |
| Filter Exchange · Victor's MA(3) | |
| Cheese msg #145043 |
10/24/2018 8:57:30 PM Thanks, snappyfrog. Stockfetcher has many good people. |
| Filter Exchange · Victor's MA(3) | |
| Cheese msg #145041 |
10/24/2018 7:58:46 PM @ron22 Please go to the page shown below for entry, exit signals and strategy suggested by BFreshour and riggs. It's also encouraging to see positive feedback by TheRumpledOne, https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Filter-Exchange/You-re-favorite-intraday-indicators/39216&isiframe= |
| General Discussion · Housing Market Decline | |
| Cheese msg #145014 |
10/23/2018 10:38:51 AM October 13, 2018 How some people capitalized on the mass exodus https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-13/sf-bay-area-realtor-caters-mass-exodus-out-region  |
| Filter Exchange · Victor's MA(3) | |
| Cheese msg #144989 |
10/18/2018 9:21:14 AM Thank you, snappyfrog FWIW, you can find my favorite filter here: https://www.stockfetcher.com/forums/Filter-Exchange/You-re-favorite-intraday-indicators/39216&isiframe= It has some of the best from BFreshour, TRO, and WSG riggs. |
| Filter Exchange · cci14 | ema100 | ema200 | |
| Cheese msg #144987 |
10/17/2018 11:00:02 AM Thanks, snappyfrog |
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