StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Gossett Trading & Mentoring - 2/12/22 - Review of last week's stock trades & potential stock trade set ups for the upcoming week<< 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 >>Post Follow-up
davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158924
Ignore davesaint86
4/3/2022 2:09:24 PM

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OMlgmbU7/

Here was a valid V2 signal that the V2 SF filter picked up. Play with the offsets on both the V1 and V2 filters I posted. The results are pretty good for the ones that are valid and adhere to the rules.

nibor100
938 posts
msg #158928
Ignore nibor100
4/5/2022 3:29:26 AM

@davesaint86,

Gossett finally replied to my email and confirmed what you wrote, in that he uses the 20 day SMA for his Keltner channel settings in Trade Navigator and chooses to only show the 20 day EMA on his charts. His full reply is below.

Ed S.

"Hi Ed,

Thank you for your e-mail.
I have answered your questions below in blue:

1. On the Chart Indicators video at minute 17:45 you indicated that you base all of your Keltner Channels off of the 20day Exponential Moving Average yet it appears that on charts such as the one for JO at min 51:20 of the latest Weekend Edition that you are no longer using the 20 day EMA as your Keltner channel basis?

I may have just misspoke – The settings for the Keltner Channels is based on the 20 SMA – This is just a preference for me – There are some charting platforms that do no offer the ability to use the SMA so in that case EMA is totally fine.

a. I believe that when the 20day EMA is the basis for drawing Keltner Channel Bands that it would always be at the center of the nearest channels/bands, which in your videos are the green lines defining your Value Zone. Yet on the chart of JO, there is a point back in recent history where the 20day EMA actually crosses over and out of the Value Zone!

So I use the 20 SMA for the input of my Keltner channels, however, I use a 20 EMA for my moving average on my charts – If I used a 20 SMA for the moving average on my chart then yes it would be exactly in the middle of the green Keltner channel lines.

2. Trying to figure out what you were actually using as the basis for the Keltner Channels on your video charts I determined that the Upper and Lower Keltner Band values displayed at the top of your chart consist of the 1 ATR value being added to a 20day moving average of the Typical Price (High+Low+Close)/3. Is that correct?

Not sure on how the math is expressed in the code on this Ed.

a. I don't have Trade Navigator and apparently they don't offer limited day trials so I couldn't test this myself but I did find their Indicators User Manual PDF online and it states that the default Keltner Channels, around page 40, are based on the original method of calculation as determined by Keltner in 1960, which was based on the average of typical prices.

I didn’t know that but it sounds good.

b. Apparently, Trade Navigator has a "Custom Keltner Channel" option where the user can change the moving avg basis and also the basis for the channel calculations.

Yes you can change the inputs on the Keltner channels in Trade Navigator.

So Ed to sum up. I use a 20 EMA setting for the input on the Keltner Channels and I use a 20 EMA for the actual moving average on my charts.

I hope that I answered your questions. If you have any more please just let me know.
Thank you and have a great upcoming week!
Gregg’

nibor100
938 posts
msg #158948
Ignore nibor100
4/8/2022 3:51:30 AM

@davesaint86,

Is your one on one course over? Did you graduate with honors :)

Have you compared his scanner, that you now have access to, against your SF filter for V1s, to see if they return the same group of stocks?

Thanks,
Ed S.

davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158950
Ignore davesaint86
modified
4/8/2022 3:23:15 PM

It was supposed to be over. He taught everything that is in this video below.

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=nmP9Elib1N4&list=PLkb1P7LeRBLLH1hPwxGAKWLQwjjwAyOeO&index=6

Screenshot of Scanner
https://www.tradingview.com/x/J8KeqVoB/

He wants to give me one more lesson on ICT. (No extra cost). I'm supposed to be granted access to the scanner and to Steve Burns trading room once the training is done. He showed me the scanner and it's better than what I created in SF. Tuesday, he taught me Double Bottoms Bullish Divergence and vice-versa. I took the Home Depot trade at the close yesterday since it had this pattern at the time. You can see what it did today.

@davesaint86,

Is your one on one course over? Did you graduate with honors :)

Have you compared his scanner, that you now have access to, against your SF filter for V1s, to see if they return the same group of stocks?

Thanks,
Ed S.

davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158997
Ignore davesaint86
modified
4/24/2022 2:37:24 PM

Update

- The course ended
- I did receive access to the scanner (The scanner is okay. However, on April 15th in should have flagged MA as a buy over the MA(200). It did not so I notified the developer of the scanner and he said he would check into it.). I do not know if it is fixed or not.

What I like
-Like the variety of strategies especially V1/V2s
-Like the risk management piece
-Trading room

What I'm doing different
-Do not make trades unless you analyze the overall market for risk-on/risk off conditions. Just because you get a buy signal for one of strategies does not mean you should take the trade. Buying GOOGL on Friday (over the RSI 30 level) in my opinion is not a high probability long trade due to VIX being elevated and the broad market being risk-off.



Is your one on one course over? Did you graduate with honors :)

Have you compared his scanner, that you now have access to, against your SF filter for V1s, to see if they return the same group of stocks?

Thanks,
Ed S.

nibor100
938 posts
msg #159012
Ignore nibor100
4/28/2022 4:09:43 PM

@davesaint86,

I agree with your "What I'm doing different" approach as I think he trades a bit too much unless he's doing so to keep advertising his One on One course.

I've sent him another email with questions as shown below:
If he answers those I'll be sending him some more as the more I watch his weekly videos the more questions come to mind.

"Hey Gregg,

Thanks for you reply and I do have more questions and will probably continue to have more in the future :)

1. I noticed on the latest weekly video in your discussion of your monthly LUV trade you didn't mention the upcoming earnings date, did you remember to get out before Luv reported earnings?

2. In that same video you mentioned around minute 17 that you are using "About 1/2%" for position sizing. I'm not sure how you can do your various Stop calculations on "About 1/2%" don't you need a specific value?

3. Once again, in thiat video, you mention that "92% of prices hold on or tend to go up at the -3rd ATR Channel". I've searched the internet fairly well and I can find no mention of that 92% level anywhere. Did you perform some personal backtesting study to determine that number? Can you provide the source? Is it specific to only Keltner Channels that are based on 20 period moving averages, or does it apply when the moving averages are at different levels?"

thanks,
Ed S.



davesaint86
720 posts
msg #159013
Ignore davesaint86
modified
4/29/2022 11:23:33 AM

Ed,

I have an answer to this question. I created what you see in the image in Excel. The green shaded areas are the only entries one has to make in the spreadsheet. Image one shows the maximum Risk at $10,000 for a SPY trade. Image 2 shows the maximum Risk at $5,000. You can see how number of shares, profit targets, etc change.


2. In that same video you mentioned around minute 17 that you are using "About 1/2%" for position sizing. I'm not sure how you can do your various Stop calculations on "About 1/2%" don't you need a specific value?


https://www.tradingview.com/x/ahZus5I0/

Also, I might have an answer to this question.

3. Once again, in thiat video, you mention that "92% of prices hold on or tend to go up at the -3rd ATR Channel". I've searched the internet fairly well and I can find no mention of that 92% level anywhere. Did you perform some personal backtesting study to determine that number? Can you provide the source? Is it specific to only Keltner Channels that are based on 20 period moving averages, or does it apply when the moving averages are at different levels?"

He told me if price gets go below the -3rd ATR channel or above +3 ATR channel that there is a 92% that price will come back into the channel from below or above sooner than later. It's like Ira Epstein states that if price is below or above the bollinger bands there is a high probability price will move back into the bands within 5 days.

nibor100
938 posts
msg #159014
Ignore nibor100
4/29/2022 6:43:25 PM

@davesaint86,

In regards to my question 2, thanks for the spreadsheet visual but my question to him was basically how do you substitute the phrase "about 1/2%" for either your 5,000 number or the 10,000 number. I was kind of asking a facetious question....

In regards to my question 3, I had the same understanding about what he meant by the 92% at both 3 ATRs.
However, what I really want to know, is where he got the 92% from, as a well known trader, Linda Bradford Raschke, with many more resources than Gossett; did a write-up on Keltner Channels based on 20 period moving avg and found that 95% of prices are contained within 2.5 ATRs.

Remember your are dealing with a part time inquiring mathematician here....as put in a famous tv series from long ago "Just the Facts Mam, Just the facts"

Thanks again,
Ed S.

nibor100
938 posts
msg #159016
Ignore nibor100
5/2/2022 1:31:11 PM

@davesaint86,

Below is Gossett's reply to my prior email:
Ed S.

"Hi Ed,
Nice to hear from you.

I have replied to your questions below:

1. I noticed on the latest weekly video in your discussion of your monthly LUV trade you didn't mention the upcoming earnings date, did you remember to get out before Luv reported earnings?

Yes I did. Whenever I enter a position that is near to earnings I put the earnings date of the chart and also if it is before or after the market closes. So yes I did get out.

2. In that same video you mentioned around minute 17 that you are using "About 1/2%" for position sizing. I'm not sure how you can do your various Stop calculations on "About 1/2%" don't you need a specific value?

I am not sure why I said about ½ of a %. My apologies. I do figure all of my position size and emergency stop based on ½ of a % of the total capital that I have on the day that I take the trade. This is very conservative but I do trade large accounts and this risk percentage fits my personality and risk tolerance nicely.

3. Once again, in that video, you mention that "92% of prices hold on or tend to go up at the -3rd ATR Channel". I've searched the internet fairly well and I can find no mention of that 92% level anywhere. Did you perform some personal backtesting study to determine that number? Can you provide the source? Is it specific to only Keltner Channels that are based on 20 period moving averages, or does it apply when the moving averages are at different levels?

I learned this percentage from Dr. Alexander Elder. I studied with him one on one for three days and he is who taught me about Keltner channels and their chances of holding certain levels. For example the 2nd Keltner channel hold prices 88% of the time.

I hope this helped answer your questions.
If you have any more please just let me know.
Hope that you are doing well Ed!

nibor100
938 posts
msg #159017
Ignore nibor100
5/2/2022 8:00:42 PM

Below is a link to a TradingView chart with my working spreadsheet of Gossett's trades based on his first 5 weeks of weekly videos, doesn't look that good thru early February.

I plan to collect all 4 months of his trading results for further analysis.

Ed S.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YiYWLhco/

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Gossett Trading & Mentoring - 2/12/22 - Review of last week's stock trades & potential stock trade set ups for the upcoming week<< 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 >>Post Follow-up

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