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Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140306
12/21/2017 11:05:21 PM

Big Option Play of the Day!

This is more like filed under unusual options volume. Canada Goose (Goos) manufactures high end outer winter wear such as Parkas. Their parkas, while legendary ain't cheap as they go for $1000! Just like their clothing that keeps you warm & cozy, their stock has done the same for their investors of late.

With winter beginning today, an investor thinks the stock is just heating up. They spent nearly $272K on 1875 of the 1/19/18 28 Calls for $1.45. That big purchase helped the stock achieve a relative volume ten times its 90 day average.

Break even is $29.45 which after a big day it's nearly there. The option is already at $2.35 giving the investor a 62% return. No doubt, like John Paul, this investor can afford one or two of the Parkas!

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140298
12/21/2017 2:55:49 PM

Good eyes Mahkoh!
TWX trade is textbook Buy-Write to finance the trade. The key is the $15.6 million of the 7/20/18 95 Calls for $5.20. Break even is $100.20. The investor is telling you that this is a no brainer, but they don't think it will go above $105 as they sold the Calls. This trade is screaming for you to buy the 7/20/18 100 Calls, currently going for $2.96.

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140292
12/21/2017 12:15:10 PM

A lot of the big buys are based on their algo programs sensing a breakout/support. Some based on "inside" info about impending buyouts/earnings. Like I've mentioned before, if you can find a massive block of options at support, it's almost a 100% win. This is their way of backing up the truck!

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140278
12/20/2017 10:53:18 PM

Big Option Play of the Day!

Two days ago I mentioned a nearly $11 million buy of the LOW 7/20/18 80 Calls for $10.80. The option closed today at $13, a 20% gain in only two days. Not content with this massive buy, today saw even a bigger buy! This time it's $12.2 million! Not sure if it's the same investor but this buy was for the same 7/20/18 80 Calls for $12.20.

I don't remember the last time I saw two $10 million buys in the same week in a non tech stock. This is truly almost unheard of. Break even is $92.20. LOW closed at $90.19 so it's almost already in the money. The monthly chart looks tasty. It's breaking out and just had a bullish MACD X-Over. The last such cross over in Oct 2014 saw the price move from $57.20 to a high of $76.25, a gargantuan 33.3% return! Trust me when I tell you this is the nearest certain profit trades you're ever going to see. Big boys and girls will not allow themselves to lose on one $10 million bet, much less two!!!



Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140276
12/20/2017 10:36:11 PM

lavapit315
15 posts
msg #140271
- Remove message
modified 12/20/2017 5:20:29 PM

LOW just keeps going. Looks like another big buy today too.

What's up with AGN? Bullish or bearish?

I'm not too versed on Butterfly or Iron Condor so I'm not sure.

shillllihs
3,557 posts
msg #140272
- Remove message 12/20/2017 6:24:57 PM

This is the only entertaining thread out here. My knowledge on options is limited but growing slowly. Thanks Shillllihs!

Some questions are, what do you estimate the odds are of chasing one of these whales? A premium bet of over $1-5 million is 80% accuracy. Over $5 million is above 90.

How long before expiration would you bail? It depends on your risk appetite. I go for 100% when it's 3 or more months out.

What are you assuming to make, 50-150%? 3 and 4 baggers don't seem likely right? A 3-4 bagger is possible when there's a feeding frenzy or having enough time out.

Should I be placing limit orders to get a better price? I ALWAYS place a limit order, many times below the bid because EVERY stock has an intraday pullback.

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140243
12/19/2017 10:34:14 PM

Big Option Volume Trade of the Day!

It's horrible for your arteries, but one of my favorite burgers is the Baconator at Wendy's. Someone thought the same as they spent $114,375 when they bought 4575 of the 1/19/18 17 Calls for .25. This "big" buy followed a much bigger buy last month of 10,000 2/14/18 14 Calls for $1.10. Today's relative volume to its 90-day average was 8.21 so this should give a hint of what is coming down the pipeline.

Break even is 17.25 which is 6.71% away from today's close of $16.40. It broke resistance today and weekly MACD is having a bullish cross over so the momentum is clearly up. The question is can it run this much in a month's time?



Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140242
12/19/2017 7:58:18 PM

@mahkoh

Break even on the CME 6/15/18 140 Puts is $134.40 which on the weekly chart is Oct support and monthly is 8 EMA. Interesting on this very aggressive trade.

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140240
12/19/2017 5:23:39 PM

@lavapit315

HLF, looks like that Spread was sold. Daily chart looks choppy, but 80 strike is resistance area.

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140225
12/19/2017 12:22:06 PM

@lavapit315

Great job on the LOW trade. I'll take 66% any day!

Stock Picks and Trading · Follow The Money (Options)
15minoffame
msg #140209
12/18/2017 10:21:54 PM

Big Option Play of the Day!

A near $11 million trade in any stock will have everyone's attention, but when it's for a hardware stock such as LOW, then you best better take note. LOW has been the other sibling to HD when it comes to this type of stock as HD's uptrend has been constant since 2010.

One investor think it's about time LOW get the spotlight as they snapped up 10,000 contracts of the 7/20/18 80 Calls at $10.80. Unlike HD, LOW tends to pullback 2-3 months after similar number of months up. If pattern holds true, it's now due for a pullback, but first quarter earnings is coming up in late February. Break even is $90.80, which is only 3.84% from today's closing price of $87.44. Seasonality show strong February & March so this investor should be able to sell well before expiration for a tidy profit if earnings are strong.



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