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Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139709
12/1/2017 12:59:17 PM

I got rid of my TEVA position too early ... it was around 11.20 when I bought my last shares ... up around 38% since then ...

At least I still hold some LEAPS in my TFSA that i bought when the price was down ...

Filter Exchange · Short DUST & NUGT
BarTune1
msg #139367
11/16/2017 10:51:13 PM

Well, I am not really expecting to update this trade daily as it should play out over weeks or months .... but it is up +$236.50 so far .... net directional amount at risk is only $201.70 ....

Sym Qty Close Cost Chg Cost Mkt Val Gain/Loss

DUST -1300 $26.73 $26.783 -$0.05 -$34,749.00 -$34,817.90 +$68.90

NUGT -1200 $29.02 $29.183 -$0.16 -$34,824.00 -$35,019.60 +$195.60

-$69,573.00 -$69,837.50 +$264.50


Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139321
11/15/2017 5:22:50 PM

exited 2000 shares of teva at the close @ 12.60; still short a 12.50 put that i sold for $1.30

bought the first 1000 at 13.08, a little too early but got the other shares around 11.25 ...

i think this goes alot higher but took my normal exit given the run-up today ...

Filter Exchange · Short DUST & NUGT
BarTune1
msg #139314
11/15/2017 1:14:31 PM

For anyone interested in shorting leveraged ETF pairs, I just put on the following trade: short 1200 shares of DUST at $26.783 and 1300 shares NUGT at $29.183 ...

We can see how this turns out although it may take some time for the pair to deteriorate in value ... if and when it shows a decent profit ... I'll probably just take the money and run ... would likely just be best to leave the trade on for a longer period however ...

Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139288
11/14/2017 10:32:05 PM

lol Greg .... I usually get to Royal Oak several times each year ... there is a decent stand up comedy club there & tons of restaurants nearby ...

Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139283
11/14/2017 8:33:23 PM

Hopefully you are in one of the nicer suburbs .... there are some pretty rough areas downtown!

Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139279
11/14/2017 5:34:41 PM

@mahkoh

you are correct ... short term you don't often see much decay ... my only point is that you will invariably see decay over time ... and that can provide quite a profitable edge ...

i guess i'm just kicking myself because i was short about $23K of both DUST and NUGT at the beginning of the year and closed out the position when i was up around $2,300 ... had i held on like my intention ... i would have been up around $10,300 on the short of DUST and around $1,000 on the NUGT short ... all with minimal directional risk ... i've traded this strategy several times and made money each time but its like watching paint dry at times .... maybe its time to get into it again ...


Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139276
11/14/2017 3:30:00 PM

@mahkoh

try using this to see the net decay since the beginning of the year ....

symlist(nugt,dust)
and date offset is 220

you can add other triple leveraged pairs

Decay is quite pronounced and exists for a number of structural reasons. Perhaps one of the biggest factors is that most ETFs get their exposure from equity swap agreements with large financial institutions (FIs). The FIs typically charge a hefty fee (built in as a spread) so the ETF never fully realizes the 3% move either way. The compounding effect really adds up. You'd be wise to short both etfs most of the time, if you could.

Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139271
11/14/2017 1:50:35 PM

Sometimes when I can't borrow or make a trade otherwise, I have to synthetically short by selling in-the-money calls which are available on LABD. There doesn't appear to be much premium however. Of course you risk being assigned. Assignment is not fatal however, as you only have to worry about a potential buy-in once you are short the shares on the assignment. I use TD and the strange thing is - they rarely force a buy in - so you are usually left short the securities they told you that you can't borrow or short.

I would normally look first to short the overpriced 3X ETF. However, in this case, I'm only looking for a short term mean reversion trade. So I'm not overly concerned with potential inefficiencies associated with 3X leveraged etfs and am fine with LABU.

Stock Picks and Trading · Intraday Alerts
BarTune1
msg #139267
11/14/2017 1:03:19 PM

I have a pretty reliable mean reversion filter screaming buy on labu ...currently at $63.75

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