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4,741 posts
msg #73629
Ignore Eman93
4/17/2009 2:51:07 PM

FAS zig zag patttern?

12,034 posts
msg #73630
Ignore johnpaulca
4/17/2009 2:55:07 PM

- Edit message
modified 3/19/2009 4:44:34 PM

I think energy stocks have turned the corner. I am looking for people on this board to submit their favorite energy plays...we will try to get in before Cramer and followers starts his ranting. We can make this board more dynamic if we have more participation...thanks everyone.
I will post my charts later.

My plays are:
UPL: $39.68
CHK: $17.97
RIG: $61.57
VLO: $19.43
Update: 4-9-09

UPL: $40.24
CHK: $20.70
RIG: $66.82
VLO: $21.00
update: 4-17-09

UPL: $40.72
RIG: $68.73

1,373 posts
msg #73631
Ignore EWZuber
4/17/2009 3:09:40 PM

SOLR is the strongest RE stock.

1,373 posts
msg #73632
Ignore EWZuber
4/17/2009 3:20:21 PM

EGHT mayy be breaking higher.

4,741 posts
msg #73637
Ignore Eman93
4/17/2009 9:07:46 PM

I think Nat Gas companys...but I dont see any sign of recovery.... for energy companys to make money there need to be a pick up in industrial production, they are still contracting. I had a professor that use to sware by the cardboard box orders, they will sign of improvemet

Economist Simon Johnson, Predicts When Recession Will End
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
PAUL KANGAS: The recession is now entering its 16th month and many investors are anxious to know when things will turn around. Economists are watching a wide array of statistics for clues and as Erika Miller explains, some are fairly unusual.

ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Call it the cupcake indicator. When demand picks up for pricey gourmet treats, analysts say it usually reflects economic optimism. Ditto for lattes. Shares of Starbucks began to decline in late 2006, about the time economists started talking about the threat of recession. Transportation stocks also typically rally in the early stages of an economic recovery. However, analyst Dan Ortwerth isn't seeing that yet.

DAN ORTWERTH, TRANSPORTATION ANALYST, EDWARD JONES: We are still seeing a lot of weakness -- in fact, broad-based weakness. If I take my cue from the earnings results that FedEx recently put out and some of the other things that I'm seeing from the rail sector, we really still have a long way to go, I think, before this economy turns around.

MILLER: Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was known for watching the cardboard box business, because nearly all merchandise is shipped that way. There's also the obscure Baltic dry index, which tracks the cost of shipping raw materials by sea. It is down 87 percent since last summer. But most economists are watching more conventional stuff, like housing data. Bank of America's Drew Matus is waiting for a drop in the supply of unsold homes.

DREW MATUS, SR. ECONOMIST, BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH: One of the key things, obviously, holding back the economy is the housing market. And if the housing market stabilizes and begins to eat through some of those inventories, it would be a sign that home price stabilization is going to follow soon thereafter.

MILLER: You know the labor market is coming back when more temp workers are hired and full-time employees work more hours. Larry Kantor of Barclays Capital says consumer demand will have to pick up before that.

LARRY KANTOR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL: Real consumer spending in the U.S. is up from extremely low levels, really since the end of last year. So I would say that's the big key indicator, the consumer spending is not falling sharply anymore.

MILLER: There's one thing all these indicators have in common -- none are signaling recovery. However, many economists are hoping to see those signs sometime in the second half of the year. Erika Miller, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

SUSIE GHARIB: How will we know when the recession is over? Simon Johnson has experience spotting economic turnarounds. As a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, he spent a lot of time patching up economies damaged by financial bubbles. Earlier today, Darren Gersh asked Johnson whether he thinks the U.S. economy is bottoming out.

SIMON JOHNSON, SR. FELLOW, PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS: I think we may be bottoming out. I actually don't think the decline is going to be a great depression proportions. But I think we're going to go down and stay down and I think we're talking about an L shape. I do think that also if we don't deal with the banking system, if we don't prevent further collapses, that could be quite serious in this country. And I do worry about the situation outside the United States. And I think in Europe in particular there are some really serious vulnerabilities, but they're only just now beginning to address and everything that happens over there, finance and the real economy affects us and it bounces back and forth between the two places.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: You had written in the "Atlantic" that you thought that the great depression scenario could not be taken off the table, in fact a worse than great depression scenario. There are a lot of people I've talked to have said that's off the table. Why do you think that it's still a plausible outcome?

JOHNSON: Well I think nothing's off the table and we should have learned that by now in this crisis. All kinds of things previously were unthinkable have come to pass. That's my number one premise. Don't rule out anything. And I think the great depression scenario is not my baseline view, but it's my down side scenario. It is when things continue to go bad outside the U.S. , those come back to the U.S. for example or if we really can't handle the political power of our financial sector which I think has become incredibly dangerous. They have to take some losses, people who run those banks and people who invest in those banks. If we can't figure out how to have them take those losses, it's going to come back to the taxpayer. A lot of times these sorts of problems come through as runaway inflation for example. So you either get the great depression or you get runaway inflation or some combination of those.

GERSH: You've been making this argument that it was the financial oligarchs who created this problem and are now standing in the way of the solution. Explain that. That sounds very much like a populist argument.

JOHNSON: Well it has some dimensions of populism, I'll agree. I'm not a populist per se myself. I'm a very centrist kind of character. I was chief economist of the IMF. They ask you on the entrance exam for that position how populist you are. So you can be pretty sure. I'm very centrist. But I think you've got to recognize what's happened to our financial sector. It started out in 1980, one sector among many and now it's reached the point where it really dominates the economy and it's clearly shown its ability to take risks that jeopardize the entire financial system and the health of our economy and the world economy. And we know also that it's controlled by this disproportionate influence within that sector is exercised by relatively few banks and people heading those banks. We know they're deeply entwined with Congress. We know they have a history of very strong relationships with the administration. So all of this, if you would,, If you were walking into another country where you didn't have emotional ties. It wasn't your country and you look around at the structure we have, you'd say wow, these guys really has an oligarchy.

GERSH: So the solution you say is to break it up.

JOHNSON: Well realistically, oligarchies are very hard to get rid of and I think what you should do in this case is try to break up the big banks, try to set some parts of the oligarchy against some other parts, use the private equity and the hedge funds for example to buy up chunks but not the whole bank, not all of the big banks because then they would become new mega oligarchs. You don't want that, but have them break up, use them as a way to break up the smaller banks, trade (ph) something more competitive. I think you need to put a big tax on size so that if you want to be large relative to the financial system, relative to the economy, you pay a big tax, a big charge against your (INAUDIBLE) .

GERSH: So not to say anything is populist because it sounds like in some places you're saying that they're right, that big powerful people are too big and powerful and that they're getting in the way of the solution and that's going to make it painful for the rest of us. Isn't that basically what you're saying?

JOHNSON: That's exactly what I'm saying. And I think at the end of the 19th century there was a similar moment when populism and sensible economics actually coincided and this was the antitrust movement. Teddy Roosevelt is the personification of much of that but it was much broader and the view was taken by populist and also by very mainstream people that the industrial conglomerate, the trusts had become too big and too powerful. I think we need a modernization of our antitrust thinking, antitrust type legislation to deal with the issue of too much power, political power in the banking system.

GERSH: Simon Johnson, thank you very much for your time. I appreciate it.

4,741 posts
msg #73638
Ignore Eman93
4/17/2009 9:50:45 PM

Its cool what you can find on the internets---looks like we should go long snackfoods...........

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4,741 posts
msg #73644
Ignore Eman93
4/18/2009 10:14:58 PM

I am not trying to say that energy stocks are not oversold at this point....they are.

If we are just looking for an oversold swing play with little mo-mo to the upside, a swing trade for 1 to few weeks.

Ultra Petroleum Corp. $ 40.79
UPL 0.63

Short Interest (Shares Short) 5,519,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 2.8
Short Percent of Float 4.05 %
Short Interest - Prior 4,507,600
Short % Increase / Decrease 22.44 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -6

% From 52-Wk High ($ 102.81 ) -152.05 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 28.85 ) 29.27 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 39.01 ) 4.36 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 37.14 ) 8.95 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -53.00 %

Shares Float 136,290,000
Total Shares Outstanding 150,502,296
% Owned by Insiders 3.33 %
% Owned by Institutions 70.10 %
Market Cap. $ 6,138,988,654
Trading Volume - Today 1,672,766
Trading Volume - Average 1,974,300
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 84.73 %
Earnings Per Share 2.65
PE Ratio 15.40
Record Date 2009-AprilA

Sector Basic Materials
Industry Independent Oil & Gas
Exchange NY

Chesapeake Energy Corp. $ 21.63
CHK 0.69

Short Interest (Shares Short) 29,731,400
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.7
Short Percent of Float 5.22 %
Short Interest - Prior 28,151,900
Short % Increase / Decrease 5.61 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -5

% From 52-Wk High ($ 74.00 ) -242.12 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 9.84 ) 54.51 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 18.31 ) 15.35 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 17.45 ) 19.33 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -59.00 %

Shares Float 569,440,000
Total Shares Outstanding 624,477,656
% Owned by Insiders 4.19 %
% Owned by Institutions 67.90 %
Market Cap. $ 13,507,451,699
Trading Volume - Today 15,980,218
Trading Volume - Average 17,799,900
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 89.78 %
Earnings Per Share 1.14
PE Ratio 19.00
Record Date 2009-AprilA

Sector Basic Materials
Industry Independent Oil & Gas
Exchange NY

Transocean Ltd. $ 68.97
RIG 2.14

Short Interest (Shares Short) 10,487,700
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.4
Short Percent of Float 3.30 %
Short Interest - Prior 9,659,600
Short % Increase / Decrease 8.57 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -3

% From 52-Wk High ($ 163.00 ) -136.33 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 41.95 ) 39.18 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 62.47 ) 9.42 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 59.90 ) 13.15 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -56.30 %

Shares Float 318,170,000
Total Shares Outstanding 319,660,304
% Owned by Insiders 0.14 %
% Owned by Institutions 40.60 %
Market Cap. $ 22,046,971,167
Trading Volume - Today 6,303,702
Trading Volume - Average 7,469,600
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 84.39 %
Earnings Per Share 13.09
PE Ratio 5.30
Record Date 2009-AprilA

Sector Basic Materials
Industry Oil & Gas Drilling Exploration
Exchange NY

Valero Energy Corp. $ 21.72
VLO 0.18

Short Interest (Shares Short) 8,128,800
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.7
Short Percent of Float 1.59 %
Short Interest - Prior 10,015,400
Short % Increase / Decrease -18.84 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -1

% From 52-Wk High ($ 55.00 ) -153.22 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 13.94 ) 35.82 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 20.47 ) 5.76 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 18.72 ) 13.81 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -58.30 %

Shares Float 512,670,000
Total Shares Outstanding 516,308,274
% Owned by Insiders 0.27 %
% Owned by Institutions 73.20 %
Market Cap. $ 11,214,215,711
Trading Volume - Today 9,520,188
Trading Volume - Average 11,842,600
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 80.39 %
Earnings Per Share -2.16
PE Ratio
Record Date 2009-AprilA

Sector Basic Materials
Industry Oil & Gas Refining Marketing
Exchange NY

A few picks of mine........

Peabody Energy Corp. $ 25.18
BTU -0.22

Short Interest (Shares Short) 8,796,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.0
Short Percent of Float 3.33 %
Short Interest - Prior 9,052,500
Short % Increase / Decrease -2.83 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -2

% From 52-Wk High ($ 88.69 ) -252.22 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 16.00 ) 36.46 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 26.57 ) -5.52 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 25.70 ) -2.07 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -62.10 %

Shares Float 264,090,000
Total Shares Outstanding 267,362,965
% Owned by Insiders 0.25 %
% Owned by Institutions 81.10 %
Market Cap. $ 6,732,199,459
Trading Volume - Today 7,855,243
Trading Volume - Average 8,738,400
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 89.89 %
Earnings Per Share 3.51
PE Ratio 7.20
Record Date 2009-AprilA

Sector Basic Materials
Industry Industrial Metals & Minerals
Exchange NY

Claymore Mac Global Solar Energy Index Etf $ 7.90
TAN -0.22

Short Interest (Shares Short) 349,200
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.7
Short Percent of Float %
Short Interest - Prior 223,400
Short % Increase / Decrease 56.31 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™

% From 52-Wk High ($ 30.79 ) -289.75 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 4.65 ) 41.11 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 8.35 ) -5.70 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 6.12 ) 22.53 %
Price % Change (52-Week) %

Shares Float
Total Shares Outstanding 16,320,000
% Owned by Insiders %
% Owned by Institutions %
Market Cap. $ 128,928,000
Trading Volume - Today 568,896
Trading Volume - Average 489,500
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 116.22 %
Earnings Per Share
PE Ratio
Record Date 2009-AprilA

Exchange NY

4,741 posts
msg #73665
Ignore Eman93
4/19/2009 12:40:54 PM

Take a look at this chart and the shorts are covering

Hawk Corp. $ 12.05
HWK 0.13

Short Interest (Shares Short) 15,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.2
Short Percent of Float 0.27 %
Short Interest - Prior 25,900
Short % Increase / Decrease -39.77 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -0

% From 52-Wk High ($ 25.63 ) -112.70 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 8.50 ) 29.46 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 14.41 ) -19.59 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 11.68 ) 3.07 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -32.50 %

Shares Float 5,830,000
Total Shares Outstanding 8,689,109
% Owned by Insiders 46.68 %
% Owned by Institutions 48.20 %
Market Cap. $ 104,703,763
Trading Volume - Today 74,773
Trading Volume - Average 71,000
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 105.31 %
Earnings Per Share 2.21
PE Ratio 5.50
Record Date 2009-AprilA

Sector Industrial Goods
Industry Aerospace/Defense Products & Services
Exchange AMX

12,034 posts
msg #73669
Ignore johnpaulca
4/19/2009 3:18:07 PM

HAWK: Love this chart, pullback for a nice entry in the Booya zone.

12,034 posts
msg #73670
Ignore johnpaulca
4/19/2009 3:19:54 PM

BTU...entry would be about $22

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