EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31273
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/3/2004 4:13:10 PM
Missed the re-entry on FMDAY. All my watch lists got deleted from my hard drive.
FMDAY closed up 84.5% today !!!! AAAAHHHH
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31276
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/4/2004 5:33:48 PM
ASX looking good. In had a suspicion that it would gap up tomorrow morning. Picked up some just before the close. This is not technically set up the way i like, however what I found compelling is the lack of selling volume even when the stock gapped down. This tells me that share holders are hanging on to positions.
Now I see that INTC has lowered forcasts for Q1. That could be real bad for semi's tomorrow.
Looks like EMRG wants to move higher.
There have been dozens of promising set ups out there right now, the problem is trying to decide which ones to choose. INTC may set things back some though.
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donblack32
17 posts
msg #31292
- Ignore donblack32 |
3/5/2004 10:24:06 AM
Can anyone explain why one of our MM picks (FAX) behaved the way it did this morning? It went from 6.50 to 3.50 in a nano second then returned. Of course, it triggered my stop loss. These kinds of things scare me.
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wallman
299 posts
msg #31297
- Ignore wallman |
3/5/2004 6:44:18 PM
Hi Don....couple of observations here,first,this must have been a paper trade?,because i see a lod on FAX of 6.31 both on Scottrade and on PN,also i know that being a AMEX stock,at least on the broker i use,Scottrade,that these "false" gapdowns and gapups appear quite frequently,in the last week i've seen it happen to GEB,HBY,APT,i know for a fact it didn't happen to them ....also if as in MM you are talking of the Muddy Method,FAX would never be considered as a watch,if you read the files you'll see NO mutual fund "type" stocks such as FAX,a prime income fund stock,are ever considered,look at the 52 week high and low of this stock,7.06 and 4.72,not even 100% in the spread,to me the risk/reward ratio in these type of stocks is not even close to being on my side....as far as hard stops go,if this did happen to FAX,this is why i never use them,a gapdown such as this can really hurt,imo you are better off taking your chances that you will at least recoup some of your losses from these gapdowns,a hard stop won't protect you in situations when the price blows right through your stop anyway,i had it happen to me on EDEN on 3-6 where i was down 40% at the open,on 3-13 i took a 25% gain on this stock,a difference of 65%!
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cegis
235 posts
msg #31301
- Ignore cegis |
3/5/2004 8:23:01 PM
Hi Don,
The rumor I heard is that a market maker is looking for some added liquidity, so he makes a small (like 100 shares), unreasonable trade with another MM, at something that'll trip a bunch of stops (usually way off current bid/ask). Result: Instant market orders that they can snap up at their desired price...
I watch several stocks a day on Ameritrade's real time charts, and see these spikes almost daily. Depending on the stock, I might see it three or four times on one stock in a given day!
I also see some big blocks cross the tape somewhat off current price. My gut tells me these trades were made earlier, and are crossing the tape "late". Or, maybe selling 50,000 or 100,000 shares in one chunk requres some "slack"... (Although I have no real basis for these guesses...)
Physical stops force discipline, but they CAN be have a down side. Mental stops REQUIRE discipline, so don't use them if you don't got it!
C
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gscott66
7 posts
msg #31303
- Ignore gscott66 |
3/5/2004 9:52:52 PM
Hello,
I am new to SF and I was wondering if the Yahoo group (Muddy) is still active and is it worth joining. I just finished reading some of the "one day shoot out" dialogue from last year and I'm a little confused about the current state of the union. Is John G. and RumpledOne still around? Also, any other advice or guidance is greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance! PS...what is the most consistant filter being used at the moment?
Scott
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donblack32
17 posts
msg #31305
- Ignore donblack32 |
3/5/2004 11:22:12 PM
Thanks cegis and wallman for taking the time to sooth my pain. Wallman, could you elaborate a little on your comments about the 52 week high and low and the spread, risk/reward.
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txtrapper
548 posts
msg #31309
- Ignore txtrapper |
3/6/2004 2:39:54 PM
gscott66 3/5/2004 9:52:52 PM
Hello,
I am new to SF and I was wondering if the Yahoo group (Muddy) is still active and is it worth joining. --------------------
Comment; The http://groups.yahoo.com/group/StockFetcher/ is the Muddy Group and is very active. As far as consistant filters the MM three day down is the best filter for consistancy day in day out.
TxTrapper
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31313
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/7/2004 3:56:33 AM
donblack32, here's another theory.
Someone may have seen that there was a a huge block at a stop loss around $3.45.
The potential buyers may have waited until there was a minimum of shares that were between the current Bid and the stop loss.
When the time was right they hit the market with a block 'market sell' that was calculated to take out all buyers down to the big block of shares that was sitting on a stop loss.
When the stop price was met these shares then became available as a 'sell @ market' and whoever manipulated the market bought them up fast and cheap.
Very dirty business.
According to my intraday charts there were a huge number if shares traded during that 1 minute time period. It was the biggest volume of the day during any 1 minute period.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31319
- Ignore EWZuber |
3/8/2004 3:09:29 AM
EAG...looks very good for Monday. I will be watching for a break of TL resistance.
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