StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · @graftonian<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 9 >>Post Follow-up
karennma
7,422 posts
msg #149864
Ignore karennma
12/12/2019 10:35:09 AM

All the stocks I sold back in October of 2018 are now at all time highs.
That was a real mind-fk the "gurus" pulled on everyone in December 2018, saying we were in a bear market.

We'd BEEN in a bear market most of 2018. By the time those a-holes got on the media at the end of year (2018), the "bear" was just about over.
Those bastids are either stupid or they did that on purpose.

Disgusting!

xarlor
145 posts
msg #149865
Ignore xarlor
12/12/2019 12:51:01 PM

Contrarian Investing is a thing for this exact reason.

Cheese
527 posts
msg #149876
Ignore Cheese
12/13/2019 10:29:44 AM

karen, I was wrong, too.
BUT other that, you were right most of the time.
.I hope you were able to buy most of them back at lower prices.
Please post your views more often.

Cheese
527 posts
msg #149877
Ignore Cheese
12/13/2019 10:35:10 AM

xarlor,
so, what would contrarian strategy be like at this point (all time highs followed by all time highs)?
any help with T.A. ?
thanks.

xarlor
145 posts
msg #149883
Ignore xarlor
12/13/2019 5:29:52 PM

Cheese, I'm not an authority on Contrary Opinion (CO). I just learned about it in Weinstein's book where he dedicated several pages to it. In a nutshell, he said when the media is all in agreement and shouting about how great/horrible the market is, that is when you need to perk up. He suggests using multiple "market indicators". These include Advance-Decline Lines, New High-New Low Figures, and "As GM Goes".

"As GM Goes" during the time the book was written was the theory that whatever GM was doing, the market follows. GM was the darling stock in that day and used the "four-month rule." It states that if GM doesn't make a new high (or low) in four months, the current trend is reversing. I updated "As GM Goes" to "As FAANG Goes" as these are the darlings of today's market. Yes, I wrote a filter for it:

Fetcher[
symlist(FB,NFLX,AMZN,AAPL,GOOG,SPY)
chart-time is 4 months

draw wma(150)
set{var1,high 4-month high}
set{4MH,count(high > var1 1 day ago,84)}
add column 4MH
add column var1
draw high 4-month high

set{var2,low 4-month low}
set{4ML,count(low < var2 1 day ago,84)}
add column 4ML
add column var2
draw low 4-month low
]



Contrary Opinion is more of an art, and I'm a horrible artist so it's not something I can put to use accurately. Just another tool for the toolbox. To your question, looking at these market indicators, I don't see any of them hinting at a reversal of the current bullish trend. The media is also split on whether we're on the brink of a big crash or the prevailing trend will continue. When they all start agreeing, though, is when we worry.





Cheese
527 posts
msg #149884
Ignore Cheese
12/13/2019 7:06:47 PM

Thank you very much, xarlor.

karennma
7,422 posts
msg #149888
Ignore karennma
12/14/2019 7:15:34 PM

Oh L8rd! I just looked at a BIDU chart.
I thought it had split!
SMH ...


Cheese
527 posts
msg #149889
Ignore Cheese
12/14/2019 9:44:16 PM

karen,

Chartmill review for BIDU seems mixed and sober
https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/BIDU/fundamental-analysis?key=a3e90839-4bd5-46b3-aaf1-893fa08eb3de&utm_source=stocktwits&utm_medium=FA&utm_content=HEALTH&utm_campaign=social_tracking

but maybe there is some hope emerging for BIDU from this chart ???
https://stockcharts.com/public/1655528/chartbook/700291517

In the future, you may be able to find relevant links to free Chartmill review on Twitter or Stocktwits
https://twitter.com/ChartMill
https://stocktwits.com/ChartMill

Good luck to you

karennma
7,422 posts
msg #149891
Ignore karennma
modified
12/15/2019 8:46:06 AM

@ Cheese,
Thanks for the info.
Awesome chart!

https://stockcharts.com/public/1655528/chartbook/700291517
(Haha - he uses Guppy!)

karennma
7,422 posts
msg #149896
Ignore karennma
12/16/2019 7:55:09 AM

BTW, does anyone know how to write the filter to draw an EMA over an accumulation distribution line?


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · @graftonian<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 9 >>Post Follow-up

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