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| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29442 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/23/2003 5:27:47 PM Notice how all 3 areas where these short term intraday trendlines intersected the price there was a decisive action. The first and most aggressive TL at about $17.45 was broken at 3:46. From here the stock avalanched to the next trendline at $17.25 where it struggled a while then broke through to the final supporting TL at $17.10. Here it managed a bounce with very aggressive buying volume creating a new buy signal as the trendline formed from the high of 3:35 @ $17.48 to the high at 4:25 @ $17.26 was broken creating a buy signal at 4:55 @ $17.15 as this 5 min. candlestick tested this TL as support while at the same time tested TL support that was formed at the start of the day @ $17.10. NVDA went on to then test the price resistance at $17.25 and also the 4 HR.MA ( 50 periods on the 5 minute chart ) as resistance. I suspect traders are expecting the NASDAQ to bounce tomorrow and test the upper channel as resistance so they took up positions in NVDA at the end of the session. This is why In think it is a good idea to pay close attention to trendlines. I suspect that most technical traders are also and it is on these intraday charts where the first signs of strength and weakness are often seen. These strategies can be used with any chart periodicity for taking positions ( depending on your trading time frame & technical picture ) and for conserving capitol. I used the 5 minute chart because a lot happens in a short time and one can see these formations occur throughout the session. Notice that a position taken this morning as NVDA broke trendline resistance would not have lost any money had TLs been used for buy and sell signals. For the aggressive day trader a buy at around $17.03 ~ $17.05 and close at around $17.45 ~ $17.40 would have been a quick 2% just using trend lines. JMHO |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #29445 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 12:54:41 AM EWZuber: Do you use candle charts? I use 1, 3, 5, 15, 30 and 60 minute candle charts to signal entry/exit. I draw trendlines on my esignal screen and use the fib lines on my quotetracker screen. Would like to exchange screen shots if you like. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29452 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/24/2003 11:03:31 AM Yes, I use candlestick charts. I don't have a JPG program right now so it isn't practical to send pictures. Particularly with half a phone line connection. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29453 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/24/2003 11:37:08 AM The 50 DMA for NVDA is now in a slight downtrend so the opportunity for a quick move seems to be lost for now. NVDA has followed along the 25 DMA down to where it has converged with the 15 DMA and bounced up off the 15 DMA as support for now. Looking for a 15/50 DMA cross. Since the 15 & 200 DMAs are the only DMAs that NVDA has that are still in an uptrend it will just about have to use these if it's going to buck the market trend & move higher. JMHO |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29457 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/24/2003 12:42:16 PM I posted the following 5 days ago and its worth reading again. 10/19/2003 1:54:22 PM Of course stocks can always do the surprising move, but NVDA is a dog from my point of view. There is nothing there to recommend it. One of the worst things a trader can do is anticipate a reversal. It's like predicting the end of the world. This stock only knows one direction. DOWN. It could and probably will do a short bounce from these levels because its oversold, but that is about it. OVERSOLD does not indicate more buyers than sellers, oversold, where the stock just keeps diving has nothing to recommend it. This stock tried to break out of a double bottom and failed, heading lower. So the best you can hope for is a triple bottom formation in about a month or so. The chart starts at the upper left and without break or letup goes to the bottom right. I don't need any indicators to tell me this stock only knows one direction. DOWN. It's sorry performance during a very bullish phase of the market is another indicator. It's not testing anything but new lows and most likely will revisit the $15.70 area again. From there it might struggle up to the $17.50 for another test. That is only a 11% climb and could take another month to complete. It's a snorer. The Bollinger Bands have not come together, which means either the stock will continue to go down or it will take some time to base before making a substantial move. It just recently fell below the 200 day average, the 50 day average is falling like a rock and the 20 day likes to stay below the 50 day. This is a bearish chart. The weekly chart shows a real nice stair step to hell. ============================================================================ There is more blood than money in trying to catch falling knives. NVDA has not gone through the bottoming process and should be avoided. I would not be surprised to see it test the 15.70 - 16.00 area before heading up. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #29460 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 1:57:00 PM EWZuber: Did you hear something? Did someone else post something? Guess we're ignoring it..lol Did you see what EXTR did today? Over $1 gain so far... Not bad on a $7 stock this morning in premarket. Not to mention on a red day (when some are in bed). Hmmmmm guess RSI(2) is just something a "one trick pony" uses to make money...LOL!! Right now, the Nasdaq is bottoming on the lower lin reg line and the DOW is heading towards the lower lin reg line. Get ready to load the boat! MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #29461 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 1:59:01 PM NVDA as I see it... heading south on rsi(2) but at the bounce point of the last two times. EWZuber, your slow stoch (5,3) tells me to wait for an entry. Also volume is down a bit. And it is in the upper half of the bollinger band range. Chart says WAIT. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #29462 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 2:03:17 PM NVDA continued... It peaked on the 5 day intraday chart on Tuesday... and looks like it is doing a Fib retrace... go for nickel and dime scalps all day long for those inclined. $17.00 area not for the faint at heart! |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29464 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/24/2003 5:18:38 PM No didn't hear anything. I think the bounce up off of trendline support @ $16.86 was a good entry point. There was another good entry for a very short term play at $16.94 today @ 4:27 when the stock broke a short term resistance trendline. A little more risky holding a short term position overnight though. As long as the same criteria is used to exit these positions ( exiting on a break of trendline support ) so far they would have all been money makers. I like the $16.86 entry because that is dead on support and if it breaks that level then for me I know its time to exit and with 1% loss or so is not a problem. Intraday opportunities have been good. I have found NVDA an easy read for intraday charts and a good one for day trading if one takes only well timed entries and exits. I suspect that soon one of these plays will not result in a break of a short term supporting trendline and the longer term trade will establish itself. One month trendline support is right below the stock now and also ( I think this could be very important ) NVDA bounced up off of a resistance trendline started from the high of 9/9 today at almost exactly the same time it bounced up off of the 1 month supporting trendline! For a those that are not such active traders a break above the trendline formed from the high at 2:30 @ $17.88 on 10/21 across the high at 2:30 @ $17.50 on 10/23 takes us to about $17.15( &n falling ) on Mondays Hourly chart and also on the Daily chart. It is this line that I suspect will confirm a move substantial enough for an end of day trader to take a position. JMHO I am not advocating that anyone do this. These writings are strictly for educational purposes and discussion. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29465 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/24/2003 5:29:09 PM To clarify; One month trendline support is right below the stock ( @ $16.86 & rising ) and also ( I think this could be very important ) NVDA bounced up off of a resistance trendline that started from the high of 9/9 across the high of 9/19 ( to the present ) at almost exactly the same time it bounced up off of the 1 month supporting trendline! This is one feature I like about Bigcharts. If you draw a very accurate trendline on the daily charts and then switch to the ( say ) 10 day hourly chart, the trendlines remain intact and give you a magnified view of the situation. |
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