StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Gossett Trading & Mentoring - 2/12/22 - Review of last week's stock trades & potential stock trade set ups for the upcoming week<< 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 >>Post Follow-up
davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158815
Ignore davesaint86
3/14/2022 1:49:29 PM

https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-how-to-trade-the-deep-dip-buy-stock-trading-strategy/

$13.99 (rest of the day)

davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158835
Ignore davesaint86
3/19/2022 5:03:58 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wEBQV6dnH0&t=477s

3/19/22 - Weekly Video

davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158874
Ignore davesaint86
3/24/2022 10:59:40 AM

I started using the Gosset system trading live on March 15th. My trades included AAPL, SPY, AMD and GPRE. AAPL has been my biggest winner. GPRE was the biggest loser. I called my own audible on GPRE and AMD getting out of both early instead of waiting until the end of the day. I was able to salvage a small profit on AMD.

What I like - the risk management (Position sizing, Profit Targets, Can use strategies on all timeframes - which I haven't done yet)

What I do not like - I may not have the discipline to wait until the end of the day (End of the Stop) to sell. Gossett recommends trading his back tested Stock/ETF list which would have been the smarter move. I went off script with GPRE which has an ADR over 5% and I took a loss. If I would have waited until the end of the day I would have lost more.

nibor100
937 posts
msg #158916
Ignore nibor100
4/1/2022 12:55:47 PM

@davesaint86,

Just so you are not blindsided I sent the following to Gossett by email:

Ed S.

Hey Greg,

"I got this email address from a stock trading acquaintance who is currently taking your 5 session 1 on 1 course and he also provided links to some of your Youtube videos.

I watched your 3/26/22 Weekend Edition video and your Daily Live Stream Chart Indicators video and I have a couple of questions:

1. On the Chart Indicators video at minute 17:45 you indicated that you base all of your Keltner Channels off of the 20day Exponential Moving Average yet it appears that on charts such as the one for JO at min 51:20 of the latest Weekend Edition that you are no longer using the 20 day EMA as your Keltner channel basis?

a. I believe that when the 20day EMA is the basis for drawing Keltner Channel Bands that it would always be at the center of the nearest channels/bands, which in your videos are the green lines defining your Value Zone. Yet on the chart of JO, there is a point back in recent history where the 20day EMA actually crosses over and out of the Value Zone!

2. Trying to figure out what you were actually using as the basis for the Keltner Channels on your video charts I determined that the Upper and Lower Keltner Band values displayed at the top of your chart consist of the 1 ATR value being added to a 20day moving average of the Typical Price (High+Low+Close)/3. Is that correct?

a. I don't have Trade Navigator and apparently they don't offer limited day trials so I couldn't test this myself but I did find their Indicators User Manual PDF online and it states that the default Keltner Channels, around page 40, are based on the original method of calculation as determined by Keltner in 1960, which was based on the average of typical prices.

b. Apparently, Trade Navigator has a "Custom Keltner Channel" option where the user can change the moving avg basis and also the basis for the channel calculations."



davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158917
Ignore davesaint86
modified
4/1/2022 5:20:45 PM

Thanks! Below are settings that he recommends. He did admit to me that he uses the EMA version sometimes because it's faster.

Which Charts Indicators I use
and their settings (Page #2)
Keltner Channel Settings
• Number of Bars used in Average = 20 SMA (if not available then EMA)
• Factor Settings = 1 through 3 Standard Deviations
• When finished you will have three separate Keltner Channels above and
below the price
• The (+) and (-) 1 ATR Channel should be colored green
• The (+) and (-) 2 ATR Channel should be light grey color with a thin line
• The (+) and (-) 3 ATR Channel should be dark grey color with a thick line

compound_gains
216 posts
msg #158918
Ignore compound_gains
4/2/2022 3:55:03 PM

@davesaint86
I started using the Gosset system trading live on March 15th...
=====================================================
Which of Gosset's strategies are you using as your AAPL, SPY, AMD and GPRE trades wouldn't be Deep Dip Buys?

Different Types of Deep Dip Buys
▪ Close Under & Close Back Over the 200 SMA or 250 SMA
▪ Intra-Day Rejection and close above the 200 SMA or 250 SMA
▪ Bounce at the 200 SMA or 250 SMA and close above
▪ RSI Reading Goes Below and then closes Back Over the 30 RSI
When using the Deep Dip Buy Approach it should be applied only to stocks and indexes that
have been back tested and are shown to have profitable long term results using the Deep Dip
Buy Approach. In the next three slides I have listed the Indexes and Stocks that do back test
positively over the long term using the 200 SMA and 250 SMA levels.


davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158919
Ignore davesaint86
4/2/2022 5:51:24 PM

All were Deep Dip Buys. I have the Adjust for Dividends option checked in TradingView. See link below. GPRE was a Deep Dip Buy because the price on March 22nd closed above the MA(300). Gosset added the MA(300) into the arsenal due the prolonged downturn. By the way, StockFetcher does not take dividends into consideration or has an option to adjust for dividends.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NW5hMppP/

Below is a Weekly trade I took at the end of the day on Friday. The trade is a closed above the weekly MA(200).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tj7fDedP/

From Greg Gossett about adjusting for dividends and splits. I sent him a question about this topic and below is his response.

"So the signals for the MRK trade on the weekly for me was a rejection of the 200 SMA.

I understand from your question that on your charts the 200 SMA was not tested.

This is not uncommon. My charts are set to adjust for dividends and splits.

Check your charts to make sure you are adjusting for dividends and splits.

Often times over the years my charts do not match up with other people and this is usually the reason.

I have attached a weekly chart of my MRK charts for reference.

Now on IWM the signals were a rejection of the 30 RSI and a rejection of the 100 SMA and a rejection of the -3rd ATR channel on the weekly.

I have also posted a screen shot of the IWM trade.

So if we are not matching up then most likely it is the adjusting for dividends and split setting I mentioned above.

Try and adjust the settings. If you can great but for some reason if you cannot and we still cannot sync up then it's not a problem.

Just trade the charts that you have in front of you.

It's really just about picking the level that is on your charts and respecting those levels.

I hope that this helps David and let me know if changing the dividend setting get's up synched up correctly."


@davesaint86
I started using the Gosset system trading live on March 15th...
=====================================================
Which of Gosset's strategies are you using as your AAPL, SPY, AMD and GPRE trades wouldn't be Deep Dip Buys?

Different Types of Deep Dip Buys
▪ Close Under & Close Back Over the 200 SMA or 250 SMA
▪ Intra-Day Rejection and close above the 200 SMA or 250 SMA
▪ Bounce at the 200 SMA or 250 SMA and close above
▪ RSI Reading Goes Below and then closes Back Over the 30 RSI
When using the Deep Dip Buy Approach it should be applied only to stocks and indexes that
have been back tested and are shown to have profitable long term results using the Deep Dip
Buy Approach. In the next three slides I have listed the Indexes and Stocks that do back test
positively over the long term using the 200 SMA and 250 SMA levels.

davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158920
Ignore davesaint86
4/2/2022 5:54:57 PM

Gossett and his trader partner added a new trading strategy into their arsenal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmeCWULSTHc

I haven't watched the whole video yet. I think it might have to do with Institutional Order Blocks and keying off these levels where the order blocks were purchased or sold. Also, there is a whole series of videos.

nibor100
937 posts
msg #158921
Ignore nibor100
4/2/2022 10:27:31 PM

@davesaint86,

I have some observations that may be of interest to you regarding Gossett's backtesting methodology in relation to Deep Dip Buys as referenced in this paragraph

"When using the Deep Dip Buy Approach it should be applied only to stocks and indexes that
have been back tested and are shown to have profitable long term results using the Deep Dip
Buy Approach. In the next three slides I have listed the Indexes and Stocks that do back test
positively over the long term using the 200 SMA and 250 SMA levels."

I went back to his weekly video of 3/22 where he backtests the 300 day moving avg crossovers for AMD.

1. ETF Replay standard backtest results for any stock that issues dividends is to include the effect of receiving dividends and reinvesting them, while this doesn't matter for AMD, since they don't issue dividends; for many other stocks it can affect backtest results. Another neat feature of the ETF Replay site is their comparison backtest page of their normal Total Return vs. just Price Return in which we can choose any length time period for that comparison.

2. Gossett repeatedly states in his videos that he does not hold positions thru Earnings and doesn't like to get into positions when Earnings are approaching near term.

a. Generally, the longest period between consecutive Earning dates for most stocks is 63 trading days which for simplicity, I'll assume that is the maximum number of days that Gossett has ever been in a Deep Dip trade. (There are many other reasons due his methodologies that he probably is never in a trade that long)

b. The AMD backtest he ran shows the avg hold period for the winning trades was 429 days which clearly is much longer than 63 days, kind of an Apples and Oranges comparison to my way of thinking.
In fact, AMD's shortest winning trade for that backtest was 251 days.

3. He often talks positive Risk Reward when reviewing backtest results such as AMDs yet in most instances the %of winning trades is much lower than the % of losing trades, in AMDs case 31% winners and 68% losers, probably would not matter much if he could let the winners run full term but that clearly is not how he trades. To me it seems like more risk than reward in that instance.

4. AMD's backtest shows about a -85% Max Drawdown which does not seem to phase him a bit, but if my thinking is correct, if you don't hold the winners longer than 63 days their gains don't get as high and then if you then trade the same string of consecutive shorter duration losing trades, the MAX Drawdown percentage will probably increase.

In a change of topic, I noticed that in his videos he shows in each trade he takes his profits and losses achieved but I have yet to run across any statement from him related to long term success rate or achieved annual % gains or losses. Nor does he ever mention if he sets yearly trading goals.

Ed S.



davesaint86
720 posts
msg #158923
Ignore davesaint86
4/3/2022 1:30:27 PM

Ed - All good points.

He looks for confluences of several signals. So say he buys AMD on a 300-day price crossover - he will look and see if price is also crossed up from the -3 Keltner channel band or the MACD turned positive or some other confluence. Usually if there is not a confluence he does not buy. On a daily basis before the market closes he sends me a list of what he may buy. He waits to literally the last 15 seconds or less to pull the trigger. He told me with his trading partner they mostly trade SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT). He trades what you see in his weekly videos. I think he has been pretty transparent. When the market was going down, he reported more losers than winners and the losses he took. He told me he averages between 12 - 18 percent per year from what I remember. He is not claiming 50%+ per year like a lot traders out there on YouTube. He told me his real bread and butter trades are the Return to Value V1/V2 and the Lower-High V1/V2 trades which he usually day trades these signals. He doesn't mentioned these trades in the weekly videos unless he is using the daily or higher timeframes in his charts.

You may find this guy interesting. He calls people out that do not publish their P&L.

https://www.youtube.com/c/REALPLSHOWN



I went back to his weekly video of 3/22 where he backtests the 300 day moving avg crossovers for AMD.

1. ETF Replay standard backtest results for any stock that issues dividends is to include the effect of receiving dividends and reinvesting them, while this doesn't matter for AMD, since they don't issue dividends; for many other stocks it can affect backtest results. Another neat feature of the ETF Replay site is their comparison backtest page of their normal Total Return vs. just Price Return in which we can choose any length time period for that comparison.

2. Gossett repeatedly states in his videos that he does not hold positions thru Earnings and doesn't like to get into positions when Earnings are approaching near term.

a. Generally, the longest period between consecutive Earning dates for most stocks is 63 trading days which for simplicity, I'll assume that is the maximum number of days that Gossett has ever been in a Deep Dip trade. (There are many other reasons due his methodologies that he probably is never in a trade that long)

b. The AMD backtest he ran shows the avg hold period for the winning trades was 429 days which clearly is much longer than 63 days, kind of an Apples and Oranges comparison to my way of thinking.
In fact, AMD's shortest winning trade for that backtest was 251 days.

3. He often talks positive Risk Reward when reviewing backtest results such as AMDs yet in most instances the %of winning trades is much lower than the % of losing trades, in AMDs case 31% winners and 68% losers, probably would not matter much if he could let the winners run full term but that clearly is not how he trades. To me it seems like more risk than reward in that instance.

4. AMD's backtest shows about a -85% Max Drawdown which does not seem to phase him a bit, but if my thinking is correct, if you don't hold the winners longer than 63 days their gains don't get as high and then if you then trade the same string of consecutive shorter duration losing trades, the MAX Drawdown percentage will probably increase.

In a change of topic, I noticed that in his videos he shows in each trade he takes his profits and losses achieved but I have yet to run across any statement from him related to long term success rate or achieved annual % gains or losses. Nor does he ever mention if he sets yearly trading goals.

Ed S.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Gossett Trading & Mentoring - 2/12/22 - Review of last week's stock trades & potential stock trade set ups for the upcoming week<< 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 >>Post Follow-up

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