StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · TRO CROCK POT - SLOW COOKERS FOR SWING TRADERS<< 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 >>Post Follow-up
jimvin
145 posts
msg #137955
Ignore jimvin
9/3/2017 10:37:22 PM

And an unimpressive showing from applying the signals I prefer...

FCAU 14.81-15.13 +7.09%
WERN 32.00-33.45 +4.53%
BRS 8.71-8.85 +3.51%
USAT 5.75-5.60 -2.61%
TPX 61.32-62.20 +1.27%

They work fantastically well for a lot of models, but not applied to this one...

Lapre506
48 posts
msg #138116
Ignore Lapre506
9/12/2017 8:45:50 AM

So read this thread in it's entirety. If I missed it I apologize but did anyone ever decide where the sweet spot is for a stop loss? I saw Snappy in one post mention he uses a 10% and previously in this thread the gentleman that had a ton of success said he never used one at all. That seems crazy to me so there must be a happy medium that allows these stocks some flex room. I'm currently paper trading this method and I am impressed with the hit rate on it. But I don't want that 1 big loser to wipe out weeks of profit.

pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #138117
Ignore pthomas215
9/12/2017 8:57:14 AM

your stop loss is what your risk tolerance is. some use 2% of the portfolio. I use very tight stops because it means to me I had a good decision but a less than optimal entry point.

Lapre506
48 posts
msg #138120
Ignore Lapre506
9/12/2017 10:17:59 AM

Well in this system I feel like a 2% stop loss would have you out of many of these trades way before they ever come back and hit their 1-2% profit mark. In that situation the only trades that would get through are the ones that immediately took off on Monday, or the ones that only slightly dipped on Monday. With a 2% stop loss you'd probably just about break even in this system because you'd be out of so many trades. If the stock crashes on Monday and stops you out at 2% then comes back later in the week to make it's 2% gain it'd be a losing trade for you in this system.

There must be a mathematically figured sound stop loss "sweet spot" for this particular system. I can put faith in the probabilities of stocks to hit their highs. If a stock has done it 50 out of 52 weeks then I can take comfort in the fact that I have a very good chance it does it this week. But you also cannot foresee the future and if I happen to be in one of the 2 out of 52 losing weeks I'd hope to get out with less then 3-5% lost. But does 3-5% give enough room for these weekly plays to play out?

pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #138121
Ignore pthomas215
9/12/2017 10:40:33 AM

I understand your point and it makes sense. There are some situations where just as you are getting the turn you stop out. Im sure some people do use mathematical formulas...I tend to use a mix of a 10 minute view foremost and also a 2 hour view for context. Im sorry I am not helping you--but I think there is a way you can enter without mathematical formulas. i have a land acquisition and development background--you make your margin on the buy end and stocks are no different.

graftonian
927 posts
msg #138122
Ignore graftonian
9/12/2017 11:36:03 AM

I too struggled with this system. If one goes in planning to get out at 2%, the logical stop is down 2% max.
The entry price is key, I finally settled on: 1) no more than 2 % above previous close, 2) above a rising 15 minute EMA(13), 3) Wait 15 minues after open. This improved results a bit, but was far too much work for a scalping system.

snappyfrog
315 posts
msg #138123
Ignore snappyfrog
9/12/2017 12:20:15 PM

I make money using this with minimal effort most weeks. Some weeks I will buy the dip after opening on Monday to avg down.

This shows what I did with the last results I posted:
Stock - Open - High - Percentage
AA - $41.43 - $45.22 - +9.15%
CENX - $18.25 - $20.63 - +13.04%
MYOK - $45.60 - $46.80 - +2.63%
AROC - $10.40 - $10.60 - +1.92%
DVAX - $17.20 - $18.40 - +6.98%

MY RESULTS -
Personally, in this group I had 4 winners and 1 loser. I gained +1.28% this week. (AA +4.83%, CENX +6.03%, MYOK -4.06%, AROC +1.44% and DVAX +1.74%)

***If I did a better job watching these on 5 min bars, I could improve my profit****

As you can see, I only made 1.28% on these 5 picks for the week. But, I spend 15 min on the weekend to run the scan and put in orders and about the same throughout the week looking at it on my phone and selling. Am I making a killing, no. But, having done this for almost 2 years now I have made enough to branch out into scalping and day trading where I make my real money.

I have found the way that works best with this filter (I know it is not designed this way) is to put 20-40 on my watchlist, cull out any that go up Monday morning to 1% or more. I keep culling stocks this way and only buying those where the price has dropped. I look for a bullish signal to get in Mon or Tues in some cases.

With an 86% success rate of these hitting 1%-5% each week, this gives me more profit on each trade with a little more work. I love using this filter in this way and I have made great money by deviating my trading style from how it was designed.

Lapre506
48 posts
msg #138402
Ignore Lapre506
9/27/2017 10:19:35 AM

So.. I guess you can consider me an understudy to Snappyfrog at this point. I've been live with this filter for 2 weeks now. After conversing and using some of Snappys alterations to the system as well as a couple of my own to maximize performance. I'm not trading with a ton of capital yet but in the two weeks my overall balance is up 7.34%

I altered the filter and made an alternate for 10W time period rather then 52. Trying to capture stocks that have been consistent more recently (many stocks show up on both). I also gave the stocks a bit of a "slugging percentage" formula similar to how real slugging % works in baseball. So a 2% gain is worth more then 1. 4% is worth more then 2. Kinda like singles, doubles, triples, and 5% is my HR.

Anyway I split my capital up into 4 positions and on Monday at open I buy two of the stocks that have gone 10/10 in the 1% and 2% categories that have the highest slugging percentage. The other 2 positions I don't buy until the 2-2:30 afternoon lull on Monday. The criteria for these 2 is they must have opened and gone straight down, or not spiked up close to the 1% gain.

Whatever positions I sell on Monday gets reinvested into more stocks that went down at open and haven't recovered yet. So in all I ended up playing 15 positions over the past two weeks.

Out of 15 these are my returns:
2.15%
0.73%
1.22%
0.89%
3.12%
-3.85%
2.27%
0.00%
1.29%
4.66%
-0.07%
3.32%
1.17%
3.62%
0.00%

I'm using RobinHood so which has no commissions so I have no issue cutting a position off for breakeven. I don't have to worry about "atleast making commissions back" which is a relief. 'm still quite protective of my capital and haven't learned how to "let my winners run" so I end up using tight manual trailing stops and get stopped out alot. But I'm also happy to take any profits. I'm going to have to train myself to have faith in the high probability of this system.

But yea this system works even with my protective flaws as a trader.

snappyfrog
315 posts
msg #138624
Ignore snappyfrog
10/7/2017 7:14:18 PM

For what it's worth, I am sorting by 5% this week and these are my 5 picks.

HMNY, EDIT, IMGN, MRNS and EMES

I will post an update next weekend.

VenturaTrader
37 posts
msg #138630
Ignore VenturaTrader
10/8/2017 7:50:51 PM

Snappy,

I liked the idea of the Crock Pot so I did an informal back-test going back about six months examining more than 100 trading candidates. The four weekly candidates with the highest score were tracked. For the most part the system is profitable and it is likely you will hit some profit targets up to 5%, some picks have up to 20% profit. But the downfall of the strategy is with the occasional stinker with losses of up 20%.

You can't assume the prices move straight up to hit the profit target on the way up to the high of the week. The low of the week also needs to be considered because it you employ any kind of stop, that could be hit on the way to your profit target.

I set this strategy aside for now; if you can figure out way to deal with losses in this strategy please post and please post how your weekly picks perform.

Mike

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