StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · 2008 redux and your version of Market Timing?<< >>Post Follow-up
dashover
202 posts
msg #134310
Ignore dashover
modified
2/14/2017 11:09:12 PM

If you had to relive 2008, what would you use to move your 401k to cash ~ and back in at the appropriate time?

I am comfortable day and swing trading, but I second guess myself with long term assets...

Would rely on?
SPY dropping < ma (200)
Slope of the 50 ma or 200ma?
10/30 weekly ma cross?
50/100 daily ma cross?
Simple support and Resistance of the SPY?
A relative strength matrix of 10 asset classes and seeing cash moving up the list.
The last 90days being positive ~ keeping you invested. (Check weekly)


Every time I look at SPY in 2008 ish, I wonder if I would do a better job stepping to the side and getting in before missing 30% of the move back up, that the moving averages provided in early 2009.
The moving averages cross (ma (50) ... around 90, missing the first 30% of the up move...

Thanks!

Dash

Mactheriverrat
2,588 posts
msg #134311
Ignore Mactheriverrat
2/14/2017 11:59:28 PM

Not trying be smarta## but I would say cash would be king and be ready for the rebound.

pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #134312
Ignore pthomas215
2/15/2017 12:00:29 AM

shillihs posted this awhile back. its pretty good.


I suppose if cci(39) is -200, you would enter SPY and then exit at your own judgement, around 200. or around 0 if markets are a bit more normalized...meaning we are in such a strange bull over the past 7 years.

Fetcher[draw weekly ift(2,1)
draw weekly ift(2,1) line at .4
draw weekly ift(2,1) line at .9
draw weekly ift(2,1) line at -.9
draw weekly ift(2,1) line at -.95

draw monthly cci(39) line at 0
draw quarterly cci(39) line at 0
symlist(spy)
]



davesaint86
585 posts
msg #134373
Ignore davesaint86
2/17/2017 1:48:39 PM

Dashover - I've been thinking about the same thing. Most 401k plans (like my wife's) allow you to reallocate every 30 days. I can trade mine every 15 days so I have more flexibility. In fact I can trade my selections at any time but will be subject to a 1.5% fee if I do not wait the full 15 days.

In my 401k I'm using the Kevin Solely Based on Price filter (3 week version). Look at the one with the trailing stop. The trailing stop is set at 10% below the 10 week high. I changed mine to 92.5 or 7.5% off the 10 week high.

I'm having trouble figuring out what to do with my wife's 401k as a strategy. I backtested picking the top 3-month fund and staying in that fund until another rises to the top. The results are decent. However if the market tanks quickly (Like Jan 2016-down 14 %) and all equity funds are tanking I would want to head for the exits as quickly as possible. I even thought of a strategy of buying and selling in increments based on price moving up and down over select moving averages. For example, I do not think the price for the SPY did not cross over the 200 ma until August and you would have lost out on an extra 16% in gains. So allocated 25% when price crosses above the 50 ma, then another 25% above the 100ma and then the last 50% price crosses above the 200 or 250 ma. I would only do this probably in a 2002 or 2008 type correction

Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #134377
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
2/17/2017 3:11:00 PM

Just allocate based on the performance over the last three months - you will never catch the tops and bottoms so don't try. Focus instead on catching the meat of the move.

Even easier is to simplify your choices down to either stocks (SPY) or bonds (AGG) - be wholly invested in whichever has the higher ROC(63,1)

Fetcher[
symlist(SPY,AGG)
add column roc(63,1)
sort on column 5 descending
]



Update - the goal of this approach is to avoid hard drawdowns, not to maximize return. This is a simple risk-adjustment approach that historically beats market returns over a 5 year period with lower drawdown, and trades assets classes that are always options within a typical 401k. Trades are conducted at the end of each month so it also fits with the typical reallocation limits of many 401k accounts.

shillllihs
5,488 posts
msg #134379
Ignore shillllihs
2/17/2017 3:25:16 PM

All you need to know.


BEAR MARKET
When monthly ma2 closes above ma21 using SH as your instrument.

davesaint86
585 posts
msg #134381
Ignore davesaint86
2/17/2017 4:05:02 PM

ETF Replay shows since 2003

For AGG and SPY
9.9% Quarterly
8.8 % Monthly

For AGG, SPY, IWM, EFA (Higher Drawdowns)
12.9% Quarterly
13.4% Monthly
14% Monthly Using a 5 Month MA

I tested Kevin's 3 Week Price Filter using the Russell 2000 (2015 & 2016) since I can trade in my 401k every 15 days.

2015 - 4 Trades -1.57%
2016 - 5 Trades 32.55%

gmg733
788 posts
msg #134389
Ignore gmg733
2/18/2017 10:55:13 AM

There are a couple ways to time it. Here is one http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5 on charts 57

I also watched the monthly moving averages from mebane faber work which can be found here https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/01/31/moving-averages-january-month-end-update

This are more in market or out of market methologies. I am a big advocate of winning by not losing.

davesaint86
585 posts
msg #134390
Ignore davesaint86
2/18/2017 11:21:04 AM

Here are some more.

http://mysavingsplan.weebly.com/strategy-part-i.html
http://mysavingsplan.weebly.com/strategy-part-ii.html
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNYA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p79853252131
http://www.buydonthold.com/category/blog/


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · 2008 redux and your version of Market Timing?<< >>Post Follow-up

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