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Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139952
12/9/2017 11:47:17 AM

That's a very good observation. Looking at the beaten down chart though, I'm thinking they're thinking it's time to get back into the game. StrataSearch keeps crashing on me the past two weeks. Have you tried using it lately?

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139946
12/8/2017 8:39:52 PM

That's a nice in the money trade on LKQ. Its relative volume to its 90-day avg was 2.67 & a near perfect 99% of Calls vs Puts when it comes to total options volume. Not to mention $1.68 million bet is massive for this stock.

Spotlight Big Options Volume Trade of the Day!

EEM appears to have bottomed as someone paid $3.6 million in premium when they bought 27,752 contracts of the 3/16/18 46 Calls for $1.31 per contract. Break even is $47.31 which is still far below resistance near $48.

Its 52 week R-Square is .96 which means a relentless uptrend. Barring an unforeseen lengthy market meltdown, this bet should be very doable given the 3 months time frame.

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139914
12/7/2017 11:05:27 PM

Spotlight Big Options Volume Trade of the Day!
AAPL has one of the most liquid options stocks and a million dollar bet occurs pretty frequently. Still, it doesn't hurt to take notice when an investor spends $400K on a weekly bet. This was a purchase of 2000 contracts of the 12/15 170 Call at $2.00 per contract. Break even is $172. Stock closed at $169.32 so it needs to gain a minimum of 1.78%, a very doable feat for AAPL.

Chart shows it has gone sideways for the past 7 trading days and the Calls vs Puts volume at this strike today was 28K-8K. Its overall options Calls vs Puts volume was 64%-36%. I would like to see a minimum of 70%, but I've been pretty successful in previous AAPL piggy back trades.

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139876
12/6/2017 10:53:26 PM

Mahkoh,
Glad you like the site. This is THE site I check throughout the day. It gives so much info for free! Hopefully the creators don't realize this & cut it down. You may want to also look under Auto Execution, IntermarketSweep & Stopped IM.

MU is a beast of a stock and you're right it's at support so big players are backing up the truck. It reports earnings in 2 weeks so IV should start to rise. Its historical two weeks run up to earnings over the past 2 years is a 75% winning rate with an avg gain of 4.05%. Its TOTAL Calls vs Puts volume today is 73%-27%.

INTC massive $9 million bet it interesting since it's at the Mid. Its Total Calls vs Puts volume today was only 43-57 so for today anyways, investors are thinking it's going to fill the gap from 10/26. I'd stay away from it for the time being.

Here's what I would look at:
1) GM relative volume to its 90-day avg was 8X today with total Calls pct at 98%!
2) WMT rel vol 5.50, Calls pct 97%
3) CME 12.42 & 96%




Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139847
12/5/2017 11:16:04 PM

It's under the tab "Screeners" at the top menu line, then "Option Trades." My personal preference for the filter categories: Trade Filter (Over 500), Trade Price (Over .25), Stock Type (Common), Side (Ask & Above). To be on the safe side that these are open positions choose Trade Qty vs Open Int (Qty > OI). Choosing this will drop the results dramatically BUT the probabilities are much higher since this is a new open position.

HTH

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139845
12/5/2017 9:38:00 PM

Spotlight Trade of the Day!
An investor thinks something wicked this way comes as they bought $10 million in QQQ premiums of the 6/15/18 134 Puts at $2.57. This is one of the largest straight up options trades I've seen. Break even is $131.43 so QQQ needs to drop 13.99% from now until expiration. If true, bulls will not be enjoying the Year of the Dog.

Remaining 4 big options plays today:

Legend: Premium, Symbol, Contracts, Expiration Date/Strike/Type, Trade Price

1) $2,608,900, QQQ, 2752, 9/21/18 154 Put, $9.48
2) $2,250,000, XRT, 22,500, 12/29/17 44 Call, $1.00
3) $1,732,730, SPY, 2775, 2/16/18 265 Put, $4.59
4) $1,499,400, XLF, 35,700, 12/29/17 28 Call, $0.42

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139839
12/5/2017 7:28:37 PM

Mahkoh is correct. Livevol is popular in determining if it's a Buy or Sell but they're not cheap. Marketchameleon offers the same data for free, albeit with a 15-min delay. They offer a subscription base, but since I'm not a day trader, I don't have a need to pounce on the trade right away.

If a purchase is at the Ask or Above, then it's a buy. Better yet, if volume exceeds Open Interest, then a new position has been established. If it's at the Bid or below then the option is sold. This is also valuable since it's giving you a hint that the big players think a stock can no longer go above a price (Selling a Call) or below a price (Selling a Put).

Beginning option players should only buy options at least 3 months in advance to give you more time if the market goes against you. If you piggy back on big premium trades of $1 million or more, you'd be surprised how fast your account can grow as these plays have an 80% accuracy. I'd like these plays and blocks of 3000 or more at support, especially on beaten down stocks. These almost have a 100% accuracy as you only need the stock to move 2-3% in order for your option price to double.

Caveat: In a sideways, fade every pop market like we've experienced lately, patience is the key! The big players can afford to have the option price drop because they have plenty of ammo left to average down.The average Joe won't have such luxury so you need to WAIT for SPY to start going up again. Keep an Excel log of all the big buys and when you see the market is back to an uptrend, buy hand over fist on those now cheap Calls!

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #139807
12/5/2017 12:09:06 AM

This is my 10th year trading options. I've learned to follow the money or in this case big options blocks, especially at the Ask or above. Unusual options volume work too. It's rare that a bet of over $1 million will go against you. Highest probabilities is if you can find a massive block buy at support. That's when the big boys and girls think the selling is basically done.

Legend: Symbol, Contracts, Expiration, Strike, Type, Trade Price, Premium

12/4/17
1) BAC, 49,365, 1/19/18 30 Call, $0.58, $2,863,170
2) V, 3850, 2/16/18 110 Call, $3.50, $1,347,500
3) V, 3137, 2/16/18 110 Call, $4.05, $1,270,490
4) KMX, 3933, 1/19/18 72.50 Call, $2.40, $943,920
5) CELG, 931, 3/16/18 100 Call, $9.00, $837,900

Stock Picks and Trading · StrataSearch --- Mind Blown!
15minoffame
msg #139009
11/1/2017 4:22:53 PM

I consider myself a little above average intelligence but when it comes to SS logic, it's like me trying to learn how to read music in high school all over again. It's Greek to me! Sigh

Stock Picks and Trading · StrataSearch --- Mind Blown!
15minoffame
msg #138965
10/29/2017 8:36:01 PM

Kevin,
I'm not understanding the logic behind SS. I wish they provide more examples like SF. I thought I covered all the bases with monthly and 36?

period (monthly, rsq(close, 36))


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