StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Is there a way to successfully predict which stocks will have "juice" going forward?<< >>Post Follow-up
stephenmcmahon83
13 posts
msg #154958
Ignore stephenmcmahon83
12/15/2020 7:24:32 AM

For many daytrading strategies, the "holy grail" would be to know ahead of time which stocks are going to be very "trendy" (big daily ranges with the open on one side of the range and the close on the other side of the range) for the upcoming month, and then just trade those stocks every day. Is there a way to do this?

Thanks to the tools that many here have created on stockfetcher, it is very easy to discover which stocks have been very trendy LAST month, but predicting going forward seems more difficult.

For example, I have created filters that count how many times in the last 30 days a stock has moved intraday by at least 3% (absolute open - close) and then sorted that list from largest count to smallest count and then tried to trade just those "juicy" stocks for the next month....but I have found the volatility on most of the stocks would "dry up" and I'd lose money applying my strategies.

One school of thought would be that IMPLIED volatility readings on stocks would be a better predicitive tool than HISTORICAL realized volatility, as expressed through pricing in the options market. What do you think?

Have any of you stockfetcher veterans been able to create a tool with a degree of "predictive" ability that can tell you what stocks should remain volatile for the foreseeable future?

Would love to hear others thoughts on this matter.

xarlor
390 posts
msg #154959
Ignore xarlor
12/15/2020 8:48:34 AM

Here is a custom volatility filter I wrote in the past. It compares historical volatility to itself over the last year. This is sorted by those tickers experiencing the highest volatility when comparing to its own baseline over the last year.

I can't say this will work to find your juicy stocks. Perhaps combine it with your other filters and see if it yields good results.

Fetcher[
optionable
not etf

chart-time 1 year
set{cIV,cema(historical volatility(15,1),252)}
set{cIVR, historical volatility(15,1) / civ}
add column cIVR
sort column 5 descending

draw Historical Volatility(15,1)
draw cIV on plot Historical Volatility(15,1)
]



JoeyVinyl
124 posts
msg #154977
Ignore JoeyVinyl
12/16/2020 6:43:58 PM

I could be wrong, but I don't think there are any filters we can create here that will meet your needs well enough. Having said that, there is at least one thing you can filter for here that might help. That would be relative strength against the SPY and QQQ. Stocks or ETFs that have a high RS compared to those indexes are (in my layman's opinion) likely to be more volatile

Other than that I think your best bet would be using your trading platform to look for either gaps or unusual volume overnight, then checking for news about those stocks or ETFs to see what might be causing the jumps.

miketranz
847 posts
msg #154979
Ignore miketranz
modified
12/16/2020 7:40:48 PM

Fetcher[show stocks where the average day range(100) is 3 points or better and Price is between 20 and 300 and Average volume(30) is greater than 5000000
add column Average Volume(30)
add column Average Day Range (30)
]



Try this filter for long range days.Check out "day range" for the biggest movers.Narrow down your picks to stocks that the "open is the low of the day".I'm sure someone on here can help you with that.This is a decent day trading strategy.Buy the open/sell the close.Best,Miketranz...

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Is there a way to successfully predict which stocks will have "juice" going forward?<< >>Post Follow-up

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