ClayDavis68
8 posts
msg #136857
- Ignore ClayDavis68 |
7/18/2017 11:49:16 PM
I can do research, look at charts etc. in depth once a week, sometimes 2 times per week. Day trading isn't really an option–I can't watch that closely during the day and I'm inexperienced.
I tried a sort or trend following strategy the last month or so:
Buying on:
50ma crossing above 100ma
50 day high
Postion size:
.02 x Account value/ATR(30) x price
Trailing stop:
ATR x 3
This strategy is not doing as well as I hoped. I'm losing money. But then I've read the first trend following guys expected to lose 70% of the time(?) But maybe if I'm willing to accept some risk, I should be ready to accept some losses. Don't know. I don't like seeing the damn red numbers every day.
I combined a growth/value/small cap screen with the previously mentioned technicals. This yields only 1-3 results AND my greedy little self wants them to grow faster than they do.
My question is: Can anyone recommend a fairly reliable strategy or direction given the time I can devote to this stuff and where I hold something for a week to a month or more?
I'm ok with Technical or fundamental or both, and not afraid of some volatility. Just not the level that day traders are used to.
Any advice is appreciated.
Thanks,
Clay
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graftonian
1,089 posts
msg #136873
- Ignore graftonian |
7/19/2017 12:23:48 PM
Clay, Check out TRO and Kevins comments on the "crockpot" series of filters.
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Mactheriverrat
3,157 posts
msg #136874
- Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified |
7/19/2017 12:27:05 PM
I would keep learning what I could whenever I could, don't real trade until you can find a system that you win on a regular basis. Technical advise is what you will find here on SF- The forums have very good past posts on it. Its a learning process and your on the right track.
Like I said don't real time trade until you have system that you win on a regular basis. Reason is you could blow up you account , then you will really feel bad. I've blown up my account twice and its not a very good feeling but looking back it was a hard learning experience .
Welcome aboard.
also see what graftonian posted above.
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ClayDavis68
8 posts
msg #136877
- Ignore ClayDavis68 |
7/19/2017 3:00:38 PM
Thanks guys. will do.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #136880
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
7/19/2017 4:25:20 PM
Two suggestions:
1) Trade ETFs rather than stocks - reduce the "universe" in which you trade down to a handful of highly liquid ETFs that cover a decent range of options. There is always a bull market somewhere, and ETFs will let you access it. Individual stocks are more lie a crap shoot - look more at the sector and asset class ETFs.
2) Super simple system - you are either in stocks (SPY) or Bonds (AGG). If the 3 month performance of stocks is greater than that of bonds, stay in stocks. When the 3 month performance of Bonds is greater than stocks, switch to bonds. Check only once at the end of each month. This approach is tailor-made for 401(k) accounts where you must choose asset class funds and cannot trade in and out too frequently.
Here's a simple filter to follow this approach:
This approach is one of the easiest ways to start investing and still get a good night's sleep.
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shillllihs
6,047 posts
msg #136881
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
7/19/2017 5:02:21 PM
Play strictly ETFs or mutual funds (for safety) and look at sectors that have been beaten up the longest, such as KOL.
Play ETFs or mutual funds that are under 10, I know they say that nav doesn't mean anything, but I think it does. Most ETFs or mf bottom under 10, then go as high as 50 to 100.
Stay away from leveraged ETFs for now. We will save the greatest strategy, shorting inverse leveraged ETFs for when you have more time.
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spauken
47 posts
msg #136892
- Ignore spauken |
7/20/2017 10:58:16 AM
Here is my plan: I invest (long only) in only liquid, low volatility ETF's that pay a good dividend as long as the 15 day MA is above the 45 day MA. These moving averages were chosen since backtesting indicated they were consistently the most profitable. Most trades last for a few weeks to months.
At this time, in what I believe is a wildly over valued market, I am content to collect dividends and bide my time until realistic values return again, which they will. I realize JNK and SJNK may be somewhat risky, but I have chosen to accept that risk for now in return for the yield. Here is the filter I use:
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shillllihs
6,047 posts
msg #136893
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
7/20/2017 12:13:03 PM
Here's what I would do with your system to collect a hefty dividend plus appreciation and
It pays monthly.
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spauken
47 posts
msg #136897
- Ignore spauken |
7/20/2017 1:04:48 PM
Yes, MORL does pay a hefty dividend, however, the largest portion of it is paid quarterly. Additionally, MORL doesn't satisfy two of my personal parameters - it's too volatile and there's not enough liquidity.
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shillllihs
6,047 posts
msg #136899
- Ignore shillllihs |
7/20/2017 1:18:34 PM
Well with your EMA parameters and an 18 month return of about 65% that shouldn't matter but hey, that's just me.
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