| c1916 77 posts
 msg #135109
 - Ignore c1916
 | 3/24/2017 4:24:07 PM 
 I give you and Kevin a great deal of credit for your reads today.  You guys have to admit that those were binary calls that couldn't possibly have been generated by a filter or signal, unless one of you geniuses has invented a filter to consider politics in real time.
 
 In the muddle this afternoon, I started pricing out protection in case the vote happened and lost after the close, as this weekend would have been a quagmire.  I certainly didn't have the guts to double down on XIV or short TVIX during that hour or so.
 
 Sometimes just sitting tight is OK too.
 
 
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| shillllihs 6,101 posts
 msg #135110
 - Ignore shillllihs
 | 3/24/2017 4:44:38 PM 
 Well speaking for myself, thank you very much!!
 
 
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| pthomas215 1,251 posts
 msg #135112
 - Ignore pthomas215
 | 3/24/2017 5:08:47 PM 
 i second that notion.  took guts for you guys to take on that short.  credit where credit is due!
 
 
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| four 5,087 posts
 msg #135113
 - Ignore four
 modified
 | 3/24/2017 5:36:13 PM 
 Picture of TVIX trade [shillllihs trade today]
 -- Shorted 10% and 15% move up on the day. Doubled 10% [1200 shares] order at 15% [2400 shares] move.
 
 
   
 http://imgur.com/a/fl5P4
 
 
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| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts
 msg #135114
 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA
 | 3/24/2017 6:59:07 PM 
 @Four:
 
 When did TVIX get to $44?  The high for today was only $43.20.  Even your own graphic shows the high was $43.17.  I don't think any second position at $44 was possible.
 
 @Shilllihs - care to comment?
 
 
 
 
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| shillllihs 6,101 posts
 msg #135115
 - Ignore shillllihs
 | 3/24/2017 7:48:50 PM 
 I was confused a little, maybe he was showing what could have been.
 
 
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| four 5,087 posts
 msg #135116
 - Ignore four
 modified
 | 3/24/2017 9:53:47 PM 
 I used these two posts...
 
 
 shillllihs
 2,843 posts
 msg #135101
 - Ignore shillllihs 	3/24/2017 2:58:47 PM
 
 SHORT. 1200 Sh. TVIX. 42.06
 
 Simply the best.
 
 **
 
 shillllihs
 2,843 posts
 msg #135103
 - Ignore shillllihs 	3/24/2017 3:02:41 PM
 
 Adding 2400 at 44
 
 
 
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| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts
 msg #135117
 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA
 | 3/24/2017 10:02:44 PM 
 Well, the first post was him using his "Kevin Oops" strategy, and the second one never filled.
 
 
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| davesaint86 726 posts
 msg #135135
 - Ignore davesaint86
 modified
 | 3/25/2017 7:55:47 PM 
 C1916 - You stated that the trade had to be a binary call and a filter could have not called the trade.  I just happened to see the shillllihs post on SF as soon as he posted so I went to my 5 min chart and watch XIV do this.
 
 https://invst.ly/3j7my
 
 
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| c1916 77 posts
 msg #135136
 - Ignore c1916
 | 3/25/2017 9:57:41 PM 
 OK...I never intended to get in the middle of the did-he/didn't-he argument.  If any of you had the balls to short the TVIX or buy XIV when it looked like the bill was going to come up for a vote and fail, I give you credit, binary or not.
 
 I stick by the theory that there isn't a filter out there that can represent political black swanesque events in real time, but if there is I look forward to seeing it posted here to the benefit of all of SF.  :)
 
 
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